Mason Dixon VA: Obama 53 Clinton 37.

[Perky]

Poll: Obama, McCain lead in Va.
Both enjoy sizable leads over rivals as primary approaches Tuesday

Sunday, Feb 10, 2008 - 06:00 AM

By JEFF E. SCHAPIRO
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER
Barack Obama and John McCain may be cruising toward blowout wins in Virginia's presidential primary Tuesday.

Among the Democrats, the poll conducted for the Richmond Times-Dispatch and other Virginia newspapers shows Obama leading Hillary Rodham Clinton 53 percent to 37 percent.

Among the Republicans McCain is up 55 percent to 27 percent, over his remaining major rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. With 5 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is a distant third.

McCain has broad appeal within the GOP, even outpolling Huckabee among religious conservatives -- a key voter bloc for Huckabee. McCain leads Huckabee 43 percent to 41 percent among self-described evangelical Christians. The survey shows Obama lifted by massive support among African-Americans. Further, his strength is concentrated in the urban-suburban crescent that spans from outside Washington to Virginia Beach and dominates the state's politics.

The margin of error is 5 percentage points. The survey was conducted Thursday and Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington.

It is based on phone interviews with 800 likely voters -- 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans.

The Virginia contest, along with primaries in neighboring Maryland and Washington, could reshape the close and hard-fought Democratic campaign, while underscoring Arizona senator McCain's status as the presumed Republican nominee.

The Virginia primary also is a test of the pulling power of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a national co-chairman of the Obama campaign. Kaine was the first governor to endorse the Illinois senator outside his home state.

Though Virginia has not supported a Democrat for president since 1964, both parties believe the state could be in play this year because of steady statewide gains by Democrats since 2001.

The Times-Dispatch Poll did not test hypothetical match-ups for the fall election.

Clinton, a senator from New York, is leading among white voters. She is the preference of voters who favor experience and are concerned about the economy and health care, while Obama is viewed by most as a symbol of change.

McCain, who was a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War, also is strong among military voters, supported by six in 10.

A presumed Virginia win for McCain would be a dramatic contrast with 2000, when his previous bid for president was stopped here by George W. Bush.

Heading into Virginia that year, McCain had attacked Pat Robertson and the Rev. Jerry Falwell, the state's nationally prominent conservative religious leaders, as agents of intolerance.

In the poll, Huckabee is the pick of the most conservative voters. Forty-one percent are siding with him. Many of these voters are concentrated in the rural south and west -- regions where the former Arkansas governor is only even with McCain.

A closer look at the poll shows:

Men prefer Obama to Clinton, 59 percent to 32 percent. He also leads with women, 49 percent to 41 percent.
On the Republican side, McCain is pulling 58 percent of male voters and 52 percent of female voters.

Blacks support Obama over Clinton, 82 percent to 9 percent.
Obama leads in all regions of the state, except the rural south and west, where Clinton has a negligible advantage. His strongest region, at 62 percent, is Hampton Roads, which has a sizable African-American population.
McCain is ahead in all areas, with a high of 69 percent in Northern Virginia, except for the south and west, where he and Huckabee are tied at 42 percent each.

The top issues, in order, for Democrats are the economy and jobs, health care, Iraq, national security and terrorism, the environment and energy, and racial progress.

[Arkana]

1. Polls suck and they rarely, if ever, get anything right.

That's encouraging, yes--but it's unlikely to turn out that way.

[Perky]

2. This is the fifth Poll I have seen in the last few days with the same result for VA.

SuSA Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and I think ARG all had Obama over 50 and Clinton under 40.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. leading men AND women?

wow.

[Perky]

7. I hate the mets even more now.

LOL.. well at least the Yankees did not get him

[ccpup]

4. you may want to double-check how much of an article

you're supposed to include. I think the limit is four paragraphs and then a link. But you might want to check for yourself per the DU Rules.

[MadBadger]

9. Pulling DU rules on the OP? Soounds like somebody doesnt like what the article says

Why dont you cry about it some more?

[my3boyz]

5. I think Tim Kaine showed a lot of courage by endorsing

Obama so early. He did not know that Obama was going to run this strong against Hillary. Many are so scared to cross the Clintons and to have the person lose against them. However, he kept supporting Obama. I'm proud to have him as my governor.........

[Eurobabe]

6. Someone mentioned Tim Kaine as VP for Obama

after listening to the JJ dinner, that speculation might be correct. I met Tim Kaine when he was campaigning for Gov of VA in 2003, super nice guy. He might be on the short list.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I don't trust Mason Dixon. With that said, this seems to link up with other polls.

[TexasObserver]

10. Obama up 50 something to 30 something has been consistent

for polls coming out of Virginia

[Debi]

11. Wasnt' it O55 C37 earlier this week?

She's gaining on him and VA is a primary.

I bet Clinton can move in and move up.

[MadBadger]

13. Different polls have different results. I dont really trust Mason Dixon.

They had Obama winning GA by 6. He won by 30. I think they may have had HIllary winning Alabama.

[LittleBlue]

12. Sweet. Gobama

Thanks!