"She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” (anonymous 'Superdelegate' per NYT)

[truthpusher]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12clinton.html?ei=5065&en=83bd560436fa713f&ex=1203397200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

February 12, 2008

For Clinton, Bid Hinges on Texas and Ohio

By PATRICK HEALY

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

more article at link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12clinton.html?ei=5065&en=83bd560436fa713f&ex=1203397200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Then she's out, because Clinton won't win either comfortably.

She may win both, but it'll be by a slim margin. I know she has a huge lead in Ohio, but I expect that to change rather quickly and it probably already has, since the last poll was done before Obama's surge.

[Obamaniac]

17. Am I the only one who finds Hillary's Texas/Ohio strategy...

...reminisent of The Ghouls "Florida strategy?"

How well did that work out for the Ghoul?

[Drunken Irishman]

20. No you're not.

I've thought about it, too.

[dailykoff]

2. Odd that she's pinning it all on those two particular states.

Ohio delivered W in '04 and Texas elected him governor twice, the first time defeating popular incumbent Ann Richards if I'm not mistaken.

I'm guessing neither election operation is exactly squeaky clean.

[Lerkfish]

4. ohio was fraudelently run in 2004, 2006.

maybe she's counting on that

[dailykoff]

7. Yes, that's exactly what I suspect.

And Texas has got to be as corrupt as hell to elect a stooge like W.

[thevoiceofreason]

15. In 1994, during Bill's first term

100's of good democratic officials were swept fom office in Texas. The pukes rallying cry? "They are in the Clinton party." Texas cannot take any more Clinton administrations.

[Samantha]

23. That's what I have been thinking

There seem to be a number of Republicans saying complimentary things about her. Some people do think she will continue Bush's Iraq policy if elected. I have heard her comments on this subject but the truth of the matter is even if a Dem is elected, we have no assurance either can follow through with their statements. Lyndon Johnson campaigned on ending the war in Vietnam. Three days after taking his elected term, he escalated it.

[Lerkfish]

3. pride goeth before a fall

the "inevitability" and the "electable" memes can really bite you in the butt if they don't pan out.

[Bullet1987]

5. People keep ignoring Wisconsin and I don't know why...she MAY

win there.

[rufus dog]

9. correct

That should be her firewall!

[CoffeeCat]

13. I really don't think that will happen...

There was another article posted on DU that included a quote from Chelsea, who
was campaigning on behalf of her mother in WI.

Chelsea happened to mention that her mother's first stop in WI--would be Saturday.

Saturday? I found that remarkable! She's got Tues, Wed, Thurs, Fri--and she's not
spending any of those days in WI---when their primary is next Tues??? Ohio and TX
aren't for three more weeks.

I found that odd. This is how she ran Nebraska, and we all saw what happened there.

Hillary is making WI appearances, but she does not appear to be organizing a serious
ground game there, or making a serious effort there. Obama leaves the Potomac Primary
Tuesday night--while the voting machines are still hot! He's giving a speech in
Madison that night.

I see her numbers significantly going down, due to this. She can't win WI if she's
not there. And if Obama is there a great deal--without her countering him--it will
be another decisive win for Obama.

[Renew Deal]

19. Actually, she never went to Nebraska

This is how she handled Maryland and Virginia.

[joshcryer]

6. I've been saying it forever, she's done. Stick a fork in her.

[dailykoff]

8. Well, she was done after Iowa too.

Third place finish, and then along came LHS in NH and both she and McCon popped back up. McCain to stay, Hilly to sink again until. . .

[joshcryer]

10. She never had actual momentum.

She's always done worse than the polls, with the exception of Zogby.

[dailykoff]

11. Right, and every "win" has been ugly, fraudulent, or suspicious.

Still, that didn't stop W's hostile takeover. All she needs is the appearance of a comeback -- now matter how miraculous, improbable, or contested -- to legitimate the superdelegate charade she and Bill have been setting up for years.

[frazzled]

12. She can likely win these states ... but winning them "comfortably" may be looking less certain

I'm just beginning to realize that "comfortably" is really the operative term here.

I always thought Clinton would win Ohio and Texas (and probably even Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), but winning a state is no longer the issue now that Obama has won a string of them by large margins. She has to do the 62-35 thing in order to rack up significant delegate leads over him. And to assuage the superdelegates. That is looking somewhat less likely. Beating him by 8 points in these states may not do it (I haven't done the math).

Of course, anything can happen. There may be a backlash or a buyer's remorse about Obama (like the McCain smackdown this weekend--only for real) as the season wears on. It's still a race; it's just looking a lot grimmer for Senator Clinton.

[MindMatter]

14. Her problem is that she's losing important states

by wide margins. Maine was probably the point of no return. Prior to that, there was still a gently racist "South Carolina" argument. But Maine blows that out of the water. And it wasn't even close in Maine.

OK, that's a small state population wise. Well, it is looking like Obama gets those same blowout margins in the three primaries tomorrow.

If Obama gets a 60/40 win in those three and does something similar in WI and Hawaii, I don't see how Clinton even lasts to March 4. Obama is already way ahead in the elected delegates. The only reason this isn't already on the board as a blowout is because the Clinton machine pinned down a big lead in superdelegates early. But most of them are not completely stupid. They see this thing coming apart, and many of them, at least privately, aren't going to hang with her to March 4.

With the Clintons, it is always about their personal ambition. She will not drop out of the race when it is best for the party. She will drop out at the exact instant when she becomes convinced staying in is no longer good for Hillary's opportunities. She is getting very close to this point. If she stays in another month and gets royally trounced, a future Presidential run looks pretty bleak.

Mark my words. Before March 4, she will decide she would rather not take that trouncing.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

16. Maine was a caucus. Not important.

[MindMatter]

18. Are you prepared to dismiss VA and MD so easily?

[Renew Deal]

21. I can't tell if that's a joke or not.

Was Connecticut important?

[quantass]

22. The pressure on Clinton to win.......poor thing.

I am an independent on all this and just enjoying watching this history unfold for your country, but just my 2c, I personally think she will win TX, PA and OH but i dont think it will be by much which might as well be losses for her. I mean, when you look at Obama it appears he is getting stronger daily and to me it feels like Clinton is conceding too easily and relying too heavily on these later states to make up ground...personally, i dont think that is a good strategy because it just gives Obama more time to focus and attack at those elements that Clinton does need to capture those 3.

Wow that Obama is quite the machine!!

[greeneyedstone]

24. A Joint Ticket is our best hope

Im posting here in the hopes of convincing Democrats who have
yet to vote to support Senator Clinton. Not because i'm crazy
about Senator Clinton. I was born in Arkansas and spent a good
chunk of my life there during her husband's Governorship.
Although she did some great things for the state with regards
to education, this isn't about blindly following her. It's
about the best way to get Republicans out of the Oval Office
in November. I truly believe that the only real chance we have
for that lies with a joint ticket. I would support either for
President , but I feel the strongest chance of a joint ticket
lies with Clinton/Obama. If Senator Obama wins the nomination,
then the chances of the two working together become much less
likely, and therein lies the danger of many MOR Democrats
turning to McCain come November. I am reaching out to all with
this message.. A united party is our only hope at putting an
end to the Republicans blood for oil policies. To that end I
call on all who have not voted yet to endorse Senator Clinton,
which is effectively endorsing a Clinton/Obama ticket,
something we all know Senator Clinton would seek
wholeheartedly. Though an Obama/Clinton ticket would be just
as appealing for many voters, the possibility of it occurring
are far less likely. Clinton/Obama .. The best Choice, the
best Chance, at real Change...