My Prediction for the primaries and beyond:

[jlake]

This is my honest prediction on what will happen.
Obama is going to win the nomination - only to crash and burn in the GE and become a pariah in the party.
People will wonder what happened; how did so many people get caught up in the "movement" - they will realize the illusion and the blank slate - and just stare in disbelief at the foolishness of so many.
Unvetted, new to politics, in over his head, preaching on hope, not issues, and baggage that will be a goldmine for the GOP.
McCain will win in November and have a dismal 4 years. In 2012 Hillary will win the nomination and presidency and serve for 8 years.

[DB1]

1. IMHO, you are out to lunch. N/T

[jlake]

2. Well. Those are my honest feelings. What do you think will happen?

[orleans]

3. well--i, for one, will fucking kill myself if a republika goes back into that

white house!

[jlake]

4. I may as well. Those are not my hopes, but what I really think.

I am very sad because I honestly feel that is what is going to happen.

[Hutzpa]

6. Good luck with your thoughts

[orleans]

16. jlake--it cannot happen. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN!

the people of this country have had quite enough--and it will not happen again.

[DB1]

5. Obama will be elected in a near landslide, despite lots of voter....

disenfranchisement, he will invigorate a green culture of economic change, our allies of old will reach out and embrace us once again, we will get out of Iraq, (and it will be chaotic, but not be some kind of uncontrollable nightmare resulting in near "Armageddon" that is predicted), the region will actually thrive with less of our presence, with help of other nations it will be less anti- American and less pro radicalism, they will follow our anti fascist lead, we will restore habeus corpus and respect our constitution, our economy will begin to boom as a result of Detroit making a whole new fleet of 40 plus mpg vehicles for us to buy with a tax credit for buying American made, massive Wind and solar power projects will reduce our need for greenhouse gas uses, we will not have enough skilled workers to keep up with the new skills needed,, people will come out of retirement to help, it will be like the CCC of FDR except privately funded, our schools will excel out of need and the result of Obama's education policy of making college affordable.... I think a lot more good things will happen but you probably won't read what i just wrote so what the hey?

[jlake]

7. I read your post. I hope you're right. I just don't see him winning at all - let alone a landslide.

[DB1]

9. Do you get out much or rely just on cyberspace? Honest question,No ......

offense intended. Have you caucused, gone to rallies, gone door to door or anything where you talk to regular folks not political junkies like our selves?

[jlake]

12. in PA, we haven't had our primary yet - but I have been to a rally for Obama and

a dinner with Hillary. I have phonebanked for Hillary.
I talk to regular folks about politics whenever I get a chance.
I do not base my beliefs on DU - or I would be celebrating President Kucinich.

[DB1]

13. Touche'

[Thrill]

8. McCain doesn't have a chance in hell against Obama

[NJSecularist]

10. Nobody really knows what will happen in the GE if Obama is nominated, jlake

The Democrats will pick a candidate who we feel can win the election in November. We aren't electing Kucinich or Dodd who stand no chance of being elected. Both Obama and Hillary have reasonable chances of winning the presidency.

You talk about how it would be a given if Hillary won the nomination that she would carry some southern states... let me remind you that Bill never won over 50% of the popular vote in his two terms. It's not a given that she does either.

The real work will be done on the ground... hopefully our ground game in key swing states like Florida, Michigan and Ohio has improved since 2004 since we have been throughly outclassed by the Repugs in that area over the last 8 years.

I do think Hillary would do an admirable job fighting for our party if she was nominated, but you also need to see the flip side of that. Hillary mobilizes the GOP base. Does the way she has ran her primary campaign give you any confidence in the general electin, especially with that idiot Mark Penn at captain?

[jlake]

14. I don't think that Hillary is guaranteed to win any Southern states.

I think we have a fight on our hands.
But my honest assessment is that Obama stands a very poor chance in the GE.
He has not been vetted and does not know what to expect from the GOP.

[NJSecularist]

17. He has been well-advised

and has learned from Dean, Kerry and Gore's mistakes and built himself into a juggernaut candidate.

I don't feel like either Hillary or Obama gives us any distinct advantage per say in how many states they give us right off the bat. Both of them are going to have to work hard on the ground. Both of them are risky candidates. Both of them can crash and burn. The crash and burn factor isn't just limited to Obama.

I honestly think that you are shortchanging Obama and I think that he can turn some purple states to blue - Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado, perhaps even Ohio.

We will have a fight on our hands no matter who we nominate - the Rethugs aren't handing us anything, and Hillary isn't just going to walk into the White House unimpeded.

[grantcart]

11. Before polishing off your prediciton I recommend reading this article

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993/Vote-of-Confidence/

Now if Obama can add 100,000's of thousands of voters to the voting rolls in Chicago (and get them to vote) how many millions can he get in the country?

[jlake]

15. I read it and applaud him for his work.

I just don't see it happening on the national scale.
I think the GOP is going to be brutal beyond belief - and that Obama has NO idea what is coming.
But if he can keep the hype alive for 9.5 more months - he may be able to win - but that is a long time.