ChairmanAgnostic
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Sun Feb-10-08 10:40 AM
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Barack probably wins 110 delagates yesterday. |
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doubling Hillary's total.
Considering the incredible scope of defeat for HIllary, one wonders how (if) she can turn it around. When you look more deeply into the demographics of the three states he won, it is clear that, except for older white women, Barack has a lock on most groups across the nation, and most importantly for November, he beats her hands down among moderates and indie voters. Most importantly, Hillary's negatives have not moved down for 6 months. That means that 42% of America that can't stand her, won't ever vote for her, or simply does not like her, will stay that way forever. Barack's negatives are under 30, and McCain's are around 30-31. Interestingly, they both have negatives from pretty much the same groups - the ultra-conservative religious.
It is not over, not by any means. Barack could easily make some really stupid mistake. He could be set up by swiftboaters, and not respond appropriately. Hillary could turn water into wine. Some outside event could have massive impact on both parties' races. Hell, Bush could declare martial law, as his FBI has been training for recently. But trends are extremely informative, and Hillary's trends are very poor indeed.
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bigtree
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Sun Feb-10-08 10:42 AM
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1. they are now about 31 delegates apart in pledged delegates from the contests so far |
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Edited on Sun Feb-10-08 10:43 AM by bigtree
about 100 apart when factoring in SuperDelegates, with Hillary leading, in that case. CNN projection here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#1746
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whistle
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Sun Feb-10-08 10:45 AM
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2. Here is a summary of counts from the CNN website |
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Edited on Sun Feb-10-08 10:46 AM by whistle
Hillary Clinton Pledged: 877 Super delegates: 223 Total: 1,100 Barack Obama Pledged: 908 Super delegates: 131 Total: 1,039 John Edwards Pledged: 26 Super delegates: 0 Total: 26 <Edit in link> http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=
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Sat May 11th 2024, 03:00 AM
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