I heard on the radio, Obama is only up 908 pledged delegates over Hillary's 877

[bigtree]

CNN projection here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1746


If that's accurate, that's not a huge gain. Next week, in the 'Potomac primaries', there are 175 delegates at stake.

I remember the Obama camp saying they'd be good if they pulled to within 100 points of Clinton after Super Tuesday. I think that's about where Clinton should be after the Potomac primaries, between 50 to 100 delegates down from Obama.

After that, come the races in Texas (228 delegates), Ohio (161), Rhode Island (32), and Vermont (23), with a few small delegate count states holding contests in-between.

With Clinton favored to win in Texas and Ohio, we could be almost even again by Pennsylvania (188 delegates. Closed primary) on 4/22.

[MadBadger]

1. The Conventional Wisdom about TX and OH goes out the window if Obama cleans up in February.

[bigtree]

3. As I pointed out, there really aren't enough delegates to give him some huge lead

at least he won't get any more of a lead than he expected Clinton to have after Super Tuesday, and he still though of himself as competitive under that scenario.

And, as I pointed out, there are plenty of opportunities ahead for Clinton to pull even. The isn't so much of a momentum, as there are states where he has organizational advantages over the Clinton camp. Also, there are the states where the huge numbers of blacks voting gives Obama the edge, But, there's really no way to judge whether that momentum you expect will come about, until Ohio and Texas vote. Obama has trailed Clinton, 2-1 in the Latino vote, so, I expect Texas will still be more than competitive for Clinton. Also, in Ohio:

Ohio polling from RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
Columbus Dispatch 01/23 - 01/31 2156 LV 42 19 Clinton +23.0
Quinnipiac 11/26 - 12/03 436 RV 45 19 Clinton +26.0
Quinnipiac 11/06 - 11/11 450 RV 42 17 Clinton +25.0
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 357 RV 47 19 Clinton +28.0
Strategic Vision (R) 09/14 - 09/16 600 LV 43 23 Clinton +20.0
Quinnipiac 08/28 - 09/03 528 RV 44 15 Clinton +29.0
Quinnipiac 07/30 - 08/06 366 RV 41 16 Clinton +25.0
Quinnipiac 07/03 - 07/09 531 LV 35 17 Clinton +18.0
Quinnipiac 06/18 - 06/25 370 RV 40 12 Clinton +28.0
Quinnipiac 05/08 - 05/13 353 RV 38 19 Clinton +19.0
Quinnipiac 04/17 - 04/24 409 RV 37 14 Clinton +23.0
Quinnipiac 03/13 - 03/19 431 RV 32 22 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 02/25 - 03/04 503 RV 32 19 Clinton +13.0
Univ. of Akron 01/21 - 02/21 Adults 42 16 Clinton +26.0
Quinnipiac 01/23 - 01/28 496 RV 38 13 Clinton +25.0

[MadBadger]

6. But Momentum is also key as well. He would have enormous momentum going in if he cleans up in Feb.

[bigtree]

11. I've seen regional and demographic successes for both candidates, so far

a bit of momentum for Obama, but that didn't seem to do a thing in California. Texas should be equally resistant to some sway in attitude from what the eastern states decide. Ohio, as well. Look at the hurdle for Obama in the polls in the post below . . .

[fuzzy otter pop]

2. her "favorite" status

is dependent on media and money

and so

it is over for her

very soon

[bigtree]

7. wishful thinking

not a very smart strategy to be so overconfident. luckily the Obama campaign hasn't adopted the same arrogant attitude, yet. They agreed to debates in Texas and Ohio, obviously anticipating Clinton's potential to clean up there.

[mmonk]

4. I have no idea how things will go but I know I'm already tired

of it all.

[bigtree]

8. I can only sympathize, mmonk

I have a voracious appetite for it ALL. Sick.

[scheming daemons]

5. The February sweep by Obama will flip dozens of Hillary superdelegates....

.....just watch

[bigtree]

9. Is that the new Obama mantra? I didn't get that communique

[mmonk]

10. I wouldn't bank on it.

You don't know what's in their calculus including promises or "debts owed".

[cali]

12. He'll win big the rest of the month and you'll start seeing more

SDs getting on board. And their are 3 weeks until March 4. He'll win VT by 25 pts. She has no support here. She's raised $47,000 dollars in VT. He's raised over $400,000. I think odds are very good that he takes RI as well. And he's only 10 pts back in TX. He'll come close there and possibly even win. And he won't lose Ohio by more than 10. Then he has 7 weeks to focus on PA. It'll be close. He's in a very good position.

[mmonk]

13. If he starts getting more, it will be from currently unpledged SD's

in my estimation.

[bigtree]

14. That's awfully optimistic

there are two debates scheduled for Texas and Ohio, I believe I heard. And I don't think there's all that much to crow about in Texas from what the states out east decide. California had its own dynamic, with Latinos and women pulling Clinton into the lead, and I expect Texas and Ohio to have their own internal dynamics with Latinos in Texas and economic concerns in Ohio.

I think the momentum will wane by the time we get to those contests. And all of these later states will simply divide the delegates between them both. It will be hard for any SD to tell which way the wind will blow until after those big states have voted, anyway, so I don't expect some big SD shift from the almost 100 SD lead Clinton enjoys now.

[earthlover]

15. The way I see it, it couldn't be closer....every delegate won in primaries counts!

[bigtree]

16. that's the attitude!

for both candidates.

[Honeycombe8]

17. That's amazing. Two months ago, Clinton was considered by most of America to be the nominee. nt

[Thrill]

18. Don't underestimate Obama in TX

There are some big pockets of that state like the Houston area where he could win really big. And the Hispanics in TX are much different from the Hispanics in California