Exactly 4 years ago: February 12, 2004: John Kerry comfortably leads Bush 52%-43% (ABC/WP)

[Universitario]

At this point, Republicans had successfully gotten rid of a big threat: Howard Dean, attacking non-issues such as his wife and his screams.
Does it sound familiar?

Little did Kerry know...he was next.

In a head-to-head matchup, Kerry beat Bush by 52 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Feb. 12. His job approval rating was 50 percent, down from 71 percent on April 30, two weeks after the fall of Saddam Hussein's government.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A677-2004Feb23.html

[DB1]

1. McInsane is not an incumbent. Big difference, don't you think? N/T

[blm]

37. Had McAuliffe secured election process after 2000s theft Kerry WOULD be in WH today

Wouldn't he?

[MADem]

2. There was more than a little "SO THERE!!!" in-yer-face smugness happening, too.

A lot of laurels-resting, and no small amount of chicken-counting-before-hatching as well.

If people don't get their shit together after we pick a candidate, we could end up with PRESIDENT McCain. It's not impossible.

[MADem]

3. Pardon my doubleclick....!!!

[angie_love]

4. What does it say that Hillary is only able to tie McCain?

in all national polls?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

5. Fully vetted and tested and she ties. When issues come up she'll destroy him.

[angie_love]

6. fully vetted my ass. Obama has thrown nothing at her, hasn't dug anything up on her

Shes had it easy murkin.

[jackson_dem]

14. Where have you been since 1992?

[Dogmudgeon]

16. "Shes had it easy ..."

Turn the TV on.

It's a non-stop Obama love-fest, and Hillary is spoken of as the Wicked Witch.

--p!

[Kahuna]

19. How can she destroy him when she's almost the same? If people want a hawk

McCain is their person. Not Hillary.

[robbedvoter]

10. It says manufactured polls are trying to manipulate us in the other direction

Those polls at this moment in time mean bubkus. And I happen to believe - well, see my sig line.

[jackson_dem]

13. That she is a lot stronger than Gore 00', Bush 04', and Bush 88'

Bush 88' came from 17 points down and won by 7. Gore came back from 11 down and won. Bush 04' came back from 8 down to win by 3.

[Zynx]

24. Yeah it actually seems being ahead at this point is a curse.

[WillTheGoober]

22. It says...

She is running a primary campaign and not a general election campaign.

I think it's safe to say that Hillary can fully take all gloves off with McCain.

Hillary hasn't been able to attack Obama; he's a media darling and has positioned this so that any criticisms of him become a question of race. In a general election, the Republicans won't be so kind.

I go back to my original question...
Since when is the candidate of hope and change loved by the mainstream media as Obama has been?

Hillary has combated sexism, the scrutiny of being in the White House, and a concentration of negative media focus and attention.

The real question is -- how is she still even in this?
If everybody hates her and loves Obama -- how the hell is she still in this?

Well ...

[robbedvoter]

7. Good reminder. He also won though - folded after. But here's my 2004 recollection:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4346496&mesg_id=4346496
"Maybe they've seen the light" famous last words of Deanies in 2004

Polls like that one were what MSM was doing for kerry - according to the living room promise. It's how they manipulated us.
The one ray of light this time - manipulating seems a bit harder this time...

[BeyondGeography]

8. Let's wise up and pick the better-known candidate who fares worse against McCain in all the polls

[robbedvoter]

9. No, let's recognize that those polls are manufactured BS - part of the way MSM

manipulates us at this stage. Other than that, my sig line reflects my opinion.

[jackson_dem]

15. Like Bush 88', Gore 00', and Bush 04'

I'm sure the parties would prefer going back in time and choosing Dole in 1988, Bradley in 2000, and calling Alan Keyes off the bench in 2004. ;)

All three universally known candidates were losing badly. They didn't opt for a "new" face and all three won as the new faces saw their negatives rise after being in the spotlight and under fire for months from the other party.

[Renew Deal]

11. Welcome to the payroll.

I mean DU! :hi:

[GalleryGod]

21. Hey, B-7 ! Can you believe the "height of shiite" passing for discourse around here?

Hemingway,when soused at Toots Shors' Saloon with Jackie Gleason, was asked by Gleason the definition of "courage" ?

"Grace under pressure", he bellowed

We'll see, Mr & Mrs. Clinton, We'll see.


:patriot:

[jackson_dem]

12. And at this point in 2000 "new, charming, change candidate" Bush lead Gore 50-39

He wound up losing by half a million votes. The "new" candidate always suffers once folks get to know him and the other party attacks him. McCain will go down, Obama will go down a lot. Hillary's negatives will stay the same and she will rise relative to McCain like Gore and Bush did in 2000 and 2004 against "new" candidates.

[Straight Shooter]

17. I remember pre-election polls showing Kerry winning by a squeaker.

Listening to the members of DU figuratively high-fiving one another and hollering "Landslide! Landslide! Landslide!" made me feel like someone was walking on my grave.

Everything is so easily jinxed, people are so easily manipulated. Poll numbers at this stage of the game don't mean squat.

[MagsDem]

18. In a meaningless national poll

Some people learn the hard way.

[JeanGrey]

20. Kerry was never going to get it, sorry. This is a totally

different time. It was lost when kerry marched out and saluted on that stage.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

25. While I agree the salute was dorky, he didn't lose the election by doing it

I'm sure those shameful lies about his military service hurt him, the election was lost through voter suppression and election fraud. The fix was in then, and probably is now. What we need to do is get so many people out to vote that it's impossible for them to steal.

[JeanGrey]

38. I'm sorry but I don't buy that. He just didn't get enough

support. His wife hurt him badly as well.

That is what worries me about Hillary. She could lose. I don't think Obama will.

[Independent-Voter]

26. Kerry was a douche extraordinarre. Dean was a far better candidate.

Please Dems, don't fuck this nomination this time.

[karynnj]

31. Insulting Kerry doesn't make Dean a better candidate

Dean only got 18% of the Iowa vote - before the scream - because he was already imploding in Iowa. He had already lost a huge part of his earlier NH lead to Clark and to a lesser degree to Kerry.

That poll was a snapshot after Kerry had had 4 extremely good media days that formed most of the view of him conjoined with Bush having slipped from his 60% approval in December 2003 to 50%. There was no Republican race, so it was part of the short time period where the Democrats got more coverage.

The view of Kerry was:
- The Rassman reunion a few days before Iowa - likely the most genuine campaign happening in my life
- A jubilant Kerry winning in Iowa
- A jubilant Kerry winning in NH
- A jubilant Kerry getting 5 of the 7 states in the first multistate day

and his excellent debate performances - where he was in those latter primaries very commanding and Presidential - and mainly hit Bush on a variety of issues contributing to that shift from 60% to 50% for Bush.

[JeanGrey]

40. I disagree. I saw the debates and I don't think Kerry was

commanding in any of them - and that is hard to do against Bush for god's sake. But he was a lot like Obama and kept saying "I'll change things" with very little substance. The difference is Obama has got the "mojo" going for him, the Camelot, Kennedy, thing going. That is tough to beat if not impossible. People rarely see their heroes in true light.

[JeanGrey]

39. Yeah, afraid so. Even if not true he sure exuded

dorkiness. I am terrified we'll nominate Hillary and blow it again. Today it hinted that Pelosi is leaning towards Obama. I bet you the super D's are starting their secret little meetings about how to handle this.......................

[Occam Bandage]

23. Yep. Early polling is worthless.

[Infinite Hope]

27. Just imagine if he started even or behind his opponent like Hillary is. n/t

[leeno]

28. Just how does one factor in the diebold margin of error to these polls?

add 9 points to the repugs?

[yardwork]

29. Note that chimpy's job approval rating was 50% at the time.

Chimpy's approval rating is in the toilet now, and there's no incumbent running.

Also, Kerry won the election. We need to make sure that this one isn't stolen too.

[karynnj]

32. It was 50% and had fallen from 60% - at the time, the WH claimed

it was due to the media emphasis on covering the Democrats.

[kentuck]

30. B.S.B.

Before Swift Boat.

[underpants]

33. Nope doesn't sound familiar at all. The MSM never let anyone hear it

Couldn't let people know that not only was it OKAY to not like W it was actually the "thing to do" in the group think world we live in that could have set W's defeat in concrete....but then they have ways of fixing that too.

[LadyVT]

34. Yeah, some of us are old enough to remember.

[Stevepol]

35. That's not too far from the margin that Kerry actually won by, What's the problem?

At least according to the exit polls which are a hundred times more trustworthy than the electronic voting machines.

[blm]

36. Are MOST Demlawmakers supporting McCain the way many Dems including both Clintons

did on his terrorism and Iraq war decisions throughout 2003-4?

Would the last Dem president spend his 3 week book tour DEFENDING McCain the way Bill defended Bush in 2004?

Will Dean be a better steward of the DNC than Terry McAuliffe and be mindful of security of the election process?