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Everything indicates that Obama will win Maine by 20-30%, I'm telling you guys

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marcellobarrios Donating Member (124 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:24 AM
Original message
Everything indicates that Obama will win Maine by 20-30%, I'm telling you guys
Where to start:

Maine is a caucus. Obama does well in caucuses, many times wildly exceeding expectations shown in polls

-There is no evidence Clinton is leading in Maine

-Obama's wins yesterday make him even stronger in Maine today than he was last week.

with all this said, I find it very likely that Obama will win Maine by a very large margin.
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AGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. caucus is undemocratic.
that's all.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. She'll win over there, so relax.
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AGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. well the only upside is it's sunday. I don't really care if she wins.
It would be nice, but whatever.
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bilgewaterbill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. Ooops!
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. AGirl is scared.
That is all.
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AGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. i am scared. Why wouldn't I be?
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
2. Your expectations game is pathetic.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
23. you sure blew it on your prediction, Katzenjammer
Edited on Sun Feb-10-08 05:34 PM by TexasObserver
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
3. You posted this already. Stop spamming your ridiculous expectation-lowering.
Hell, he should win every single vote. A vote for clinton is a win for her, IMO.
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marcellobarrios Donating Member (124 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #3
21. Hello, slick
Nice meeting you again.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
5. I think Mercer takes this one.
The Mercer ground operation in Augusta is to die for.
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #5
17. LOL! That's a possibility.
These are fiercely independent Yankees after all.

I bet Maine is close and a delegate split. If the margins are close enough, it doens't matter who "wins" the state, just that the delegates are a wash, so to speak.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Hi, Tay. Good to see ya.
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NoPasaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #5
25. I swear if the superdelegates steal this from Mercer I'm voting Whig
(all three)
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. UP in the house with Lee Mercer! God Bless America!
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary will win Maine
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
10. Caucuses Should SO Be Done Away With. The Process Is Really Really Stupid And Unfair.
And I say that under the pretense that I still think Hillary might win Maine.
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:54 AM
Response to Original message
11. Obama wins when when there isn't a real election.
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The Ghost Donating Member (557 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Like Louisiana? South Carolina? Connecticut? Missouri?
*SIGH*
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chascarrillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. I didn't participate in a real election? How dare you.
Shame.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. may I say what a crock of shit that is? Yes I may.
Georgia
Louisiana
Connecticut
Illinois
Delaware
South Carolina

All primary states. And those are only the ones that come to mind. Oh, and on Tuesday, he'll have three more primary states under his belt.

Pathetic.
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mainer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. I'm just an average Democrat. And I caucused today.
I've never done it before, and neither had the vast majority of people I saw crowding into our local opera house. The people who showed up today are those who are passionate and inspired about their candidates. And they voted. That's certainly an election.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. Snow Squalls, Strong Gusts Expected as Dems Gather in Maine for Causes
Snow squalls, strong gusts expected as Democrats gather in Maine
Sunday, February 10, 2008 - Bangor Daily News

PORTLAND, Maine - An overnight snowstorm proved to be only a nuisance, but there’s still a possibility of snow squalls as Democrats gather for caucuses across Maine.

Meteorologist Art Lester from the National Weather Service says the storm that began Saturday evening left 2 to 5 inches of snow across Maine. The biggest snow tally was 5.4 inches in Hiram; Portland got 2.1 inches before the snow turned to rain.

Lester says snow squalls are expected Sunday afternoon with the possibility of another 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation. He says there will also be strong wind gusts topping out at up to 50 mph, raising the possibility of scattered power outages.

Democrats from 420 towns and cities are holding caucuses to determine to how Maine’s delegates will be allotted at the party’s national convention in August.

http://bangornews.com/news/t/news.aspx?articleid=160016&zoneid=164

(Caucuses are scheduled for afternoon, early evening.)
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. 1 to 3 inches is nothing
In Maine we have been dealing with that sort of weather almost constantly since early December. The sun is out right now in the Portland area and even the secondary roads are clear of the snow from last night.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Snow not expected until this afternoon, along with 50mph wind gusts.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
14. Does Obama have a strong organization in Maine?
Obama has been winning caucuses mainly because of strong organizations on the ground (although I also think there's an enthusiasm gap between his supporters and hers that's helping him in caucus states, plus the demographic factor). Does he have a good ground game there?


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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
24. OMFG HE DIDN'T DO IT. MY LIFE IS WORTHLESS
:cry:

;-)
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. MASS SUICIDE!!!!!1111ONE
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. DROP THAT KOOLAIDE 59% TO 41%. IT MIGHT HAPPEN. HE COULD WIN BY 20%
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jab105 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. If he only wins by 18% - does that mean that he loses...
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-10-08 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. yes. All America will mourn
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