February 9 article: Blue-collar Maine looks good for Hillary ... link

[Alhena]

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/02/09/hillary-may-have-the-edge-in-maine.aspx

Hillary May Have the Edge in Maine

A lot of us in the press, including me, have looked at Maine on the primary calendar, noticed it was a caucus state, and basically put it in the Obama column as a result.

Now it's true that caucus states tend to reward the extensive organization that Obama excels at. On the other hand, there are a lot of white working-class people in Maine--and, judging from the results of New Hampshire and Massachusetts (look at "high school graduates" and voters making under $50,000), Obama seems to have problems with the New England version of this demographic. (Even in Connecticut, which Obama won, Hillary killed him among "high school graduates"--55-41--though he returned the favor among college graduates.) Whether or not Barry Bonds's diagnosis of the situtation is apt, I can't say. But what's clear is that the terrain isn't super-favorable for him tomorrow.

. . .

Update: Yeah, Maine looks pretty good for Hillary. In the 2004 general election, about 60 percent of Maine voters made less than $50,000 per year. By comparison, only about one-third of New Hampshire voters made less than $50,000. In both cases, Bush won 44 percent of that group, so we're looking at a lot more (almost twice the proportion of) working class Dems in Maine...

--Noam Scheiber

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Except it was just called for Obama.

Once again, the pollsters and pundits were wrong.

[Alhena]

3. But if you look at the Maine demographics in the article ...

it's clear that Maine is much less affluent and more blue collar than New Hampshire, which Hillary won. So I think Obama's success there is significant, although it would be more significant if it were a primary instead of a caucus.

[joshcryer]

5. She'll get half the delegates.

What is it Obama supporters were saying all day on Feb 5th?

[Torgo Johnson]

6. Obama 15 delegates Clinton 9 delegates

From http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#ME

How is that even close to half the delegates?

[cooolandrew]

2. If Obama is for raising minimum wages by inflation yearly how is he not blue collar.

[Connie_Corleone]

4. Conventional wisdom thrown right out the window...again.

Go Obama!!