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Thinking not about personality or campaign style but about the demographic composition of the coalitions they've each assembled, it strikes me that Obama vs. Clinton comes down to a black Howard Dean vs Bill Clinton minus blacks. Obama attracts the same upscale voters and younger voters that fueled Dean. But he adds overwhelming support from African Americans to the Dean coalition. Clinton's base of support is pretty much the traditional democratic base, but with African Americans subtracted. That's why I say it's Bill Clinton minus black support. African Americans hardly ever go for the Dean-type candidate. Against candidates that can hold the traditional coalition more or less together, Howard Dean, Gary Hart, Jerry Brown types are usually more or less long lasting flashes in the pan in Democratic primaries. This year African Americans have "defected" from the core democratic coalition to the Deaniac demographic, not because of Obama's policies or his stance on the war, but because of who he is. By the way, I don't mean to say that's a good or bad thing. It's just there. But it's a major big deal, because it deprives Clinton of one major component of the traditional coalition.
Don't know what this means for the future of the democratic race or for the GE. One could think that Hilary, if she is the nominee, could have no problem bringing AA's home -- as long as she doesn't trash Obama in the process and turn the AA voter off. That's because she's basically the kind of candidate who, in another situation, would have rock solid AA support. But the tricky thing for her is that it's hard to see how she even begins to make any inroads into the AA vote. Obama has that completely and utterly sewed up. And without doing that, the best she can hope for is a draw. Certainly trashing Obama and going relentlessly negative -- which is the standard political play in a situation like this -- would do her no good. We've already seen ample evidence of that.
On the other hand, Obama, if he is to become the nominee, has to close the deal with the other elements of the traditional democratic coalition -- especially women, working class whites, hispanics, older voters. I think it's no more likely that he can peel significant chunks of these away from Clinton than it is that Clinton can peel significant chunks of AA's away from him -- although maybe if he had enough time hispanics might be movable.
If Obama does become the nominee, I think one thing that may make "downscale" and older whites more up for grabs is that they do tend to want a president who is "strong" and can "stand-up" for them. They care about personal security, economic security, and also to an extent national security --especially the guys in this cohort. I don't think Obama has yet sold himself as a "security provider" and might have a very hard time doing that against John McCain.
Just a few thoughts. HOpe nobody takes offense.
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