GE - If 80% of HC supporters will vote for BO and 50% of BO supporters say they will vote for HC

[jsamuel]

That explains why the GE polls show McCain beating Clinton. Would these Obama supporters seriously choose McCain over Clinton in November or are they just saying that now and in polls?

I read the numbers above somewhere on DU. I don't remember where. I am thinking of it as a hypothetical.

[Cant trust em]

1. I'm for Obama, but I really don't respect staying home

and not voting. You pick between the two candidates that are up there. That being said, if we ever nominated Joe Lieberman I'd really have to do some soul searching to see if I'd pull the lever for him. He'd have to be going up against Adolf Hitler IV for that to happen.

[Hippo_Tron]

17. Joe Lieberman would never get the nomination

To get a nomination you have to appeal to the party's base to a certain extent and Lieberman can't do that.

[Cant trust em]

24. it's just as an example.

that's the only scenario that I could imagine not casting a vote.

[liberalnurse]

2. I have heard from Hillary supporters that they will not vote in the general

election if Obama is the nominee. I'm one of them and will not lift a finger for him.

[AX10]

9. I am one of the few young voters for Hillary

and I can see right through Obama's B.S.
I have always been wiser than those within my age group.

[liberalnurse]

14. I wish that what insight you have

was contagious.O8)

:hi:

:yourock:

[AX10]

16. I wish it was too.

From the time I was 2 years old, my mother told me that I was extremely bright and would never go with the flow. That is true, time and time again. My brother is similar to me in that regard.
No one in my home ever liked people giving them bullshit.

:hi:

[Blue_State_Elitist]

27. Me too.

[angie_love]

29. If "wise" means going with the status quo with the same old politics of the last 16 years

Then yeah i'd say you were "wise" if "wise" meant clueless and more of the same.

[Levgreee]

33. Soooo ironic

[Yael]

3. I don't think she can draw the indies or the youth vote

Not that they will go to McCain, but she doesn't instill the same excitement with them.

[Bicoastal]

4. You're forgetting about Independents.

After the Bush era, the country is full of them. And it seems to me, at this time, in the Independent mind...

Hillary Clinton < John McCain < Barack Obama

Again, not how I would put it. HRC would be right next to Obama, and McCain would be off my computer screen and on the wall somewhere.

[tammywammy]

5. That's what I find to be true from my friends that classify themselves as Independents

They prefer McCain over Clinton and Obama over McCain.

[MadBadger]

6. Do you have a link to back this up?

Not that I dont believe you, but Id just like to study what your looking at.

[jsamuel]

10. I read it somewhere on DU. I am thinking of it as a hypothetical.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Get out of the fish bowl

I saw somewhere that 70% of Democratic Primary voters are enthusiastic about both of our candidates - let alone being willing to vote for either. When it comes down to a long campaign with the Republican Hate machine against either Hillary or Barack, Democrats will unite nicely behind our candidate

[bilgewaterbill]

8. Where did you get those numbers?

[jackson_dem]

11. It's because Obama is "new", like Bush 00' and Kerry 04'

Hillary is as known as an incumbent president would be. Bush and Kerry both suffered 11 point swings from their big leads at this time in 2000 and 2004. If Obama continues the trend he will lose by 7-8 points...

[HughMoran]

12. Pull numbers out of thin air?

:wtf:

[MADem]

13. Here's an analysis that sort of knocks that paradigm for a loop. I don't agree with it, necessarily

but I also think that Obama is being presumptuous to 'count' on Clinton supporters as a bloc. He's going to have to woo them and earn it--he won't be 'entitled' to those votes.

To a certain extent this is expected - both candidates are fundamentally acceptable to the Democratic electorate and so end game stratagems can cause significant shifts. In many elections, a last minute riptide tends to pull people back to the old. But this year, it seems more acute, as Democrats struggle to decide: should they turn the page on the Clintons or miss the Obama express?

That riptide has let Sen. Clinton capture virtually all of the very large states that are essential for Democrats in the Fall: California, Florida*, Michigan*, New York, New Jersey (the exceptions being Illinois and a squeaker in Missouri).

Why has Sen. Obama not been able to win these? Simply put, he has failed to close. He has not been able to overcome questions about risk and, frankly, questions about race.

Risk: In 1992, Bill Clinton navigated the risk issue shrewdly. His line was always "we need to have the courage to change." Sen. Obama needs to figure out how to reassure them that the risk is acceptable.

Race: According to the Super Tuesday exit polls, roughly 20% of Clinton voters admitted that race was either the only factor or one of many important factors in their vote. On Saturday in Louisiana, almost 25% of Clinton voters acknowledged that race was an important factor. That's the number that admitted to those thoughts in a questionnaire. The actual number is likely larger. Almost half the entire Hillary advantage among whites can be explained simply by race. It may have been ugly, but Bill Clinton helped her.

With regards to the racial issue, Sen. Obama needs to heed the lessons learned in the 1982 Tom Bradley campaign for governor of California. Like Sen. Obama, Mayor Bradley was a candidate who "happened to be black." He decided not to address the issue of his race head-on, fearing it would only call attention to it. In the last days of the campaign, his opponent figured out how to inject race into the campaign, and Bradley lost, despite leading in the polls for months. This year, Sen. Obama needs to figure out how to explicitly ventilate that issue, so that voters resolve it to his, and not an opponent's, advantage.

Similarly, he needs to address risk. Sen. Obama needs to convince Democrats that it is okay to "retire" the Clintons, something they are uncomfortable doing. Metaphorically, he must hand the Clintons a "gold watch" and appear sincere in doing so. This is important to Democratic primary voters, most of whom have no interest in "punishing" Senator Clinton or her husband. Finding a way to assure people that a vote for Obama is not a vote against Hillary will, to some degree, determine whether Sen. Obama can "close."

To date, she has been the better closer. And she has at her disposal the ultimate close -- "vote for both of us." If the conflicted voters were convinced that a vote for Sen. Clinton would guarantee a Clinton-Obama ticket, the last minute deciders would clearly break in full force her way.

In the coming weeks, despite a disadvantage in fundraising, Sen. Clinton can win in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Despite all their enthusiasm and fundraising, does the Obama team really think that they will take the nomination away from someone who has won primaries in states commanding over 215 electoral votes, if they have only won primaries in states commanding roughly a third that number? They can't and they almost certainly won't. Sen. Obama must win at least two of the three remaining "big" states. To do that he must figure out how to address the silent issues of risk and race.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080211/cm_rcp/can_obama_close_1

[AX10]

19. Also, consider that Caucus's have very low voter turn-out...

This year, the risk factor is even greater. Because there are very serious problems to be faced, experience will count a great deal. In 1992, it was the economy only, this year it is the economy and foreign/security policy as well.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

15. Not the Democratic ones.

Actually, Clinton does better in that matchup. A recent poll in VA showed that like 85% of Democratic Obama voters would support HRC in the general while only 74% of Clinton supporters said the same about him. When you add the independents in the mix, it changes the whole picture. Unfortunately, a lot of those indies would go for McCain. :puke:

[VolcanoJen]

18. What is that in dog years?

:shrug:

[Alcibiades]

20. Utterly worthless

80% of me calls bullshit.

[Alexander]

21. I'll vote for either one in the GE. The worst thing we can do is stay home.

[NMMNG]

22. "Unity" my ass

It's only unity if everybody supports Obama. Otherwise it's "screw you". Why am I reminded of a certain chimp-like somebody? :shrug:

[Proud2BAmurkin]

26. lol and correct

[BenDavid]

23. In some polls it is obama losing more Democrats to mcCain

then HRC losing dems to McCain.....

[anamandujano]

25. You made it obvious that this was hypothetical and it does make

sense to me.

Obama voters, if asked about Clinton, would not give her the slightest advantage. They have seen her as the enemy from the beginning and they have attacked her at every turn. People rarely get polled but when they do, they speak hoping to influence their issues and their candidate.

I received an exploratory phone call from the W pushers a year or so before than ran him as puppet in chief. I normally say I don't want to participate but they somehow got the question out before I hung up.

In the thick of scary Repukelican Texas (I turned down my DU bumper sticker back then), I said that I would never vote for a Republican (I was civil) because of what they were doing to the president now (Clinton at impeachment time). The person said, "I understand." FWIW

Only recently have Clinton supporters begun getting so disgusted with Obama's tactics and those of his followers, they have started saying they could not vote for him.

I'd guess that as new polls roll out, when and if the general public gets nauseated by his crap, Clinton supporters might start speaking against Obama. Keep in mind he has a lot of temporary Repuke support. That should also be influencing the numbers. In a time when Rush Limburger and Man Coulter say they'll vote against McCain out loud, you know that there's a lot of mischief going on behind the scenes.

[Straight Shooter]

28. When I hear such comments as the IP, it makes me think HRC supporters care most about this country.

We are able to set aside our resentment at the attacks on Ms. Clinton, we're willing to set aside the unshakeable feeling that Obama is an empty fortune cookie, and we will vote for him in the best interest of the country and the world if he is the nominee. But at this point, I've got to tell you, with his Labrador-dog style of eager willingness to do the hokey-pokey with Repubs, I'm really beginning to wonder what kind of appointees for the Supreme Court that Mr. Go-Along-To-Get-Along is going to burden us with.

50% of obama's supporters being unwilling to vote for Ms. Clinton tells me that they're rallying around Obama because it makes them feel good, and they are unable to judge a candidate beyond glittery superficial impressions and what the right wing has hypnotized them into believing about Hillary through ceaseless malicious repetition. If the media were owned by liberals, and if Hillary Clinton had been treated with respect and admiration, there would be no contest at this point. None.

I saw the same damn thing when Reagan ran against Carter, I saw supposedly intelligent people swallowing bullshit by the shovelfuls, and my opinion of Reagan has been vindicated ever since. Not that Obama would be such a vile influence on this country, but I hear the echos of Reagan's "sunny optimism" in Obama's helium-filled rhetoric. "If it feels good, believe it."

[angie_love]

30. I think you need to read the above post by Liberal nurse & AX10 who said they won't vote for Obama

if hes the nominee. So your "HRC supporters cares most about this country" theory is a whole lot of bullshit and is proven right here in this thread by your own fellow hillary supporters. LOL

[Straight Shooter]

31. I think you need to realize that those two don't constitute the remaining percent.

Do you always make such Grand Canyon leaps of logic?

edit for clarity

[angie_love]

32. And why do you assume Obama supporters won't vote for Hillary?

B/c of some random OP that can't link a specific poll proving this true? Just where did he get those 80%/50% numbers anyway? He pulled those numbers from his ass. If you look at the exit polls from Super Tuesday nationally, 63% on each side (Obama and Hillary) said they would support the nominee. I call bullshit on your theory.