Wisconsin very well may be Clinton's firewall.

[Drunken Irishman]

It's her last chance to thwart Obama's momentum heading into the Ohio and Texas primaries. If she can't do it there, it could be very difficult for her to win either Ohio and Texas.

If Obama wins Virginia, Maryland and DC tomorrow, then carries Hawaii and Wisconsin, that will be a total of 9 primaries/caucuses in a row he's won since Super Tuesday. I'm not sure, even with all the advantages she has with Ohio and Texas, it will be enough to overcome what Obama will have built in the entire month of February. And that's key, because if Obama sweeps all of February, that is going to be the dominant news story throughout the rest of the month heading into March. Now is it possible for Clinton to overcome this? Sure it is, IF she wins in Wisconsin. But a loss there may cripple her campaign to the point where she won't be able to win either Ohio or Texas.

Not to pour it on, but this is how I see it. I think ultimately Clinton's firewall will become Wisconsin and if she can't win there, it's very likely she is done. If she does manage a win in Wisconsin, which is still entirely possible, things will get back on track and make this a race again, where you've got to think she has an edge heading into Ohio and Texas. But right now, that's looking more and more less likely to happen.

[AX10]

1. Any polls for Wisconsin?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The last one I saw was last week, it had Clinton up 9.

But a lot can change in a week.

[tandem5]

14. where? all I see are old ones from december. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I can't remember where.

Someone posted it on DU, but I think it was one of those lesser known polling companies.

[tandem5]

18. I found it...

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/wisconsin.html

[Drunken Irishman]

20. That's right. I remember thinking "It's ARG and I don't trust ARG!"

:)

[jefferson_dem]

21. The notorious ARG!

By default: add at least five point to Barack's tally, deduct at least five from Hillary's.

[jgraz]

2. Good luck -- it's made of cheese

[my3boyz]

3. Tweety said this was pro-Clinton area because of blue collar dems.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. The demographics definitely favor her.

But they also did in Maine, as well, and I think Maine is more evidence of a massive shift toward Obama.

[Little Star]

15. Was Maine a caucus? Is WI a caucus or primary?

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Maine was a caucus, WI is a primary.

[TexasObserver]

4. Be looking for a story from Camp Clinton claiming Obama wants to outlaw cheese.

[jgraz]

9. Naw, they're just gonna point out that he's a Bears fan

That'll do it for sure.

[XemaSab]

11. Did you know that a lot of African Americans are intolerant?

Of LACTOSE? :shrug:

:P

[hogwyld]

6. I agree that Hillary will pull out all the stops to win WI

This state will have to be her do or die statement just to slow down the Obama train.

[sandnsea]

7. Ohio is going to be a blood bath

I would say all hands on deck to Ohio. That's the state both of them really need to win. The easiest way to do it is with their connections to people like Chatwal and their connection to global outsourcers.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I think for Clinton, it'll come down to Wisconsin.

And if the Clinton campaign is smart, they'll put everything they have in Wisconsin. Because if they lose there, it's going to look really bad and that type of press could very well sink her in Ohio -- which is a lot like Wisconsin.

[Hardrada]

12. I keep reading Clinton's farewell instead of Clinton's firewall!

For some reason.

[XemaSab]

13. The fact that we're talking about firewalls...

It's my understanding that firewalls just give people more time to escape from the burning building...

[earthlover]

22. Hmmm....wasn't NEW HAMPSHIRE going to be hillary's FIREWALL? WHAT HAPPENED?!

[cali]

19. May it crumble into pieces. n/t

[Occam Bandage]

23. How many firewalls is one candidate allowed to declare per campaign?

[thevoiceofreason]

25. I propose a 3 firewall limit per campaign season

[TexasObserver]

27. well, you know, Jesse Jackson broke through some firewalls

[BringBigDogBack]

24. She has no advantage in Texas...

I don't know why everyone keeps saying that.

Obama will take TX. Book it.

[TexasObserver]

26. I think you're right, but there sure are a lot of people who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express

who want to give a contrary expert opinion

[Drunken Irishman]

28. I didn't think so at first, but I feel good about Obama's chances there.

The last poll I saw had him down only 10 there and that was last month, before everything swung his way.

[Eric J in MN]

29. Obama won MN by a big margin, and WI has a lot in common with MN.

So we'll see.

[DiamondJay]

30. she can pull it off

especially cuz shes got a new camp. manager. also, Wisconsin is the archetypical middle-american state. I believe this state may have the most trouble being ready for Obama.

[Tropics_Dude83]

31. Of note Jessie Jackson's mo was stopped dead cold in WI in 1988

Jessie Jackson was on a roll until a narrow loss in Colorado was followed by a sound defeat in Wisconsin in 1988.

And no I support Obama and don't think he is Jessie Jackson. I'm not Bill. I just wonder if WI is ready for an African American candidate.