Odds on Obama win rise sharply

[FarCenter]

Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89ceea8e-d8d1-11dc-8b22-0000779fd2ac.html

By Edward Luce

Published: February 11 2008 19:08 | Last updated: February 11 2008 19:08

Barack Obama’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination have risen sharply in the last four days, with Intrade on Monday giving him a 70 per cent probability of taking the prize against just 30 per cent for Hillary Clinton.

...

But now both Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Market – the two most closely watched political futures sites – give Mr Obama overwhelming odds of taking the nomination. IEM gives him a 69 per cent chance against just 28 per cent for Mrs Clinton.

Those numbers are likely to rise following what is expected to be a series of convincing victories in the three “Potomac Primaries” on Tuesday in Virginia, Washington DC and Maryland, following his wide-margin wins in four nominating contests over the weekend.

“If there was one piece of information I would look at for an election it would be Intrade rather than the opinion polls,” said Jason Furman, an economist and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

[TexasObserver]

1. going going gone

[Big Blue Marble]

2. Funny, I just checked the Intrade Market.

He is up 5 points in todays trades.

[NJSecularist]

3. Intrades knows as much as you and I.

[sfam]

4. Intrade is the WORST predictor of anything...even worse than Zogby...

Why people still cite this site I'll never know. All it does is take the pulse of the MSM at any minute. That's it. So I guess that's interesting. But Prediction???

[Kittycat]

5. I don't see HRC dropping out.

She'll fight tooth and nail, and tear the party in to shreds for her own personal gain. Rules and Voters be damned.