Where The Hillary Campaign Is Now

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I saw yesterday coming a mile away...

I expect her to lose every contest this month with the possible exception of today's caucus but I would not be surprised if she lost that...

If she can win OH and TX on 3/4 we have a race again... She should also win PN, KY, WV, and PR but nothing is guaranteeed...

It irks me when some on this board compare her to that clown, Ghouliani... He won one fucking delegate...

If I'm Hillary I literally make Texas and Ohio my last stand (Remember The Alamo-They should have Mark Penn dressed as Davey Crockett-Gawd I Hate That Man- He literally stole Hillary's money...I hate people who are in it for the dough and not for what is right but I digress) and I tell the press that and the good people of those two states that as well... It has three benefits- It's the truth...The MSM will say it anway...And it will make those folks feel important... I spend every penny I have in those two states and every day I have campaigning there...I go to every part of Texas and Ohio... I talk to those left behind...

Let's see what Team Clinton is made of...They came back from the dead in New Hampshire..."Prosperity conceals character.Adversity reveals it."

It's not about how hard you can hit...It's about how hard you get hit and keep coming back:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1tXhJniSEc

[Dogmudgeon]

1. "Prosperity conceals character. Adversity reveals it."

This should be a real concern to Team Obama. He has never been tested in the national arena. And unless the media plan to anoint him outright, he still has to face some severe testing.

His followers here (well, a great many of them) are unable to understand how anything could perturb their candidate, but he's had nothing but smooth sailing. Just as the Rezko affair was coming to light, Snubgate derailed it. His followers aggressively defend him against the smallest of threats.

He has led a charmed life as a national politician. That can, and will, change. At some point, he will have a money-flow problem. Some mistake he made will be excavated. He may respond to some crisis inappropriately. The excesses of his recruitment system could explode in the media. The fad-appeal of his candidacy among the college crowd could wear off as tuition comes due and final exam season hits. There are a hundred genera of problems he could run into. And with each passing day, the chances of trouble increase. None of these need be fatal, but they will sorely test his abilities. That is something he has never been through; we have never seen him with his back against the wall.

And most of all, given his meteoric rise, nobody has any idea of how solid his support is. Intense celebrity is notoriously fickle.

Hillary, on the other hand, has been through it all, and has prevailed. We know that she can take whatever an opponent and the MSM throw at her. She is not invulnerable, but it is difficult to really injure her. After being knocked down, she gets right back up and keeps fighting.

I strongly suspect that starting about three weeks from now, Team Obama is going to hit a "rough patch". Although as a Hillary partisan, I will enjoy a bit of schadenfreude, I will watch Obama's reactions closely. In spite of my support for Hillary, I think Obama will be around for a long time, and I'm sure I will support him more often than not.

So we shall wait and see.

--p!

[HeraldSquare212]

48. I sort of think that applies to Clinton more than Obama.

and that's why she can't put him away.

[Tellurian]

51. She has the determination and focus....

To Obama is alot of work.. To Hillary, it's breathing!

[neutron]

2. Clinton is the Candidate of Issues Obama is the Hype Man

[Thrill]

3. You underestimate Obama in TX

And I expect Edwards to endorse him in OH. So that should change too

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I concede she can lose those states

But if she loses those states it will be because she was run over by the Obama momentum and not this endorsement or that endorsement...

[Tatiana]

10. So many people are underestimating his support in TX.

Houston is not as firmly in Clinton's camp as I thought.

Austin is definitely Clinton country.

But a curious thing is happening in DFW and the panhandle...

I hope he has time to lend some support to Rick Noriega.

[KennedyGuy]

15. another moronic post

[Thrill]

16. More useless input

from you

[KennedyGuy]

17. blah..blah..blah...

[Thrill]

19. Point proven

[KennedyGuy]

21. you just don't know how to quit me..do you?

keeeeeep it coming.

[Thrill]

25. I see how childish you are

You don't have to worry about another comment from me

[KennedyGuy]

28. promises..promises...we should all be so lucky

keep responding..you really amuse me...
you are so intellectually limited..I love the laughs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

You Gentleman Are Ruining My Poor Thread

~

[KennedyGuy]

31. Sorry..I will suspend.

[aquarius dawning]

4. Hillary is the Rocky Balboa of politics. Hit after hit, round after round

she goes the distance and inspires and surprises everyone. God do I love her.

[intaglio]

7. Ummmm in the original film

Rocky lost

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Yeah -But He Lost On His Feet

~

[aquarius dawning]

13. Yeah but in every other film, he stood there and took his lumps and then, in the final round

he beat the shit out of his opponent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Yes

Very inspiring...

I liked all of them but Rocky V...That was depressing... But he ended it on a high note...

[THUNDER HANDS]

18. by Ohio

it's very possible she will have lost 10 contests in a row.


that's some punch.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. But These Losses Are Expected

It's like buying a stock... The losses are already in the price...

She has to win every state she is supposed to win... She has pull an inside straight flush...

[THUNDER HANDS]

26. she has to dominate Ohio and Texas

DOMINATE, in order to slow him down.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. A Win Is A Win

If this plays out as it should in the ten most populous states that weren't his home state he will have won two of them neither of which is likely to go blue in the Fall- GA and NC...


Hey- if she loses OH and TX it's over...

[aquarius dawning]

32. Unless she decides to get on the ballot as a third party candidate

Of course, Obama could play that card too.

[OzarkDem]

40. Don't forget PA

another state with a large number of delegates where she's ahead.

[aquarius dawning]

27. States don't elect nominees, delegates do :) nt

[Armstead]

38. She's more the Appolo Creed

She didn't go into the race as a desheveled underdog. She was the big mean machine who was assumed to be the winner, who gets put up against a "sure loser" who surprised Creed with his punch.

As an Obama supporter I hope he emulates Rocky's winning in the movies.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. If Obama Was A Fighter He Would Be Floyd Patterson With His Peekaboo Style

Hillary would be Rocky Marcianoor Joe Frazier; a great pressure fighters...

[Armstead]

47. It'll probably boil down to which one is Mohammad Ali

[aquarius dawning]

46. To be honest, I think they have both been underdogs for most of their lives.

Hillary has taken more blows from more directions then Obama in this battle though and yet she still fights which makes her the Rocky IMO. I suppose both candidates inspire their faithful for similar reasons though.

[Cameron27]

5. Clinton's campaign knew this was coming,

and I was expecting it too, but it's damned depressing nevertheless. I agree with you, OH and TX would be significant wins for her. I can't stand either Penn or Axelrod, but Axelrod's had the media backing him up, and that's made his strategy wildly successful.

[totodeinhere]

11. She will need more than wins in OH and TX.

Remember that delegates are awarded proportionately. So even if Clinton wins both of those primaries she will only pick up a net gain of a few delegates. After this Tuesday's Potomac primaries Clinton will probably be behind in delegates even if you count the super delegates. So she might need more than narrow wins in TX and OH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. If She Wins TX And OH Then PN, WV, KY, And PR Will Surely Follow

I don't know how the exact delegate picture would look after that but if both of them weren't on the ticket it would rip the party apart and give the general election to McCain...

[dwelleronthreshold]

9. Good points, all of it. I really hope Clinton starts winning some primaries, and soon.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Ohio And Texas Are Her Alamo

Let's hope she does better tham the original defenders but they made a Hell of a stand...

[Little Star]

22. I loath caucuses. Wish all were primaries. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Caucuses Suck

I was going to say something in the original post but I didn't want to come off as whining...

The secret ballot is what separates a free society from a fascist one...

[THUNDER HANDS]

23. she'll have to have gotten up 10 times by then

10 contests between Super Tuesday and Ohio. The possibility of 10 straight losses.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. How Many Times Did Rocky Get Up?

~

[THUNDER HANDS]

34. um...2?

if he got knocked down 3 times he would have been disqualified, I think.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. The Three Knockdown Rule Is For One Round

If you're asking me would I rather have Obama's "hand" at this moment or Clinton's "hand" I would say Obama's hand but the whole Rocky story is about beating the guy with the better "habd"

[aquarius dawning]

35. Not ten straight losses, a few poorly fought rounds with the big ones yet to come.

And then there's still the super delegate issue and the Florida/Michigan issue.
edit: poorly fought rounds that came as no surprise to anybody considering the Demographics.

[stahbrett]

37. One problem for her - OH and TX are not winner-take-all, so...

If she does win both OH and TX, will the difference in delegates won be substantial?

[aquarius dawning]

41. We have all know for a while that this election is going to be too close for anyone's comfort

nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

43. She doesn't need a huge delegate sweep

The pledged delegate totals will be close if Hillary wins Ohio and Texas. Unless Obama pretty much runs the board from here on out INCLUDING all the large population primary states, no candidate is going to run away with this contest and seal the deal with pledged candidates only.

The two main reason why the contests before Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are important are 1) they may help determine which candidate ends up being able to brag that they won the most pledged delegates if that ends up being close and 2) they have a real role in molding perceptions of which candidate is a real winner and which is a real loser heading into the final big contests - "momentum" in other words.

But given all that, if Hillary Clinton comes back and wins Ohio and Texas and Pennsylvania in high profile large fully contested primary states, Obama will end the primary season with negative momentum and Hillary will have come back from behind in convincing fashion in states that all Democrats understand are big and important.

[bornskeptic]

42. Why are you writing off Wisconsin?

I think Wisconsin could be the key to determining who is going to wind up with the most delegates. While it is a neighboring state to Illinois, the demographics look good for Clinton. If she can win there, it would set her up well for March 5 and beyond, where she looks on paper to have an advantage. If she loses there, it could be almost impossible to stop Obama's momentum.

edited for punctuation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Mo Udall Was Supposed To Win WI In 76 But Carter Shocked Him

That was a long time ago...

Hill does best where there are a lot of Latinos, working class people, and older folks...

[bornskeptic]

49. Obama has won only one primary in a state

with an African-American population of less than 10%-Utah. In CT and MO, where the AA population is given by the 2000 census as 10.2% and 11.5% respectively, he had narrow wins. Outside of his home state of IL, every other state in which he won a primary has an African-American population over 20%-SC, AL, DE, GA, AND LA. Wisconsin is 6% African-American. While it has few Latinos, there is a large working class population, especially in the Milwaukee area, and a slightly higher number of seniors than the national average. I expect it to be close, but if either candidate has a big win there, I think it would tell a lot about what to expect the rest of the way.

[AX10]

52. It would be nice if she takes Wisconsin.

[BeyondGeography]

45. She is Joe Frazier to Obama's Ali

and Joe won the first fight.

He also wound up in the hospital, though.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. Mods- Move to Sports Forum.