Obama Could Win 35 Out Of 53 Contested Races...and Still Lose

[THUNDER HANDS]

Obama has won 19 contests for far, Clinton has won 11 (13 if you count Florida and Michigan).

If Obama wins today in Maine, and does what he's expected to do in taking D.C., Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Winsonsin he will have 25 wins to her 11.

In March there are six states - Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming and Mississippi. If you give Clinton Ohio and Texas - she'll have won 13 contests to his 29.

In April there is Pennsylvania, let's give Clinton a win there. 29-14.

In May there is Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. I think Clinton could take maybe West Virginia or Oregon, since they're both primaries. So that would make it 33-16.

In June we finish up with Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico. Clinton could win Puerto Rico, which has 55 delegates and will be important. Overall, that would make the contests 35-18 in favor of Obama.


That's 35 out of 53, or two-thirds of all the races, yet Obama could still lose the overall delegate total.

To give you an idea of what that would be like in a general election, say Obama was the Democrat and Clinton the Republican - Obama would have 246 Electoral Votes, based on the states he won. Clinton would have 248.

That's a 2 electoral vote difference.

Without counting Florida and Michigan.

If those two states were to split, Obama takes Michigan and Clinton takes Florida, then Clnton would win the overall total 275 to 263.

[Unsane]

1. FWIW Obama will beat Clinton in OR

I wouldn't give her that one.

[XemaSab]

9. I made the same point below in more words

:P

[Fresh_Start]

2. primary system really sucks

should be synchronized one day ballot vote
maximize the voter participation
straight popular vote - superdelegates vote as their fellow Americans

[blogslut]

3. Hillary ain't gettin Texas

I'll eat a cow patty if that happens.

[okasha]

8. Will you have ketchup or Worcestershire with that entree, sir?

n/t

[XemaSab]

10. And will it be a big soupy patty or a dried crusty one?

:shrug:

[blogslut]

11. Dried and crusty

Just like jerky!

[blogslut]

12. No sauce

I'll take it straight. :hi:

[bowens43]

4. Lets not forget that the deligates are awarded proportionally.

The number of states 'won' isn't relevant. Hillary 'won' nevada but Obama got more delegates.

[Yossariant]

5. For those of you confused enough to think that CA = DE, this would be a big deal.

:rofl:

[THUNDER HANDS]

6. they have the same number of senators

just sayin'.....

[XemaSab]

7. You're missing the fact that delegates are split proportionally

If there was a contest where neither of them won a delegate, it would be a shocker.

That being said, I think Obama's going to take Oregon. He got Idaho handily (by 62%!!!1!!) and he got Washington. He also got about half of the "Jefferson" counties in California, excluding Del Norte (with its prison), Modoc (where 1,000 democrats split 45-40 for Clinton), Lassen (with another prison), and Shasta and Tehama (where Edwards still won double digits).