Susan Estrich: Democrats worried Obama has a Bradley Effect, voters may have lied in exit polls

[Herman Munster]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,330248,00.html

When people called me in a panic about the exits showing California too close to call, showing Obama with leads in primary states that Hillary was supposed to win, I took a deep breath and suggested they do the same.

I had a two word answer for all the folks who said it was over, that Hillary was dead, that all the money and momentum for Obama meant he would walk on water come the time for the polls to close.

Two words - New Hampshire. And New Hampshire it was.

It’s not that Obama didn’t do well, of course he did. He did very well.

But, California turned out to be as clear-cut a victory for Hillary as most people thought it would be two weeks earlier. The Latino and women's vote stayed with Hillary.

New York was a romp. New Jersey was easy. Even Massachusetts — the most liberal state in the nation, where Obama won the endorsements of both Senators, Kennedy and Kerry, not to mention the newly elected African American Governor, Deval Patrick, even Massachusetts was Clinton country.

What is going on?

If you paid attention to the gushers in the press and punditry in the days leading up to Super Tuesday, Hillary was on her way to the morgue, murdered by her crazy husband’s loose talk, abandoned by young voters and women and anti-war Democrats, and anyone else they could think of.

Not so.

Partly, it’s a measure of Hillary’s strength. But it’s also a sign of Obama’s weakness which, it seems, we who chatter for a living have been reluctant to speak about, lest we be tarred with having raised the “race card.”

But, the fact is that there is a long pattern of what we in California call the “Bradley problem” in polling, after the former Los Angeles mayor who was elected governor in every poll, including the exits, except that he lost at the ballot box. Did I mention that he was African-American?

That was, according to the pollsters, the problem: about 10 percent of the electorate claimed that they were going to vote for him, and in many cases even told pollsters that they did, but they lied.

Shocking. Racism in America. Who’d a thunk it?

[MadBadger]

1. This just sounds like an analyst who knows jack shit.

[trumad]

4. This sounds like a DUer who doesn't know Susan.

[zonkers]

8. Thanks for reminding me to tivo the Tales of the Crypt marathon coming up.

[Blarch]

20. My god what a terrible picture.

[Yael]

24. She works for Fox News

Nuff said.

[FrenchieCat]

2. I' am so tired of this goddam shit! I do not believe that Americans

are as evil as our fucked up politicians and their pundits.

Politics of fear and hate is all that I see in this supposed to be Democratic party.

[griffi94]

5. well

i hate to be the one to point it out...but racism does in fact exist....let's wait and see how many southern states obama can carry in the ge

[FrenchieCat]

10. Especially on DU........

I think that as folks get to know Obama, he is being judged on the content of his character and the policies that he proposes....but some here are just too racist to believe that this could actually happen. That's what is so sad.

[billbuckhead]

16. I'm not worried about southern states, it's mid atlantic states and California I'm worried about

Southern states are gone for decades to come but Obama will put mid atlantic states and even California into play.

[msmcghee]

17. I'm not sure the Bradley effect is necessarily racism.

I think a non-racist who wanted to vote for HRC (for non-racist reasons - like thinks she's got more relevant experience) could well be reluctant to admit it to others. Especially true if Obama supporters are calling any anti-Obama thinking - an example of playing the race card.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

11. You just lived through two Bush terms and you say that?

[TwilightGardener]

3. What I don't get is, what is the motivation to lie on an anonymous poll?

I wouldn't feel bad at all saying "Clinton" if I wanted her over Obama--it wouldn't even occur to me. But I do worry about it, and it's sad that Hillary stands to benefit from racism, same as it's sad that Obama stands to benefit from sexism.

[DJ13]

6. Estrich is a Fox faux Democrat

They dont use strong representatives of the Party on that channel.

I thought everyone knew that?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. and the early voters (absentee ballots)

Obama was gaining ground rapidly in the days before the CA election but couldn't quite grasp it. I think there was also a problem with 100,000 ballots not counted. given another week I think he would have taken CA!

[Little Star]

13. And your theory on Massachusetts????

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. Clintons always historically popular in Mass.

she won women's vote, also 'beer drinkers' as opposed to 'wine drinkers' vote. Obama won Boston.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Susan Estrich for FauxNews?! Taylor Marsh is jealous...

n/t

[dsc]

12. The problem in New Hampshire

wasn't that people over estimated the voters for Obama but underestimated those for Clinton. I don't know about the other places but New Hampshire wasn't a Bradley effect.

[malletgirl02]

15. Yes you'r right

The problem with New Hampshire was inaccurate polling.

[CreekDog]

14. So he wins the exit polls by bigger margins than the real polls

but he can win nevertheless? okayyyyy.

both candidates are going to have their struggles to overcome bigotry --we know that already.

as for Susan Estrich, I'm sure she learned a lot from managing Dukakis' 88 campaign.

[ProSense]

18. Ah,

ludicrous

[Sir Jeffrey]

19. Polling models are based on estimated turnout figures...

and identification factors (like party id, race, gender, etc.). The models have been screwy for much of this cycle because Dem turnout is up significantly. California was way off because of early voting. I doubt any significant number of Democratic primary voters would lie about supporting Obama.

She is actually claiming that it is proper to analogize our primary voters to 10 percent of the electorate in a general election without any evidence. How does Susan Estrich get any face time on TV? At what point was her brain removed?

Edited to answer my own question: her brain was removed during the Dukakis campaign. Ah yes, I remember watching that train wreck as a young lad.

[zalinda]

21. It's more of a question of appearances

It is VERY politically incorrect to not vote for a black guy who is running, unless he is someone like Allen Keyes. So when asked, people will say they voted for the black guy, because they feel pressured to do so. After all, look how suppressed black people have been in this country, it is about time for a black President.

The plain truth is this, it is much easier to say that you are voting for the black guy than for the woman, because it is still okay for women to be "kept barefoot and pregnant". It is not okay to discriminate against a black man. So, you lie and say you voted for him, and you aren't looked at with disgust.

It's the same phenomenon why people are asked if they exercise or eat right or what they find attractive in a potential mate. Just about everyone lies about these things. When was the last time you heard at a party, of he's so funny, that's so sexy? And yet, one of the things that are high on the dating lists is sense of humor. Or, there is an overweight woman and one guy will say how disgusting she is and the other man will agree, even though he finds that overweight women are attractive.

Everyone lies, it just what they lie about that may be different. I don't like Obama, and some may say that's because he's black. And, I can say with absolute truth, I don't like him because he speaks like a TV preacher. I don't like him because I can't understand anything he says, none of it makes any sense at all to me. I don't like him because he seems to be arrogant and aloof. Since both dem candidates are basically the same, I tend to go with the one that I dislike the least, and that's Hillary.

zalinda

[southern_dem]

22. Didn't she think having

Michael Dukakis in a tank would be a great idea. Yeah, hard to take her seriously.