Obama landslides could break deadlock

[BluegrassDem]

"Barack Obama’s landslide victories in three mid-sized states Saturday suggest that he has the opportunity build a significant lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton among the locked-in “pledged” delegates before the candidates face off in the big battlegrounds of Ohio and Texas on March 4.

The results in Washington and Nebraska vindicated Obama’s strategy of preparing expensive efforts to organize votes after the Feb. 5 contests that many expected – wrongly — effectively to decide the race. Clinton’s campaign, meanwhile, downplayed its own efforts in the states, though she did air television ads in both Washington and Nebraska."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8416.html

[newmajority]

1. Well, I can't speak for Nebraska

But the TV ad she ran in Washington was pathetic. It started running Wednesday, and then was on TV literally every 15 minutes right up until this morning. After seeing the ad once you cringe. Twice in one half hour and you're reaching for the remote. And if you're remote is broken, you throw something at the TV.

I doubt she gained a single vote from that crap ad.

[arewenotdemo]

2. Good to hear and I hope

that she'll blanket the upcoming primary states with it.

[Kahuna]

12. Poor woman. Her voice is cringe-worthy. That should drive some votes

Obama's way.

[ellisonz]

5. The skydiving one?

If you look closely, the divers in the first and final shots are different people.

[TexasObserver]

18. that skydiving commercial is like her campaign - in free fall after the chute didn't open

[BanzaiBonnie]

3. I received two phone calls from Hillary

one from former Washington Governer Gary Locke and a couple more from the Clinton camp. I was tired of the phone calls.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Politico really seems to like Barack Obama

Just sayin'.

--p!

[TomClash]

6. This is dumb - do the math

Even if he builds a 150 pledged delegate lead Hillary can erase that lead on March 4 because 444 delegates are chosen in Ohio, Texas, VT and RI.

[Perry Logan]

7. Here's the debunk. Further proof that all pro-Obama threads are 100% caca.

This is fun. All you do is:

1) find a pro-Obama thread.
2) look through the responses.

There's always one or more complete refutations. But the Obamites just go on truckin'. I think they have the debunkers on "Ignore," the poor dears.

[TomClash]

8. That's dumb too

I'm pro-Obama since Edwards dropped out.

[Perry Logan]

9. Go ahead--try it. It works every time, if you don't have everyone on "Ignore."

[cali]

10. Well let's look at it. He's only 10 pts behind

in TX. He's going to win by 20+ points in Vermont. Either he wins or is close in RI. I don't see her blowing him out of the water in Ohio. Success breeds success and he's going to have almost three more weeks of it success before March 4. She can't do much more than split the delesgates with him in TX, OH and RI.

[TomClash]

17. Even the pledged delegate count is unclear to me

And remember there are 2 debates between now and March 4. You could be right, but who knows what can happen? If he wins OH and TX it's all over but the shouting. I think RI goes for Hillary and VT goes for Barack. But if she wins OH and TX, she cuts his lead a lot.

This all means there will be a huge fight to seat the MI and FLA delegates, another battle at the state convetions to steal caucus delegates and a some deals with the SDs. How that plays out is anyone's guess.

[intaglio]

11. Do the math

Let's say Clinton wins delegates 60/40 (which she has not done in any states bar Arkensas and Oklahoma) she gains 266 delegates. Obama gains 178. she has only caught up by 88 votes Obama still leads by 62 pledged delegates.

IF she wins big a more likely split is 55/45 which is 244/200 Obama leads by 106 pledged delegates.

There is a much bigger chance of Obama winning delegates 55/45 which means super delegates start being put out of play

What do you call a Clinton hopemonger?

[TomClash]

16. You assume delegates are proportional - they are not.

Plus, I think 150 is a larger lead than he will have. But even if he leads by 100 after March 4, she still has PR and PA and that's another 271 delegates. She will try to seat FLA and MI. And that may give her the lead in pledged delegates.

My point is that it's not over even if he runs the table before March 4 and then she wins OH and TX. If he wins TX and OH it's probably over.

I'm for Barack, not Hillary.

[intaglio]

19. All Dem contests are - roughly - proportional

and you get extras if you are over 60% Hillary doesn't do over 60% very well

[CanonRay]

13. Check my math, but to do that she needs to...

win 297 delegates (222 plus 75) to his 147. That's a pretty big motza ball. Maybe she will, quien sabe.

[Pab Sungenis]

15. She'd still need to win those four by astounding amounts.

If she wins them 60%-40%, she'd only come out 88 delegates ahead, not enough to erase the gap. She'd need to win 70%-30% to erase a 150 delegate lead if Obama built that one up. Has she won any of the big states head-to-head by that kind of margin?

More likely is that she'll win those four by a ten point margin, which would give her 244 delegates and Obama 200 out of that day's race, leaving her probably 6 delegates behind Obama. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, or both Vermont and Rhode Island, I doubt she'll have the momentum to make it to Pennsylvania.


Hillary's only hope right now is to sweep the March 4th primaries by 60% or greater, then win Pennsylvania by a convincing margin. Otherwise, she won't be able to make it.

[returnable]

14. Ah, the Rudy Strategy Redux

"Clinton’s campaign, meanwhile, downplayed its own efforts in the states, though she did air television ads in both Washington and Nebraska."

Claim you didn't really compete in a state when you actually did just to downplay the results. So far, not a winning strategy. But who knows, maybe it will pay off in Ohio. But as we saw with Rudy, it gets harder and harder to spin losses as they keep piling up.

If Obama can win in Maine today, we know what the story will be for this news cycle.

For someone who lacks "experience," he has played this game perfectly.