Clinton winning western VA 57% to 39%. Obama winning northeast, southeast, and central.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

More proof that Obama cannot win a general election for anyone who isn't in denial.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66104dbf-be73-44e9-ab28-15a3bfd72a8f&q=45558

[MadBadger]

1. Explain why this is proof. Dont just say its proof, explain yourself for once.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

3. Demographic issues.

[MadBadger]

5. EXPAND

[Proud2BAmurkin]

9. Do those regional differences strike you in any way

[rodeodance]

71. With any luck he went away to think about your question.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Do you know the demographics of western Virginia?

It's the far more conservative part of the state. Are you suggesting Hillary doing well in conservative areas proves she's more electable? Because that goes against everything you've been saying lately about Obama taking conservative states.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

14. I'm saying the conservatives Hillary is getting in western VA won't vote for Obama

The liberals he's getting always vote Democratic.

[MagsDem]

17. Stop assuming Obamaniacs understand demos or even politics

in general. It will only frustrate you.

[cali]

81. lol! little hilldroid

The OP is making an argument that Obama can't win the General Election based on his strength in 3/4 of the state of VA, and Obama supporters don't understand demographics or politics.

Too funny. Thanks for the laugh, hillbot.

:rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

20. So you totally just debunked an argument you've been making on this board all week.

Obama's wins in conservative states don't count, you said, Clinton's victories in liberal states, do. But if this is proof she can win, since she's getting conservative votes, then it's just as easy to believe Obama will do well throughout the country, since he's done extremely well in conservative leaning states. You know, like South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Nebraska, LA, Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, Missouri and so on.

Thanks for screwing up your own talking point.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

23. Obama is winning in conservative caucus states no Democrat wins in a general election and

he's losing in states democrats need and states democrats have a chance of picking up. He'll lose PA in a general election too for the same reasons VA is divided.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Georgia, Alabama, Utah, South Carolina and soon to be Virginia were primary states.

But what do you base your statement on? Because you've completely debunked your own argument that winning conservative votes does not mean you're going to win them in the general.

And what makes you think Clinton will carry the liberal vote in Virginia to turn it blue?

Hm, you're digging yourself a bigger hole, my friend.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

35. "and southern states with large black populations"

[Drunken Irishman]

44. You lose.

Sorry, but your argument really makes no sense.

Obama can only win southern states with large black voters, yet that doesn't explain his winning of Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Alaska, Idaho, Minnesota and Washington.

Your argument is that Clinton can win Virginia because she's winning conservative voters, so you can admit Obama could win conservative states, since he won over conservative voters in many of the primaries and caucuses thus far.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

49. "caucuses"

[Drunken Irishman]

52. Good to see you can't refute anything I've said.

You haven't changed!

:hi:

[rodeodance]

72. Seems to me you have not given any attention or THOUGHT to his responses or you

not have spouted off as you did.

[XemaSab]

86. Are you high?

:shrug:

Obama's won Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Connecticut and Maine, in addition to a bunch of plains, western, and southern states.

Try to tell me how we're going to win without at least six of those states. I'm all ears. :)

[MagsDem]

27. OMG, you folks are really clueless

He's making the exact same point he has been making all along. And he is absolutely correct.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

38. I think they're faking it. They know the truth.

[Drunken Irishman]

41. Oh has he?

Are you paying attention to his points? He's said Obama does well in conservative states, states we have no chance of winning in November and that Clinton wins the states we need to win in November. Forget, for a second, Obama did well in Illinois, Washington, Missouri, Delaware, Connecticut and looks poised to take Maryland and DC -- two Democratic strongholds. But now that Clinton is doing well in conservative western Virginia, it's proof she can win the state? How? And if it's proof, then you've got to admit Obama has a chance of winning all those conservative states he's won so far.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

45. He won't win all of Kerry's states (PA is one) and he won't pick up a single Bush state

[Drunken Irishman]

48. Proof?

Do you have evidence to suggest he won't win Pennsylvania? Or are you doing your patented spew and run? You're good at shooting off your mouth without a nary of evidence to back it up.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

51. Clinton won by 9, Gore won it by 5, Kerry won it by 2.

[Drunken Irishman]

54. So wait, Gorerry is running for president now?

[MagsDem]

56. Math and reality -- you're asking too much of them

[Proud2BAmurkin]

57. I think the _math_ is fine

[Drunken Irishman]

59. What math?

Where does it say, in the laws of math, that Obama will lose PA?

[gmudem]

61. Where the hell is P2B using any math?

Link please.

[karynnj]

100. Who was running against a sitting President in a time of war?

This reflects how tough those races were. Clinton was running against a President at 40% approval - that was an easy year that was going to be a Democratic win.

[brooklynite]

101. Please explain the concept of Pennsylvania

Yes, its got a very conservative core between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. But rather pointing to how DEMOCRATS split in liberal vs conservative districts, please explain why either candidate's chances of picking up REPUBLICANS or INDEPENDENTS is better or worse.

[Raydawg1234]

73. They also won't vote for McCain n/t

[aquarius dawning]

79. Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line.

If you think Republicans won't fall into line behind a genuine war hero like McCain, you're optimistic to a fault and, to put a finer point on it, there are moderate Democrats that can fall into line behind him too. These things matter in winner take all statewide elections.

[liberalnurse]

74. That is so very true!

Coal miners, poor women, dry counties, moonshine, 80% unemployment. " Loretta Lynn" rules.

Just listen to the music by Ralph Stanley....

http://www.ralphstanleymuseum.com/

[XemaSab]

89. And some of this board argue that Obama is too pro-coal!

:P

[muriel_volestrangler]

91. Obama wins the conservative VA vote too. Breakdown of the ideologies in that poll:

        conservative moderate liberal
Clinton      40%        42%     32%
Obama        56%        54%     66%

So, Obama is getting more conservatives than Clinton. What's your point, again?

[Telly Savalas]

7. Actually, it's proof that only Obama can win.

Demographic issues.

[JackORoses]

69. this guy is such a douche, He never explains how Democratic Primaries have any reflection in the GE

they measure different things

[rodeodance]

70. Try looking at the stats and analyzing them for yourself. Then ask questions

[cali]

82. bwahahahaha

YOU? Telling anyone to look at the stats? YOU? Telling people to analyze?

:rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I think I've figured it out.

You really are an Obama supporter trolling as a Clinton supporter. Ya' know, make everyone think all Clinton supporters are clueless.

I'm on to you, buddy.

[JVS]

4. So now only the Western rural Virginia hinterland counts?

:rofl:

[XemaSab]

90. Until the county results come back

Then it's all those African-American coal miners. :crazy:

[tammywammy]

6. How is THAT proof?

:crazy:

[Telly Savalas]

10. He misinterpreted.

The survey results are proof that Obama would win the general election by a margin of between 6.37 and 7.51 percentage points.

Demographic issues.

[Iktomiwicasa]

11. because he said so.

[HughMoran]

12. You sneaky heart thief

I'm gonna steal that pic and use it in my sig :P

[Proud2BAmurkin]

15. be my guest!

[HughMoran]

16. It makes me lol

You're a nut

[Proud2BAmurkin]

19. lol

a beloved one apparently

[Renew Deal]

13. So Obama will win and that proves he will lose.

Brilliant!!!

You should get a refund from the Mark Penn school of politics.

[MagsDem]

25. I get the feeling you guys want to be fact free....

But here's the real issue: He will not win a single southern state in the general election purely because of race politics. There are no end of white dems that will only vote in the GE, and many, many, that will never vote for a black man. Mark my words, he won't win a single southern state. Name me the last democrat that won the presidency without a single southern state?

Hillary can easily take AR and TN, possibly FL and MO. Obama cannot win a single southern state in the GE. So stop comforting yourself with meaningless national polls. We use the electoral college in this country, and his chances of winning the GE are non-existent because of that.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

29. Won't win a single southern state and don't forget PA. Won't win that either.

[Renew Deal]

42. You're in fantasy land if you think Hillary will take any of those states.

She's going to be losing blue states. She'll never have a chance to pick anything up. She'll lose central and eastern Tennessee BIG. No chance in Florida. She couldn't even win the primary in Missouri. And Arkansas is highly unlikely, but I'll give it to her. What's that, like 4 electoral votes?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

46. She could pick up FL, OH, AK, and outside chance of TN

[MagsDem]

62. Do you seriously not understand the difference between the demos...

... of a primary election and a GE? Seriously? I really can't believe people that would post on DU don't get such things. The primary is the base, the GE is everyone.

I repeat, he will not win a single southern state, and so he cannot win the GE. You do not understand southern dems and indies if you don't understand this. Hillary will easily take AR, and very possibly TN, MO, and FL. Why? Because southern dems will vote for someone they identify as southern, but never for a black man from Chicago. What southern state do you think he can win in the general and why? And if you concede he won't, what is the path that takes him into the WH?

Clue, there isn't one. Do the fricking math, and stop criticizing people that can do the math.

[XemaSab]

92. You're flat wrong.

Arkansas has 6 electoral votes. :)

[gmudem]

18. Wow this is almost too much.

Obama is winning the majority of the state. Yet that proves he can't win. And because he's losing by far the most conservative and rural area of Virginia, that also proves he can't win.

What?

Not to mention, by far the majority of Virginia's population is in the northeast, southeast, and central parts of the state, so I would take that as a good sign for him that he is winning the most populous parts of the state.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

21. He's winning areas democrats always win

[tammywammy]

24. Kinda like Clinton's winning states democrats always win

Right? Like California and New York? Isn't that why Obama's going to lose the election, because he's only winning "red" states? So it's okay when Clinton wins "red" areas, but bad when Obama does? :crazy:

[NJSecularist]

26. Kinda like California, New York and New Jersey, right?

The same states Hillary was bragging about earlier today?

:banghead: :banghead:

[Proud2BAmurkin]

40. no he wins areas within states he'll lose and loses big states with big primaries.

[NJSecularist]

43. Are you suggesting that Obama will lose NY, NJ, Mass and CA in the general election?

Is that really what you are suggesting?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

47. Very possible he loses CA, and likely he loses PA and definitely loses FL

[NJSecularist]

50. Very likely he loses CA?

How exactly?

The Repugs haven't taken CA since Reagan was in office.

It's solid blue.

I don't think he likely loses PA, either.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

53. Arnold with McCain who they don't hate and who Hispanics woudl accept

[southern_dem]

55. No Democrat will lose in Calif. n/t

[gmudem]

58. Your logic is truly astounding.

Unfortunately you confuse your misguided opionions with facts, and if your opinion is that Obama will lose New York in the GE just because he lost it in the GE, your logic is shockingly misguided.

[XemaSab]

93. Especially when you consider that he got 40% in New York

which is Hillary's "home" state.

She beat him by 17% in "her" state, but he beat her by 32% in Illinois. :P

The only states she's had greater wins in are Oklahoma (but she lost OKC), Arkansas, and um... Florida. :crazy:

She also beat him by 15% in Massachusetts, but she lost Boston. :crazy:

She beat him by 13% in Tennessee but lost Memphis, Nashville, and Chattanooga. :crazy:

All her other "wins" have been by less than 10 points. :shrug:

[gmudem]

39. And?

Weren't you the one saying Obama might not win California or New York just because he lost the primaries there? Which is it? He wins Democratic areas and that's proof he can't win in the GE, or he doesn't win in Democratic areas and that is proof he can't win in the GE?

Do you realize how you little sense you make? And speaking of demographics Northern VA is incredibly diverse so that's another good sign for Obama if he does well there. Also I would hardly say that Democrats "always win" in Central and Southern VA. Even the 11th district, which is the district George Mason University is a part of, has a Republican, Tom Davis, as its congressman, and this is one of the more liberal areas of the state.

It would also help you to realize that Western VA is mostly very rural and just a small part of the state's population is out there.

[tammywammy]

22. No logic allowed!

;)

[MagsDem]

33. Apparently not

If logic was allowed the Obama supporters in this thread would understand the point the OP is making. I don't know why this simple concept is so difficult to understand. It ain't rocket science.

[BeyondGeography]

28. When Webb is on the ticket his numbers in Western Va. will improve

and Va. will go deep blue.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

32. Webb isn't going to hitch his wagon there

[OzarkDem]

36. I thought Obama had "coattails"?

Why does he need a ride on Webb's?

[cali]

83. He doesn't, but odds are that if he wins big in VA

Webb will endorse him. I'm sure you'll be just thrilled for him.

[CreekDog]

30. Of course he is weaker winning just 3 regions, compared to her winning 1

Are you becoming a parody of yourself?

[tammywammy]

34. No you don't understand

Clinton's winning the conservative area not that area that always goes blue. LOL.

[BlackVelvet04]

37. I'm surprised......

but you're right about the general election.

[AX10]

60. She's winning the working class voters hands down.

Tell that to Randi Denial Rhodes.

Obama bodes badly for the Fall election.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. Because, you know, all the wealthy liberals live in Richmond.

[gmudem]

64. Not to mention all the latte liberals in Norfolk.

Oh wait, I meant midshipmen.

[Thrill]

67. Yeah because the working class is going to vote for McCain in the GE?

Give me a fuking break

[Thrill]

65. Clinton continuing to lose MEN support

Proof she can't win a General Election

[donheld]

66. You're suppose to give those hearts to others

You sure are giving,,, to yourself.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

68. They aren't real.

Right-click and see. They're a fake .gif from a Photobucket account.

[qanda]

75. That's pretty pitiful

I was wondering when DU had lost its collective mind. Thanks for sharing that info.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

76. come on

it's nowhere near as bad as some:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4547290

[donheld]

77. I should have known. What about that poster isn't fake?

:crazy:

[catagory5]

78. actually the OP is spot on!!!

You know if my Gal doesnt get the nom, I am all for Obama. The sad fact of it is this: OP is correct. Obama is actually winning the states that should be won. He is winning alot of the states so far but there really is not one state in the bunch that is cross-over for the GE. Look if Clinton is not in there I will do whatver I can for the Party, but I will bet you dollars to doughnuts that behind the scenes the high ups in the Dem Party have and are talking about all this more than once

[donheld]

80. A broken clock is right twice a day n/t

[muriel_volestrangler]

87. In this case, Obama is winning Virginia.

They point to a survey which says Obama is beating Hillary 60% to 38% in Virginia. Bush won Virginia in 2004 - so it looks like a crossover state to me (unless you're saying there's not chance of the Democrats taking Virginia in the presidential election in 2008 - but with a Democratic governor, and 1 Democratic senator, it looks possible to me). The one figure the OP pulls out from the survey is Clinton beating Obama in one section of Virginia - just 22% of the state.

Which are the cross-over states, in your opinion, for the GE?

Now, the survey doesn't ask "if the other Democrat was the candidate, would you still vote for them?", which is the really relevant question for this.

[XemaSab]

94. Colorado. Iowa. Missouri.

And in future primaries: Virginia. West Virginia. Kentucky. :)

As opposed to Hillary's Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, and Florida. One of which we're going to LOSE and one of which was sorta kinda crooked. :P

[SoCalDem]

84. Wow they opened those polls early and they count fast too

:rofl:

[Zech Marquis]

85. ....

Here in Virginia, most of the people happen to reside in the northeast, southeast (including me) and central regions.

[Spider Jerusalem]

88. And...most of the population of Virginia is where, again?

Nice try, though.

[Meshuga]

95. Western VA, LOL

:rofl: Good for Hillary for getting the support from a handfull of people who live in western part of VA! :rofl: That really shows how Obama cannot win a GE! Wow!

At least you can bullshit yourself in order to cope through the month of February. Good for you!

[theHandpuppet]

96. As a Hillary supporter I have to disagree with you to a point

I understand what you're saying but if Obama would choose a running mate like Jim Webb he could most certainly win Virginia (which has been trending Dem anyway) and possibly N. Carolina, especially if Edwards stumps for him in the fall.

To pick up traditionally GOP states in the south a lot will depend on his choice of a running mate and voter turnout. In the deep south voter turnout will be more crucial than running mates or endorsements. I would agree with you that those states will be difficult to carry unless dems turn out in record numbers. Conversely, if McCain picks a VP mate like Huckabee it would be difficult to carry those same states unless there is a massive voter registration drive and a very high turnout.

I do believe he could carry Ohio, since they now have a very popular Democratic governor and a Dem Secretary of State and won't have Taft and Blackwell to steal the vote for the GOP. Still, it will be close, as the western half of the state is very red (as is Cincinnati). PA will be tough and for some odd reason has been trending GOP. Florida will also be close only because it's voting system is so corrupted.

So I agree and disagree with you to a point. As I said, much may depend on who the VP candidates are on each ticket. This is where it gets a little more tricky for the GOP candidate. Presuming it's McCain, he will have to decide whether to try to bolster the ticket with someone like Huckabee, who appeals to the evangelical crowd and is certainly more personable than McCain himself, or choose someone like Condi Rice to regain the interest of the neocons and also steal back GOP women and some independents.

Tricky, tricky. It will be tough but if Obama could win even a few crucial southern states like Virginia and Florida it could be done. There is little margin for error.

Anyway, that's just my opinion. I think the scenario I propose would hold true no matter who the Dem candidate might be.

[book_worm]

97. Isn't it good to have this guy gone.

[jefferson_dem]

102. Yes.

:applause:

[Occam Bandage]

98. I'm just going to laugh at your tombstoned ass.

[IronLionZion]

99. You're tombstoned! Proud2BeADisruptor!!! You disrupted poorly.

[mckeown1128]

104. Sniffle...I am just so happy.... I never thought this day would come. nt

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

103. Damn, what took ya'll so long? It's about fuckin' time. n/t

[thevoiceofreason]

105. Thought the skies started looking a bit murky.