Reality electoral college math for Obama supporters

[MagsDem]

Primary wins do not translate into GE wins. Never have, never will. Some states are blue, some states are red, and some states have a history of going either way depending on the candidate.

If you can't tell us a single southern state Obama can win, you cannot make a case that he will win the GE. Do you seriously doubt Clinton will not win every blue state? Can you seriously make a case that Obama can win a single southern state? Can you name me a dem that has been elected president without winning a single southern state? Can you seriously doubt that Clinton can take at least some of the same southern states that Bill won?

Don't spout that national poll nonesense. It doesn't mean jack in this country. We use the electoral college.

There is no scenario where Obama wins the GE without taking a southern state. So Obama supporters, what southern state do you think he can win? Keep in mind we are outnumbered by rethugs in every southern state. To win a southern state as a dem you have to be thought of as a southerner, and the Clintons are southerners.

And if you think southern dems and indies are going to vote for a black guy from IL you are simply dreaming and do not understand racial politics in the south.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

1. And then there are the blue states he can't win. PA for one.

[liberalnurse]

4. I have been trying to communicate this for at least a week here.

But, with the infestation of obamarites, realistic thinking is not an option. Thank You for sharing!

[smalll]

12. You and P2B are so right on that one --

Not only is PA highly blue-collar, but it also may be the most pro-military, veteran-filled state in the nation, which gives McCain a big advantage we'll have to deal with. Don't worry though, Obama will take Idaho! And Alaska! That'll make up for the Keystone State, won't it? :eyes:

[Proud2BAmurkin]

20. yup the candidate has to clear a national security hurdle and then appeal to blue collar

there's one Democratic candidate who meets those, one who doesn't

[RamboLiberal]

28. I live in PA - Hillary will be hard-pressed as well to win here

over McCain. There's a heckuva lot of Hillary haters here. And there's a ton of Toomey Repukes vowing they will not vote for McCain. They might sit out, but if Hillary is the nominee they will hold their noses to vote for McCain.

I think we have enough Dems in my area of SW PA that Obama could narrowly carry. In the more progressive turning SE portion of the state near Philly I think he would do very well. We also have several large universities/colleges in the state where I think the youth would be excited and motivated to turn out for Obama.

I doubt with either candidate that we can carry the South. Hillary may not even win Arkansas if the Huckster were on McCain's ticket. I think Obama can win any Blue state that Hillary wins and can carry some states in the Southwest and West that have turned purple.

[billbuckhead]

56. Obama would lose Pennsylvania by ten points

[RamboLiberal]

88. So might Hillary - I'd rather take my chances with Obama

n/t

[southern_dem]

94. How?

Run up huge margins in Philly, Pittsburgh, and the college towns. Isn't that how Democrats usually win?

[billbuckhead]

162. The suburbs will bury Obama and Pennsylvania has few blacks

Working class whites won't vote for Obama and will vote for the white guy.

[yellowcanine]

203. What is few? PA is about 11% African American.

Not huge, but hardly few. PA is also a relatively strong union state that regularly gets a big Democratic turnout. Obama is actually doing quite well with white males everywhere. No reason why PA should be any different. PA also has a large college and university population and that group is going absolutely gaga over Obama. Obama is going to win PA handily in November if he is the nominee.

[Hawaii Hiker]

199. Not a chance, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh are strong Democratic areas,

Philly usually goes 75%+ for the Democrat, & Pittsburgh is about 55-60% in favor of the Democrat....

Obama can easily win PA.....

[billbuckhead]

209. The suburbs will bury Obama

Most of the people in the suburbs are part of the "white flight" movement.

[MagsDem]

29. LOL - Obama is not going to win ID or AK either

But you probably know that. LOL

[newmajority]

58. Oh yeah, Genital Wig is RIGHT on that one. Hell, he's RIGHT on everything he says

In fact, he's EXTREMELY RIGHT. Like most paid DLC shills, including the one who started 2 dozen Obama bashing threads in one day, and can't seem to make up their mind what fucking side of the country they live in.

[Mr.Fitzgibbons]

184. and here I thought I was the only one reading that pun into "amurkin"!

And I thought I was projecting!

[cloudythescribbler]

164. From whence was this assumption about Penn pulled? nt

[ray of light]

2. New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, FLorida,

South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Arkansas, Alabama--

He'll be winning all those and in the general he'll be winning PA, NY, MI, IL, CA, OR, WA, VT, MA, CT, AL...

[MagsDem]

15. You live in a true dream world

You think he is going to win LA, GA, TN, KY, FL, and AL in the GE? You are so off your gourd I don't even have words to express the lunacy that is in your statement.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

22. I wish I lived where he does or at least had some of what he has

[SKKY]

36. Actually Mags, before calling people crazy, how about a little research...

...I'm only speaking of Kentucky, because that's what I know best. They just got rid of the first Republican Governor in more than 34 years. The war in Iraq has exacted a particularly big toll on Fort Campbell, and it's playing to our favor in the local media. Opinion polls on Republicans are not good right now, and have been steadily declining for a while now. Kentucky is very, very much in play this time around. Win Louisville, Lexington, and a few counties and Obama/Clinton can turn this purple state decidedly blue.

Another thing, you're assuming Obama/Clinton are not savvy enough to pick a candidate who can help them in the South. For example, Evan Bayh would be a huge benefit in Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee if he were the VP nominee.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SKKY]

53. Evan Bayh will accept either invitation....

...any suggestion to the contrary is foolish. Any chance you'll back up your blanket stereotypical racist remark with fact? Here's a link to a USA Today Poll that was taken before Super Tuesday and before the Momentum for either candidate had reached Kentucky. Lots of upside for Obama if you ask me.

http://www.beloblog.com/WHAS_Blogs/PoliticalBlogger/2008/02/mccain_strong_but_obama_fever.html

[MagsDem]

59. What's racist about my remark?

Am I supposed to pretend there isn't a problem with racism in the south in order to satisfy people like you? Sorry, I'm not into denying reality.

And before you make bullshit assumptions that I am racist perhaps you should know I supported the black dem over the white woman in the 2004 dem primary race for governor in WA, with both my money (to the limit, in fact), and a lot of hours pounding the pavement, where the state is not as racist. But I wouldnt have been stupid enough to waste either my money or my time if he was running in KY. I'm a realist.

[SKKY]

68. "...a black boy"...

...Obama would win in a landslide in either Louisville or Lexington. And in reading your other posts on this thread, I think race is EVERYTHING to you. Why people are so hung up on race is a mystery to me, but as long as WE as democrats keep making it an issue, so will the Republicans.

[MagsDem]

82. You live in la la land

I lived there for 5 yrs, following 7 yrs in TN. I still travel to the south at least once a month. And reality is that is how they still refer to black men there.

Do I think it's right? Of course I don't. And fuck you for implying I ever said anything even remotely suggesting I did. I have supported black, female, gay, lesbian, dem candidates and every other type of minority you can name for over 30 yrs. I supported Ron King for Governor over Gregoire in WA in 2004 with both my money and my time. Why? Because he was the better more progressive candidate, and unlike Obama, he doesn't suck up to homophobes. So fuck right off. If there is a bigot between me and Obama, it sure as hell isn't me.

It IS an issue in the south, and all the pretending in the world isn't going to make it a non-issue in southern states. Like it or not, Obama does not have a prayer of winning a single southern state because of racial politics there. You can deal with it, or you can shout racism against people you know nothing about. And then you can fuck off.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

104. The point is...

What 5 years did you live in KY? It seems to me that it's on the verge of changing its politics (elected the first Dem governor after 34 years)

I've lived in this one area in Minnesota for 25 years, we've always known it to be conservative (In fact only twice since 1893 was there a Dem representative was elected, Once in the thirties a guy for the Farmer-Labour party which merged to the DFL). In only the past 25 years the two most recent Dems were elected. So what I'm saying before 1983, the last Democrat representative was elected in 1891. We went 100 years without voting in a Democrat in my district.

I've seen so much change in my area, becoming a bit more liberal. We elected a wonderful guy to our House of Representatives in 2006.

It really depends on what time period you lived in KY. I moved out of Minnesota before our Democrat representative was elected (I had campaigned for him shortly before my move and participated in the caucuses as well). I also lived in Boston for 6 years as well... so I witnessed the governorships of Jane Swift and Mitt Romney, I didn't think they'd elect a Dem governor because the attitude there was that they wanted to balance out the Dem majority with a Republican governor.

Little did I know that the next Dem governor would be the first black Dem governor of Massachusetts.

You might just be reading a little bit too much on your experience in KY. I really did think that the Republican in our district would win in 2006 because our district's been so conservative for so long.

[MagsDem]

106. 1995 through 2000

And as I have previously posted I travel there on business regularly, and I work in a very politically charged field. Going dem and going MA liberal dem, or black dem are very far removed from their recent inching towards conservative dems because their rethugs are just so fucking corrupt.

If Obama takes KY in the general election PM me and I will donate a thousand dollars to the candidate of your choice. Sorry, but you're dreaming.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

129. In 1996

I campaigned (as a 15 year old high school student) for the Democrat in our representative race. It was such a close race. I even appeared in a couple of her advertisements. In '98 she tried again but she lost. 2000 I don't even know who ran against the Republican as I moved to Boston that year. 2002, ditto. 2004, I found out at a rally for Kerry (who Max Cleland gave a speech for) who was running against the Republican and I said Who is he? and My mum said, "Oh he's the next person to lose against the Republican."

In 2006, when Tim Walz ran. I felt different. I felt he was THE one to beat the Republican. I got a little emotional when I met him because I knew it. "I heard about you on DailyKos, I think you'll get this." (he was one of the Fighting Dems then).

Barack Obama came to our area to campaign for both Klobuchar and Walz in 2006, he electrified the crowd. I'm willing to bet the formerly conservative 1st District of Minnesota went overwhelmingly for Obama during ST's caucuses. It went to Bush in 2000 and 2004 (albeit narrowly).

What my mum says (I've never seen Obama speak in person and she has) that he's such a wonderful speaker, he holds everyone's attention. He takes the time to campaign in each state (aside from MI and Florida) and people are appreciating that. He'll definitely take Kentucky during the primary season.

The GE could be another story. After 34 years, Kentucky elected a Democratic governor so it could go either way in the in the GE. When Obama wins in Virginia, it could influence Kentucky's decision in the primary and possibly the GE.

I underestimated Massachusetts in the Governor race. I was skeptical of Walz winning the 1st district because I felt the district was too conservative. I thought Obama would lose Louisiana (since it bordered Arkansas) and Maine. Hillary won NY, MA, and NH after all, and she was the one more likely to win ME IMO. It was a real surprise to see he won ME and swept her under the rug.

Really, Kentucky is a different state than compared to 8 years ago. Just like the first district of Minnesota was different 8 years ago. You might be proven wrong in this case.

(EDIT: to fix my horrendous spelling)

[JeanGrey]

137. Funny, I live in Georgia and routine travel to Alabama and South

Carolina and also Kentucky/Tenn and I have never ONCE heard anyone call a black person a "black boy". In fact everywhere I go people are on fire for Obama. I've never seen anything like it. Never. I know people who I KNOW FOR A FACT can be racist, and yet they are voting for the man!

My husband and I were talking about it last night - he has got everything going for him. Not only do I think he is going to win the nod, I think the election is going to be a major blowout.

A landslide is quite possible.

[Mags]

157. With the BO people, you can't say anything about him or you will be called a racist.

Anything negative about BO is a no no according to his followers.

[susankh4]

124. I'd say this is about right...

I live in Cincinnati. On the cusp of KY and IN. All of these states are really a no win proposition for Obama. Even if he can take them in the primaries (with only dems voting.)

There is a reason Byah is endorsing Hillary. He wants a Dem win in the national election. Same with Strickland in OH.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

131. If Cincy is considered historically conservative

I'm willing to bet that the Democrats that live there might go to Obama.

[susankh4]

179. That is doubtful, honestly...

But it won't matter if they do. Cincinnati's precincts always go GOP in the big race. It is SE Ohio that Obama would need to win. That's coal country out there. Union folk.

And Central Ohio. Liberal. Heavy population of out gays and lesbians in Columbus. They don't seem to like who Obama tours with.

I suspect NE Ohio *may* go Obama. I'm not sure tho. NE Ohio neighbors upstate NY...... that is Hillary country.

[susankh4]

180. That is doubtful, honestly...

But it won't matter if they do. Cincinnati's precincts always go GOP in the big race. It is SE Ohio that Obama would need to win. That's coal country out there. Union folk.

And Central Ohio. Liberal. Heavy population of out gays and lesbians in Columbus. They don't seem to like who Obama tours with.

I suspect NE Ohio *may* go Obama. I'm not sure tho. NE Ohio neighbors upstate NY...... that is Hillary country.

[LiberalFighter]

152. Evan Bayh would not add anything to anyone's ticket.

It would be a mistake if Bayh were elected as VP. The Governor, currently Republican would then appoint a Republican and would remain Republican for a long time after that. Even if Bayh were to decide not to run for re-election next time he was up it would go Republican because there isn't another Democrat in Indiana that could win that spot.

Bayh a benefit in winning Kentucky and Tennessee? The only effect he would have on them would be to put them to sleep with his speeches.

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination should be able to win Kentucky on their own.

[JeanGrey]

136. I live in Georgia hon. Trust me he WILL win here.

[leftynyc]

141. My friend in GA laughed at me

when I asked if Obama could win GA. She says he'll do well with the students and staunch dems but would lose every independent and puke in the state.

[JeanGrey]

159. They're wrong.

[Nedsdag]

169. Tell me which Southern states Hillary wins?

Don't say Arkansas because if Huckabee is on the ticket, the GOP sweeps the south.

[ArkySue]

195. I WILL say Arkansas

I live here, Arkansas will go Hillary big time.
Primary Results 2-5-08
Hillary Rodham Clinton 206,983 69.7%
Mike Huckabee 130,541 60.3%

She got way more votes that Huckster did.
You forget, we know both of them. ;)

[theaxe7]

211. Florida

[emilyg]

44. You're dreaming.

Wake up.

[mtnester]

114. I will let you keep a couple of those for fantasy purposes

but no way does he win Alabama...the last Dem to do so was Jimmy Carter.
You know what..he won't win Georgia either..hell I will also take away KY, SC, NC and GA too. The others you can dream about for awhile.

[greguganus]

154. He will win North Carolina. Edwards is out and no one I know wants Hillary.

Nothing but "Obama08" signs and bumperstickers here. Only other signs I see are home-made "RonPaul Revolution" signs that someone has plastered up and down Interstate 40.

[cloudythescribbler]

165. From your lips to God's ass -- I'll give you 2-1 or better odds the pukes carry KY AND GA in Nov nt

[TAWS]

3. Georgia

He has a very good chance at winning Georgia. It's the only southern state with a huge city like Atlanta. Atlanta will go big for him. Keep in mind Clinton won the state in 1992.

[MagsDem]

16. Oh my god, you folks can't really believe this???

Bush won GA by 17% over Kerry in 2004. Bill Clinton won GA by one half of one percent because 12% voted for Perot. You people live in a fricking dream world.

[emilyg]

46. Welcome to DU. I live in Ga.

He won't win here.

[alphafemale]

69. He'd win in GA light years before Clinton ever would. He'll win ANY southern state before Clinton.

No contest.

[AndyTiedye]

77. No Democrat Can Win Georgia As Long as Every Vote is Counted by Diebold Repiglican Electing Machinez

[MagsDem]

93. more la la land

Bush beat Kerry by 17% and a million votes in GA. You think Diebold even had to bother there? This la la land mentality is why dems consistently lose the presidential election. It makes a practical dem weary. And it's why I say no when the party calls and asks me for money. Our voters are so out of touch with reality that we simply will not nominate someone that can win. In the case of Obama it's not even a party purity issue. Side by side he is LESS progressive than Clinton, which is no mean feat. But the media tells you he is "transformational" and that's all you need to hear.

[Leopolds Ghost]

168. So \'progressive\' Dems who believe in electronic voting machine fraud are in la la land

But you're simultaneously pushing Hillary as more progressive than Obama, i.e. more likely to do something about electronic voting machine fraud.

[Dawgs]

140. I live in GA and he can definitely win here.

[bluestateguy]

5. He can win Virginia and Florida

Both states have high concentrations of non-native white Southerners, who are more likely to vote for a black candidate. In Georgia, a state with a fair number of non-native white Southerners, he got 43% of the white vote, but I don't think he'd win Georgia.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

10. lol. Max Cleland lost GA

[MagsDem]

17. He got 43% of the dem white vote

You know any candidate that can win a state when he can only get 43% of the dem white vote? It sure as hell ain't Florida, or VA for that matter. You're living in dream land.

[LisaL]

31. Florida is full of old people.

Not exactly Obama's voting block, is it?

[susankh4]

126. Florida: Retirees and Latinos

Who is it that these two blocks vote for? HRC.

but they won't mind McCain.

[JCMach1]

41. I have huge doubts about FL... 0% chance if Crist is on the ticket

with McCain

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

6. No democrat will carry a southern state

Not in 2008, not in 2012, not in 2016.

Some argue that Clinton could carry Arkansas in a general, but I live there and doubt that. The way I see it we have more to gain with Obama (Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado) and more to lose with Clinton (New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota). It's all about independents, which Clinton does not appeal too. Obama can at least tap into that group.


Democrats wake up, the south for us is dead. We should focus on the southwest because that is more favorable to us longterm, rather than trying to capture past electoral glories.

[Lucinda]

13. Hillary got more votes in AR than Huckabee, McCain & Romney COMBINED

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#AR

And apx 76k more voters voted Dem in the primary than Rep.

[MagsDem]

18. Not true - Hillary will take AR easily

If you think the south is dead for dems then you think we will never win a presidential election again. Clinton will win AR hands down, and has a credible chance in TN, MO, and FL, which have been trending dem, but where a black guy just isn't going to get votes from white people. Turning a blind eye to racial politics in the south is not a ticket to a dem win in Nov.

[AndyTiedye]

84. The Southwest Had Possibilities for Us, but Against McCain?

He's a favorite son there.

[southern_dem]

7. All he has to do is win all the Kerry states

and then flip an Ohio (very possible considering the '06 Dem sweep) or Florida (less likely). Throw on possible states such as MO or CO and it's icing on the cake.

[MagsDem]

19. Ohio is white except for Cleveland

He isn't going to flip any white state that isn't already blue. He's not even going to win the primary there for the same reason.

[southern_dem]

26. Outside of the

Cincinnati suburbs and the Appalachian areas in the SE part of the state no one will give a rats behind that he's black.

[MagsDem]

32. They care in every other race in Ohio

How many black people in the Ohio congressional delegation that are not from Cleveland?

Answer: Zero.

[Orangepeel]

8. Yes, I seriously doubt that Clinton can take at some of the same southern states that Bill won

I think that she can win Arkansas. I don't think she can win Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky or Georgia.

I don't think Obama can win those states either. Either one needs to win Ohio.

I think either CAN win. I don't think it will be easy for either of them. I also think Obama will win by bigger margins in the states that he'll win, which will help protect that win.

[MagsDem]

21. She's an absolute lock in AR

I don't think any dem is going to win KY or GA, but there is no reason she can't win TN, MO, and FL. I repeat, Obama will not flip a single southern state, and given that he cannot win the GE.

[Orangepeel]

155. Is Ohio a southern state?

Both Clinton and Obama will have to win Ohio. Neither will win Florida. Unlike the rest of the country, Florida has trended more republican in the recent past. Independents will associate McCain with Gov. Crist rather than Bush.

[Orangepeel]

156. ..

..

[AndyTiedye]

9. Subsitute "Hillary Clinton" for "Obama" in the Above, and it Still Applies

We will have grave difficulty winning this election with either candidate.

Either way, it all comes down to Ohio, and we know what that means.

[MagsDem]

23. No, it doesn't

She spent most of her adult life in the south and those southern women will vote for her, indies and dems will bring her AR and TN, and perhaps MO, and FL. Ohio is the same scenario for Obama as the south. He will not win it.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

193. then why can't she win them in the primary?

when you throw repubs into the mix, it's even harder for her in the general

[XemaSab]

11. You're right. We'd be fools to ever nominate an African American (or a woman).

Why didn't I see that before? :banghead:

[MagsDem]

24. Not as long as we need a southern state -- not now

You underestimate the racial politics of the south. They are still slapping confederate flags on their pick up trucks, and I include dems when I say that. You might as well expect them to vote for a gay atheist. Ain't gonna happen in 2008.

[XemaSab]

27. I've seen more Confederate flags in California

than I have in the South. :shrug:

[MagsDem]

33. Well then you obviously never lived in the South

Because having lived both places I can say with absolute certainty that your statement is absolute bullshit.

[XemaSab]

45. I spent three months in South Carolina without seeing any Confederate flags outside the

state history museum.

I've spent a total of about 4 years between Shasta and Madera counties, and it's about one a week there. :shrug:

Oh, and for extra credit, the synagogue a block from my house in Sacramento got firebombed. :P

[MagsDem]

50. Really? Tell me about the ten year controversy CA has had...

over whether or not to fly the confederate flag like the ten year controversy in SC?

Oh wait, you can't. Because it didn't happen. It is still a campaign issue in SC.

[XemaSab]

57. California was never a part of the Confederacy.

Therefore, there's no argument: It's a symbol of hate. :(

[MagsDem]

60. Exactly

And guess what, they STILL don't elect black people in statewide elections in southern states.

[XemaSab]

75. Which begs the question of how many minorities California has elected?

:shrug:

All our governors have been white men.

Looks like as far as the Senate goes we've had one Japanese man (from 1977 to 1983), one half-Jewish man (who was appointed and in office for only four months in 1964), and two Jewish women.

So much for electing minorities to statewide office. :shrug:

[johnnydrama]

30. really

you think that guy with a confederate flag on his pickup is going to vote for a woman.

Now who's dreaming.

[MagsDem]

37. I think his wife damn sure will....

You don't understand southern woman. They don't take no bullshit from their men folk, but they are also no paragons of black power. See, what you don't understand is that white southerners are afraid of black people. They aren't afraid of southern women.

[XemaSab]

49. How is Hillary not a Yankee?

:shrug:

[MagsDem]

51. She's not a yankee because she spent 12 yrs ....

as the first lady of a very southern state. Just ask 'em in AR. They will be happy to claim the Clinton's as their own. Every dem I know in AR adores them, and some rethugs as well.

[crispini]

132. "They aren't afraid of southern women."

Indeed, but don't you think that right there means they're going to lean McCain? Especially when it comes to Terra! Terra! Terra! :eyes:

[Leopolds Ghost]

170. Maybe that's why white women aren't voting vor Obama in the Dem primaries.

"You don't understand southern woman. They don't take no bullshit from their men folk, but they are also no paragons of black power. See, what you don't understand is that white southerners are afraid of black people."

Also applies to white yankee housewives in NH, OH, PA, upstate NY.

DAYUM DAYUM DAYUM!!! you got pwned.

[D-Sooner]

194. Stop! You're killing me!

I'll say this: Your average southern woman is not the feminist you make her out to be. If you're talking about just Democrats, sure, but there are far fewer Dems in the south to begin with.

Bottom line, Hillary is NOT a southern woman and southern women do NOT claim her as their own.

[chascarrillo]

48. Wow. Just wow.

[MagsDem]

52. Welcome to reality land

[chascarrillo]

64. Take your racist arguments the hell away frrom this board.

They're not welcome here.

[MagsDem]

72. And what specific "racist" remark are you referring to?

Please, be specific.

[Bluerthanblue]

167. all I can say is-

:hug:

don't let her get to you-
It's sad, really sad, but not something she can even see.



peace~

[juajen]

181. Speak for yourself, I heard reality, not racism.

I am a southerner, and what she says is true. I have lived many years in each of these states: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana.

[underpants]

158. DON'T NEED THE SOUTH

The Republicans are backed into the south anyway. The battle will be for the mountain states and perhaps VA as well as the normal "swing states"

Don't need the south

[ArkySue]

198. That's what President Kerry said too

:eyes:

[Jamastiene]

14. I'm a southerner.

I can vouch for this. The electoral college is the deciding factor, not popular vote. Refer back to 2000 and see who got the popular vote and who we have had to put up with as president for the last 7 years. They are not the same. Popular vote doesn't amount to a hill of beans in this country. It's as simple as that.

[MagsDem]

25. Thank you -- I spent 12 yrs in the south, working in politics

I still travel there on business on a monthly basis, and have since I left 7 yrs ago. They ain't going to vote for a black guy in 2008. Obama winning the nod is an automatic loss for us.

[dkf]

97. So you don't want Obama to win because he is black?

At least you are truthful.

[MagsDem]

108. LOL - that is truly the most pathetic strawman I have ever seen constructed

... in my entire 30 yrs of watching politics. I would love for there to be a black candidate I could support. But Obama could be a purple martian and I couldnt support him. However, regardless of my personal feeling about him as a candidate, reality is he has about as much chance of winning in the GE as the liberal MA dem we nominated last time. For remarkably similar reasons, unfortunately. People have biases. He not electable in the GE.

If this party wants to actually seat a dem in the WH we are going to have to get way more real about those biases. Hillary is a pretty crappy woman to have to rely on to break the ceiling. Obama is an exceptionally crappy person to support as well. But even if he was great, he couldn't win. This is the land of prejudice. You want to win, you have to understand that. But we won't get in the WH because our voters are frankly pretty damn dumb, as evidenced by the unelectable candidates we consistently nominate.

[dkf]

111. You said he won't win because he is black.

Aren't you telling us we shouldn't vote for him because he is black? Because it looks like it to me.

[MagsDem]

112. You can vote for him, but he is unelectable in the GE

And you should take a reality pill and realize that before you do the same damn dumb thing we did by nominating a MA liberal in 2004. Are we clear now?

[dkf]

116. Yeah I understand that you don't think a Black person can be President.

You are part of the minority in this country that would love to keep black people from running because you are afraid of losing.

You want to tell all the black kids that there is no point, because people will always be prejudiced against you.

Well I reject your worldview and I believe the people of this country will too.

At least now I absolutely know where you are coming from.

BTW I'm asian. What race may you be I wonder?

[MagsDem]

120. Not in 2008 as long as we need the south (white indies and dems)...

or the west, where we need hispanics to win. I'm a lesbian and I don't think a gay person has a chance in hell either. Does that make me prejudiced against gay people too?

Really, take your bullshit assumptions and put them where they belong. Then take a ride on the reality train that is the country you live in. You can vote your ever loving democratic la la land heart, but that isn't going to put a dem in the WH.

And for the record, it's damn embarrassing that we have two, count 'em two really, really shitty candidates to be the first black and the first woman. She just sucks less than him, and she would actually have a chance because bigots in this country are slightly less bigoted against women than blacks.

So no, you clearly have NO idea where I am "coming from."

And might I add that hell will freeze over before I will vote for a guy that looks me in the eye and lies to me like Obama has done in this campaign. That's if I could even excuse his complete and total pandering to homophobes. Let me repeat, it is embarrassing as a dem that he is the first viable black candidate. She is only slightly less embarrassing, but much more electable.

Leave it to the frankly moronic dem base to make us choose the lesser of two really bad candidates, and a completely unelectable candidate in Obama at that. They do it every 4 yrs, so I don't know why I am surprised.

[dkf]

127. Only time will tell which of us is right.

This will be a test of the American electorate and I really want to get past all this racist, sexist, anti-gay crap.

BTW, I read some of your other posts and you are right, you don't hate him because he's black, you just hate him period. And I don't even think you hate him because you think he will lose.

I can sympathize because when I feel like Hillary will win I get that way about her too.

Luckily my guy is in better shape now, so I'm not spitting mad like I used to be.

[Leopolds Ghost]

172. "not as long as we need the south" -- to quote Tonto -- What do you mean "we", white man?

Why should blacks vote Dem if Dems are unwilling to push the boundaries on civil rights?

People told JFK and LBJ not to vote for the Civil Rights act for the exact same practical political reasons you are using to say, don't allow Dems to nominate a black man or they'll lose.

[Jamastiene]

205. Exactly.

The white vote in the south, for the most part, is not going to be for a black man. I wish that wasn't true, but it is.

[SoCalDem]

34. Simple math.. If the sooooper delegates meddle, and it even appears

to have been "taken away"..a la FL '00 & The Scalia-5, there will be about 50% of dems who may just "sit this one out"..

Is it nice?
Is it fair?
Is it smart?

NO NO NO..but it WILL happen..mark my words..

Race WILL be an issue if the soooopers interfere..

They may show up to vote for congress & senate, but many will deliberately NOT vote for president or may even write in Obama's name..

[Proud2BAmurkin]

35. The reason that rebellion won't happen is

Obama will accept it and endorse the nominee. What's he going to do burn his own bridges? That's not the Obama we know and love.

[SoCalDem]

39. HE may, but the double-crossed faithful are the ones who have to go to the polls

in Nov..

People who have been let down time after time, eventually have a limit...

[MagsDem]

42. What's your concern?

Her support is solid in the blue states, and Obama will win almost none of the primary states he has won in the GE. That simple math can't have escaped you, can it?

[SoCalDem]

47. I will vote for either..but I'm pretty sure that a lot of disaffected

angry people will boycott IF it appears that he was cheated.. That's ALL I'm saying..

So if HC is "counting" on a whole bunch of angry people to fall into line and "get over it", I'm just saying...I'm betting they will tell her to go pound sand..and we will end up watching President Walnuts take the oath on Jan 20..

That's all I'm saying.....

in a FAIR count with ONLY people who actually went to the polls & voted, if he lost/loses, they would take it in stride, but the whiff of dirty tricks & sneaky backroom dealing will take the oxygen out of the room and kill what should be a cakewalk for the democratic party..

I'm old school and I've seen it before..but it takes decades to overcome the death of hopes & dreams..

[MagsDem]

54. You mean people that want the rules changed just for Obama?

These have been the nominating rules for as long as I can remember. Are you saying people will expect those rules to be changed for Obama? Are the rules suddenly unfair because he is running? I'm sorry, I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

[SoCalDem]

61. This is why I avoid GD-P..

Let me spell it out..

IF the "super-delegate" vote appears to go AGAINST what the PEOPLE voted for on election/caucus days, there WILL be a LARGE group who will "see behind the curtain" and figure out that their votes are/were meaningless, and they will be TURNED OFF...FOR DECADES.

It may be the "way elections ahve always been", but tens of thousands of NEW people, excited, eager people have gotten their hopes up and are expecting this thing to be fair..to look fair..and if they get turned off...END GAME..


Going back in time..., not many people got all jiggy for Hubert Humphrey


If the wrong groom showed up at the altar, would the bride just say.. "well he's ok, let's go ahead with the wedding"?

[MagsDem]

67. So, you do think the rules should be changed just for him

Got it. It doesn't work that way, has never worked that way. If you really believe what you are posting you should be completely against the caucus system. It's basically a state version of the super delegates. The candidate that "hires" the most people to show up at the caucus wins.

[SoCalDem]

74. the "rules" allow caucuses.. and

No one is asking for the RULES to be changed for anyone.. I am talking about the perception of shenanigans... rules have nothing to do with it..

supposedly the "rules" were followed in Florida back in 2000.. were we "ok" with it then??

[MagsDem]

85. The rules are that super delegates exist and they get to vote however they want

Those are the rules. Super delegates voting for the candidate they choose to vote for are not "shenanigans." There are the same rules the party has used for decades.

[SoCalDem]

95. and they will vote..and we will all live with the consequences

que sera, sera:hi:

[juajen]

190. Oh, sure, they'd take it in stride. What a laugh! They won't let people who

voted for Hillary be counted in Florida or Michigan. You will not blackmail the dem party, nor can HRC's voters be bullied. That's exactly what ya'll try to do. Bully those stupid, old, female voters of Hillary and we will get our way. In grade school, maybe, but most of us are a tad older than that; except for the glitterbabies, that is. Really, you should hear yourselves.

[MagsDem]

40. Exactly. Obama's political future is Obama's number one

priority in life. If it weren't he wouldn't have flip flopped on whether he supported his party on legislation to end the war. And he wouldn't have raised $350K for Joe Fuking Lieberman, and called him his mentor before he got religion on Lamont.

[juajen]

186. The reason for super delegates is not so they can echo the

will of the people. They have to consider other things, else they'd be redundant. It does no good whatsoever to threaten the super delegates with rebellion. We either do away with them, or let them do their jobs, which, ironically, is breaking a tie and looking out for the interests of the party.

If Obama had won Florida, we would play hell getting those votes out of your hot little hands. One of Obama's supporters posted that he had no problem giving these votes to Clinton IF SHE DIDN'T NEED THEM. What a laugh.

She won them fair and square. She didn't even protest when obama broke the rules and advertised in Florida. Obama has become like Bush, you know, teflon coated. Everything slides off him. You folks just loved that in Bush, didn't you.

You are so blinded by his charisma, that you fail to note his faults, or missteps. He advertised in Florida. That's a fact. Trying to excuse it doesn't work. It just is. Floridians could vote uncommitted, write him in, or vote for someone else. Someone else won. Her delegates and votes from Florida and Michigan should go to her. She should not be punished because she made the right decision and left her name on the ballot, as permitted by the rules.

Those states also should be in her win column. You can bet your fortune that they would already be in Obama's if the reverse were true.

[rodeodance]

38. Hillary has ALLWAYS thought ahead to the GE. YES she HAS.

[newmajority]

55. Obviously Skinner hasn't applied that SPAM restriction policy yet

How many hateful, libelous threads can one person post in a day?

[MagsDem]

63. Reality is not our enemy

Nor is it hateful or libelous. It's just the way it is. And by the way, my definition of spam are posts that completely ignore the topic of the thread like Obama supporters are prone to do. If you have something to say about the topic of the thread, say it. Otherwise why not start a thread about something you want to discuss?

[newmajority]

80. Why are you so full of Hate?

I'll bet this is your favorite song of all time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDfIOr1ByIc

[Yossariant]

81. You have posted nothing but spam to this thread. What are you afraid of?

[newmajority]

87. The entire fucking thread is spam.

Some of it bordering on racist hate speech.

[Yossariant]

89. More spam from you. There are other threads. You do yourself or your candidate no favors.

[IamyourTVandIownyou]

62. Georgia and Louisiana and South Carolina

On Georgia,

"On the Democratic side as Barack Obama crushed Hillary Clinton up and down the state, swamping her in nearly every demographic and geographic area. Turnout was heavy across the state."

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/02/06/gaanalysis0206.html

[IamyourTVandIownyou]

66. And if its Obama/Webb or Obama/Edwards, even more crushing.

crush crush crush.

[MagsDem]

71. What does that have to do with the GE?

I have news for you -- it has NOTHING to do with the GE. 1 million dems voted in this "heavy turnout" primary. 2 million voters voted for Bush in 2004. Get it yet? No dem is going to win GA in the GE.

[juajen]

188. I have a sister, a republican, who lives in Atlanta.

She said that there was heavy crossover vote for Obama from pugs. Of course, they will not vote for him in the GE. I'm sure there are some pugs that will vote for him, just not as many as all of you think. Remember Cynthia McKinney and Max Cleland? Georgia's twisted vote history is legend. Obama's adding to it.

[Raydawg1234]

65. Martin Luther King would love this thread.

:sarcasm:

Yes, I guess that you could say we have a dream.

[MagsDem]

76. It's fine to have a dream....

It's not fine to pretend we can win a presidential election with a black candidate if we need s southern state to win. That is not reality, sad to say, anymore than it was reality to think Geraldine Ferraro was going to win when she ran as VP. So go ahead and dream on, but also be prepared for 8 more years of rethugs if we give the nomination to Obama.

[Raydawg1234]

91. Your reality sucks, makes me wanna sit in my house and smoke joints all day.

However, reality is that Obama stands a very good chance of being the nominee, and you're just gonna have to accecpt that. As far as the GE goes, courage, guts, got any??

[MagsDem]

100. I won't vote for him and I have been very clear why

He's not honest. He doesn't have the experience. He has pledged to "work with rethugs." He panders to rethugs and homophobes. And he can't win. And guess what, I wouldn't vote for him if he was white either. Not even in the GE. My biggest beef is his bald faced lies about his flip flop flip votes on the Iraq war, the patriot act, and his ties to Rezko. The only other politician I have ever seen that can lie as easily as him is George W Bush.

[GoldieAZ49]

70. you sound like the teacher on Charlie Brown

Blah blah blah blah blah paragraph after paragraph

[calmblueocean]

73. The problem is that this is Hillary's primary to lose. And she's losing it.

Berating the few hundred people who frequent DU might make you feel better, but it's not DU that's losing the nomination for Hillary, it's Hillary. Maybe she won't lose it, who knows, but the momentum is definitely not trending her way. The fact of the matter is that if Hillary can't even win a primary against a first term black Senator with no executive or foreign policy experience, then your argument that she can win the south is moot. She's proving right now exactly what kind of campaigner she is. She should've popped Obama like a paper bag months ago -- she's had 18 freaking debates to do it. Your rage would be better directed at Hillary and her campaign manager than anyone else.

[MagsDem]

110. The dem party has a pretty consistent record of nominating....

unelectable presidential candidates in my 30 yrs of voting. It would not surprise me if they followed the trend this year as well. Unfortunately they seem to let the media do thier thinking for them. So my rage seems pretty well directed in the right direction to me.

[Raydawg1234]

78. Why do you spend all your time attacking Obama, I count 4 threads you started attacking

Obama. Where are your threads that talk about Hillary's positives?

[Sanctified]

79. And not being able to win a Primary always translates to not being in the General.

Sorry but if Hillary loses the Primary she loses, end of story no need to ponder if the loser of the Primary would win the general.

[Yossariant]

83. It's called "thinking like a superdelegate." They want to win the general.

[Sanctified]

86. Really because I always thought if you could not win a Primary you had a...

snowballs chance in hell at winning the General. Has there ever been a President who lost a Primary but won a General?

[MagsDem]

90. Electibility is an issue in the primaries

If you nominate a guy that can't win the GE you are asking for a loss. And that is what Obama supporters are asking for here. Unforunately it's the same old story with the dem party. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, etc. We pick candidates that cannot possibly win in the GE, and then wonder why we lost.

[newmajority]

99. But Kerry WAS electable!

The same DLC that signs your paychecks repeated that line over and over and over again in the whore media until the damn fool sheeple believed it, and then they went with him instead of an obviously better candidate like Howard Dean, who would have wiped the floor with Chimpy's ass in the General. Instead we got "Swift Boat Liars for Nixon" and "Y'all want some wood?"

Now the DLC is telling us to vote for "electable" BushClinton terms 8 & 9 and everything will be glorious, despite the fact that it is OBAMA who is bringing record turnout to the polls, and getting people to believe in something again.

Sorry, the electability bait & switch isn't working this time. We have the truly electable candidate, and he IS winning.

[MagsDem]

103. No, Kerry was not electable

But no one listened to reason then either. It was the same la la land we are hearing now. And it sure as hell wasn't coming from the DLC. It was coming from the same no nothing's about GE politics that it's coming from now -- the media.

Get over the DLC will you? They have NEVER been a factor in a dem election and they never will be. Stop acting like they ever have. It's complete bullshit.

[karynnj]

146. Yes he was -

He came very close to winning Ohio and would likely have won it if there were a fair race. He would then be President.

Had he gotten a decent break in the media, he would likely have won other states - possibly Virginia where he lost by a relatively small margin. If you don't consider that the media was extremely on Bush's side ask yourself if you would ever have thought before 2004 that people at a major convention could wear purple heart bandaids and that no one would say a negative word at the convention and that the media would cover it as a novelty.

2008 will be a substantially easier year.

[southern_dem]

102. what proof is there Clinton is any more electable

she has a ceiling of 45-48 in almost every single poll? Yes, it's a national poll but if you run one in battleground states she'll probably have the same numbers.

[Yossariant]

92. Primaries are relatively new. In 1968, there were only 13 in the whole country so

most of our Presidents have never won a primary.

[VotesForWomen]

192. duh...if hillary loses the primary she won't be in the GE, so she can't win. gee, why didn't

the rest of us think of that? clue: how a candidate does in the primary does not dictate how they would fare in the GE.

[Sanctified]

200. Wow I have no clue on how to respond I am still dumbfounded by your user name. n/t

[southern_dem]

96. Since you seem to have an answer for everything

What if we forget about the South and look at some more Western states. If we can flip 3 out of 4 from IA, NV, CO, and NM then the Dems (narrowly) win w/o the South. None of these are outlandish since all are at worst tossups to trending Democratic.


P.S. I actually agree that Obama can't win any Southern state. However, outside of maybe Arkansas, Clinton won't either.

[MagsDem]

105. Obama can't win 3 out of those 4 either

Clinton can win NV and NM, Obama does not have a prayer in the GE in those states. I will grant you he could win IA, but none of the others. Hispanics have not supported him.

[southern_dem]

107. In the primary you're right

but by the same token Clinton hasn't done well with blacks or independents. Either candidate is going to have to do some outreach once the primaries are over. It's the independents I'm especially worried about, because McCain has always done well thanks to his maverick BS.

Hispanics (non-cuban) are moving towards the Democratic party more and more every election so I think it's possible for Obama to make inroads. Texas will be a good test in that regard.

Sorry for posting so much on this thread, I live for political scenarios and statistics. :)

[MagsDem]

109. First I appreciate your posts to this thread

It's nice to see someone actually stick to the topic of the thread so consistently. I think you're correct about the outreach that will be needed. Indies in the swing states can go any of the three ways available to them. But indies in southern states will not vote for Obama. Racial prejudice will rule the day. And I disagree with you on hispanics voting for Obama. I really don't see them turning out for Obama in any real numbers anywhere -- not in swing states, or southern states, or even blue states. I agree that Texas will be a good indicator of that, but I would also add that NM, CA have already proved my point in that regard. If Obama is the nominee you will see less support for him among hispanics than you saw for Kerry, and that will sink us.

[MagsDem]

117. Well the media is settled on the sheeple nominating Obama

Just like they convinced the sheeple to nominate a MA liberal. So I guess we will see. It's possible that Obama can win IA, but the racial politics of the hispanic vote in NV and NM offer the same scenario of Obama's chances in the south. On CO, you are simply dreaming. Not going to happen.

[Warren DeMontague]

98. So, to summarize your argument: "We can't nominate Obama... cuz he's black".

:puke:

What a fucking cesspool this place has become.

[MagsDem]

113. Take a ride on the reality train

He has about as much chance of winning in the GE as the liberal MA dem we nominated last time. For remarkably similar reasons, unfortunately. People have biases. He not electable in the GE.

If this party wants to actually seat a dem in the WH we are going to have to get way more real about those biases. Hillary is a pretty crappy woman to have to rely on to break the ceiling. Obama is an exceptionally crappy person to support as well. But even if he was great, he couldn't win. This is the land of prejudice. You want to win, you have to understand that. But we won't get in the WH because our voters are frankly pretty damn dumb, as evidenced by the unelectable candidates we consistently nominate.

[cali]

101. pathetic

hate has driven you around the bend.

All of JK's states and three from column A

NM
CO
IA and
oh yeah, VA

He has a much better chance than Hill.


lame.

[MagsDem]

115. I will give you IA

He has a 50-50 chance there. Unfortunately, that won't get it. But you are dreaming about CO and NM and VA is really la la land as far as the GE goes. I guess you live in the la la land of California, right? I live in the real world of electoral politics.

[quakerboy]

118. How well do you know CO?

I grew up there, myself. And I can tell you, my dad is PO'd now, because all of our family friends from the area are turning a deaf ear to his McCain sales. They want Obama and its driving him batty. When the elderly eastern CO farmer folk are interested in the new guy, I say he's got a chance there in the general.

[MagsDem]

122. Is your dad a white evangelical or hispanic?

That's who decides elections in CO.

[quakerboy]

202. My dad is a

White Evangelical. Baptist born and Raised. Was a preacher in CO for 5 years when I was in gradeschool.

All the people who are chosing Obama and turning down his McCain salespitch.. they are mostly his old parishioners.

thanks for asking.

[cali]

130. you guess wrong. I do not live in CA

and I know NM pretty well. In NM, Udall is running 20 to 30 points ahead of Pearce and Wilson. It was lost by JK by a very slim margin. Educate yourself about how NM has been trending blue. CO is not as good a bet as VA, actually- but it's about 50-50 that it will go dem in November- if and only if, Obama is the nominee. VA is definitely trending dem and Mark Warner, by far the most popular politician in the state is the candidate for the Senate.

You seem to have a tendency to make silly guesses and speculate based on nothing but bitter partisanship.

[karynnj]

150. And you can add Ohio -

which Kerry would have won with the party in as good a shape as it is now and no Blackwell in power. That alone is enough.

[donheld]

119. Some of you people are just trying to hard

Are you trying to convince us, or are you trying to convince yourselves?

[MagsDem]

123. Kerry 2004

Same stupid base nominating possibly the LEAST electable candidate our party could possibly choose. No, not trying to convince myself. Myself has been convinced for 4 yrs. The dem base doesn't think. I think they have proved that quite convincingly.

[Leopolds Ghost]

175. Quit trashing Kerry

You obviously only want to win over Dems on DU who hate Kerry, by convincing them that Obama is a liberal (horrors) like Kerry and therefore unacceptable, who did quite well compared to previous candidates like Clinton in 92 (40% of the vote) or even Gore.

BTW Hillary is getting 80% of Kerry's 2004 voters and half of Edwards voters in all the early primaries. So blame Hillaryites for choosing Kerry.

[bowens43]

121. Obama can easily win as many southern states as Hillary.

Your argument is ridiculous and borders on racist. Yes, southern dems will vote for a black guy from IL as easily as they will vote for Hillary. Your view of the south is about 50 years out dated.

[MagsDem]

125. OMG, you do not live in the south

And you never have. Tell us, what southern states will Obama win in the GE? I can't wait to hear your fantasy.

[Dawgs]

143. I live in the South (GA), and I know for a fact that Obama can win here.

[flor de jasmim]

128. What about the youth vote?

I'm sure you Southerners have it right about traditional voters in the South (or at least I think you may be right), but what about the youth vote? A concerted effort at southern universities, for example, to get more young people to the polls. Wouldn't Obama have a change in the South then? Leaving aside political questions and Edwards' willingness to be a VP candidate again, do you think he would be an asset to the ticket? If not, who would be??

[crispini]

134. Very good point!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

p.s. please don't take anything people say personally in this forum. you'll find that there are is a lot of testiness going around these days. :hi:

[flor de jasmim]

138. Thanks! I've noticed that, too ;-)

[juajen]

191. Well, we depended heavily on getting out the youth vote

for Kerry. A lot of them stayed home. They have a problem with follow through. Depends on what's happening that day, ya know? In our university system, there is still an amazing amount of division of whites and blacks. They might turn out, or they may not. Simply put, they are not as reliable as the old grannies. My daughter, who is in graduate school, had too much studying to do to go and vote for her choice, Hillary; although she had plenty of time to go out with boyfriend the night before, when she could have been studying. See what I mean? It's just not a priority with our youthful buddies. Nice thing to do if you've got the time. I'd love to be wrong on this one, because a lot of those votes belong to Hillary.

[BigBearJohn]

133. MagsDem, you are a BREATH of wonderful fresh air. Can't thank you enough.

Firstly, I find NOTHING hateful about your postings.
I find you to be one of the most brilliant people
I have seen posting on DU in a long time. Not only
because you agree with me, but because your
arguments are based on logic and observation --
not strictly EMOTION like so many other posters
here. Look how easily they try to dismiss you by
calling you a racist, rather than confront you on
the issues, the best they can do is invalidate you
as a person -- hoping nobody will listen to you
or place any credence on your words and ideas.

Ha! By bursting their bubbles, you become
Mr. Meanie, filled with hate and prejudice.
I know how disappointed I was when I found out
there was no real Santa Claus, or Tooth Fairy, or
Easter Bunny. However, there are OTHER things
to believe in that ARE real... if a person wants to
look for them! Same rule applies to this election.

I wish you weren't right. We witness the beautiful
optimism being created by Obama and the media.
It reminds me of the 60's. Almost chanting, "I do
believe, I do believe, I do believe" -- and if they
can only get enough people to chant the same
things with feeling -- it might be enough to SOMEHOW
win this time. Then you come along and try to
remind them of reality. Well, at one time in this
planet's history, people BELIEVED the earth was
the center of the universe. Then this fellow named
Galileo came along and tried to make them
face reality. Our civilization almost put Galileo to
death for that. And now you're experiencing
a distorted harmonic of that same thing here.

They tell you that you are not welcome. They
try to intimidate you for posting too much. Well,
let me tell you this... if I have anything to say
about it, you ARE MOST WELCOME here and
I would be proud -- MOST proud to call you friend.

Your ability to discern, differentiate and, most
of all, stand up unswervingly, steadfastly, to the
ignorance in this place after so many attempts
to make you pick up your ball, bat and glove
and go home -- is nothing short of amazing to me.

All the names that people have you called you
are TOTALLY baseless...nothing but weak attempts to
shame or intimidate you (a great tactic to use
as a schoolyard bully.... yet not very effective on
someone with any modicum of intelligence).

Everytime you answer, you stay relevant. You
deal with facts based on your own experience.

You have renewed me. Thanks from the bottom
of my heart.

Big Bear John

[JeanGrey]

135. Sigh. He is going to win a LOT OF blue states and quite a

few red ones. I live in Georgia, we haven't gone for a dem since Bill in 96 but trust me he is going to win Georgia. Ditto Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana. Most probably the others.

Get real.

[Froward69]

139. Bill was a southerner

Hillary is/was NOT. your argument does not stand up.

[Dawgs]

142. Oh, so now it's okay to compare Hillary to Bill?

I thought you said they were different, no?

[karynnj]

144. Everything you say here of Obama can be said of Clinton

I do think that Obama will win every blue state - by definition these states favor the Democrat. Even if HRC were to win all of them in the primaries, that does not mean Obama would lose them in the general election. The states really up for grab are the swing states.

I don't think that the Democrats will carry many, if any, Southern states - with either candidate. Virginia is one possibility and its Governor, says that Obama would be more likely to carry it then Clinton and that that is part of his reason for backing him. As to winning without the South - Gore would have had the true results in Florida been known and there is a very good chance Kerry would have had Ohio been run fairly. Ohio now has a Democratic governor and secretary of state - instead of Blackwell. In addition, states like Colorado and Nevada may be more winnable than the South. There are PLENTY of strategies to win without winning any southern state at all - and I give Governor Kaine credit for understanding his state better than you do.

Secondly, other than your assertion that Clinton can win some Southern states her husband did, what proof do you have? The same people you implicitly accuse of racism have also been accused of sexism.

So,
1) There are many ways to win without a single Southern state.
2) There is no proof Clinton could do better than Obama in the South. (I had a math teacher who once said he would accept proofs by induction or deduction, but was getting very tired of proof by intimidation - where people meandered through some changes than declared it proved the result they were told to prove - and that is what you did.
3) Either Obama or Clinton are strong enough to win the blue states - McCain's acceptance of 100 years in Iraq does that for them.
4) Obama has beaten HRC in many swing states (HRC won some too).

McCain to Dem polls in the swing states would likely be the best way to see who is really the best candidate.

[Medusa]

145. Actually the reverse is true

In a general election, Obama is the candidate who is non-polarizing. Who has shown a history of turning out the vote in record numbers unseen in virtually every state for years. Obama is the candidate who is winning and doing so with numbers never seen in Republican states. It takes both party loyaltists and independents or "swing" votes to win a GE. Hillary cannot do that and has not evidenced in a single contest to date she is remotely capable of that. But keep thinking and when November comes, if she's the nominee we'll lose again. If that's what you want, keep on supporting her. But at least stop spreading BS like this when the facts tell an entirely different story-the real one.

[angie_love]

147. Wow you are truly cynical and have no faith in our country

"And if you think southern dems and indies are going to vote for a black guy from IL you are simply dreaming and do not understand racial politics in the south."

Its views like yours that would've kept us from having the civil rights movement and ending slavery. With "democrats" like you we sure don't need PUGS. So based on your opinion, we shouldn't keep fighting for a better America and seek change b/c its "risky", but stay with the status quo b/c the status quo always wins right? You sound like a racist and bitter bitch.

[Bright Eyes]

148. What southern states will Hillary win in the GE?

[mohc]

149. So your argument hinges on the coveted racist Democratic demographic

Firstly, I reject the idea that Obama, or Clinton for that matter, can not win the electoral college without a southern state. Take the blue states from 2004, which includes no southern states, and there are quite a few ways to get 18 more electoral votes. Ohio alone, Iowa and Missouri together, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico would all do the trick. Clinton would certainly perform better than Obama does in the MidSouth (AR, TN, KY), but in the rest of the South Obama would probably do better. As for a southern state he could win, I would say Virginia and Louisiana are his best chances. Will racial politics come into play in the South if Obama is the nominee? Of course, but it will split two ways with Obama. Racist Republicans aren't going to be voting for Clinton or Obama, so I am not particularly concerned what they think. My guess is the increased turnout among black voters in the Deep South for Obama will be more than enough to compensate for any racist independents he might lose. Especially considering the fact that those independents are just as likely to hate Clinton personally as they are to hate blacks. Which leaves the only group that could swing Clinton's way over Obama being racist Democrats. I don't think this group is particularly large, and even if it is, I am not going to surrender my choice for them. Clinton has no home turf, or "southerner", advantage outside the MidSouth. I will gladly take my chances with Obama.

[Leopolds Ghost]

176. Exactly. The OP's argument hinges on bringing Dixiecrats back to the party.

By nominating a comforting suburban white soccer mom who will promise law and order, and restore property values.

[Armstead]

151. Obama seems to energize Dem voters in the south and pick up others

Your basic premise is false. You assume that, otehr than Arkansas, Clinton has some advantage in the conservative states? The ones who would never vote for Obama would also never vote for Hillary.

Obama, on the otehr hand, has been generating enthusiasm and support in many Red States. That obviously does not guarantee he'd win them in the General, which would still be an uphill battle.

But his chances would be no worse than Hillary, and likely better.

[marions ghost]

183. I agree with you re Obama in the south....

"His chances would be no worse than Hillary and likely better."

You know what's interesting--political watchers are having so much trouble making any predictions about this one.

[mckeown1128]

153. What happens when Hillary loses WASHINGTON...

THAT is one of the blue states she will lose.

McCain 46% Clinton 46%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=1b3063b5-f7d7-4900-8bf3-c2cbc6a0295f&q=45621

Obama 55% McCain 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=1b3063b5-f7d7-4900-8bf3-c2cbc6a0295f&q=45622

[democrattotheend]

160. Neither will win Southern States, and they don't need to

Kerry lost every Southern state, but still would have won had he won Ohio. From what I gather talking to some political strategists, that's pretty much the plan anyway.

[Arugula Latte]

161. Obama has a much, much better chance at winning "Purple" states than does Hillary.

He has appeal to Independents and even some moderate Republicans -- she has Zero. In fact, she's the only candidate who will inspire the dejected, demoralized Republicans to come out in droves to vote against her. One big reason I'm for Obama is I believe strongly he has a far better shot at winning the general than she does. Far, far better.

[cloudythescribbler]

166. Oregonian -- I think ur SPOT-ON. And professional Dem pols in purple states ...

like Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, and Colorado seem to agree.

I think one of the reasons Obama does so well in the red/purple-state contests, including in states OVERWHELMINGLY white (where race can't be invoked plausibly to explain away his victories) like NE, KS, N Dak, ID, Utah, Alaska, and CO is that there is an acuter awareness of what the name Hillary Clinton means for Democrats down ticket -- including in states like Utah that the Democrats will carry in the prez election as soon as Hell is converted into an Olympic skating rink (downtown development).

[ORDem]

213. KICK

:kick:

[onenote]

163. you tell me who McCain and Obama's running mates are, and I'll discuss their chances in the south

Unless you have some sort of crystal ball, you can't possibly know how McCain or Obama would do in particular states. Apart from the inherently unpredictable nature of campaigns (as someone who has been voting for Democrats for 30 years, you must remember that Dukakis was up 17 in the polls against Bush less than six months before election day), there are other unknowns, such as who else is on the ticket. Because of McCain's age and Obama's relative inexperience, it is likely that VP choices will be signficant this year. Do McCain and Romney swallow their pride and join forces, stregthening McCain's standing with the conservative wing (which will want to see Romney as VP to tee him up for a run in as little as four years). Does he (and I think its unlikely) pick Huckabee, which helps him in the south and freaks out much of the rest of the country? Does he pick Crist of Florida, which probably locks up that state, but doesn't help much with the fundie right elsewhere?

And on the Democratic side, if its Obama/Webb, with Mark Warner running for Senate, I think McCain's strength with the military in tidewater is offset and the Democrats capture the state.

So, let me know a bit more about exactly what the race is going to look like.

[book_worm]

171. Oh yeah, all those southern rednecks who won't vote for Obama will vote for Hillary

yeah right.

[RiverStone]

173. And 6 months ago Hillary was the presumptive favorite...

In many of the states Obama just kicked her ass in.

So much for being a pundit eh?

Don't look, you may be surprised again.

GoBama!

[onenote]

174. The reality is that for all your supposed certainty, you don't/can't know

Apart from ARkansas, which you have declared will solidly go for HRC (which may be the case, but if McCain picks Huckabee as his running mate, don't bet the ranch on it), you haven't named a single southern state that HRC can count on winning. You've claimed that HRC has a shot at Missouri and the Obama has none -- but a mid-January poll by KCTV in Kansas City showed McCain with a 55/40 margin over HRC in a head to head match up, and 51/40 lead over Obama. As for your "analysis" of the west, you claim that HRC can take New Mexico, but Obama can't. Again, a late January poll by KOB in Albuqueque indicates that HRC trails McCain there by 51/42 and Obama trails McCain by a virtually identical 50/41.

So where exactly do you get your certainty from?

[Occam Bandage]

177. CO, GA, MO, OH, LA, VA. possibly NC.

[ordinaryaveragegirl]

178. Look at KS...

Obama won 70% of the vote here in the Dem caucus, but despite a popular Dem governor (Sebelius), Chimp won 62% of the GE vote in '04, even in the midst of a controversial war. This state, sadly, has gone red in GE since the '60's, and just gave Gomer a landslide in the Repug caucus over the weekend.

[R_M]

182. Any one who thinks that Georgia will vote for a Democrat...

is a fool. Remember war hero Max Cleland. He got smeared out of a Senate seat in the supposedly,
"patriotic" area of the country.
Ku Klux Konfederates is more like it. :puke:

[va4wilderness]

185. Yawn. Just another post on...

why southern states don't matter - be them red, blue, or purple. I'd rather hear some candidates come to the south and listen to the people's concerns here and prove that they give a d--n than more BS about race and more BS about why the south should be ignored AGAIN.

[HeraldSquare212]

187. Former Reality: Obama won't make it past Super Tuesday.

I'll stick with the guy who confounds expectations and wins.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

189. they can not hear the facts they are out on a blind date.

[LadyVT]

196. Totally. Well said!

[ORDem]

214. With so much divisivness in the Demcrats

it'll be a wonder if the Repugs don't hold on to the Presidency for the next 40 years. They must be laughing their asses off at all our arguing. :dem:

[yeswecan08]

197. More denials from people who refuse to see reality

[quiller4]

201. I expect Obama to win Virginia & So Carolina

and if you look at the demographic breakdown from the primaries Obama has been increasing his support among white men even in Southern states. Do I know the old South? Yes. I am old enough to remember the "Whites Only" and "Colored" signs throughout Richmond.

My Virgian counsins who used to call me "Ed's damned Yankee kid" voted for Obama today.

[yellowcanine]

204. Obama can win Virginia. Northern VA loves him and he had a huge win tonight in the primary there.

He also garnered a lot of independent and Republican support in Virginia (open primary)

[va4wilderness]

207. Yes, even with the much tighter race between McCain and Huckabee look how...

many more voted in the Democratic primary and for Obama in particular = ~141,000 more votes than all the people who voted for Republicans. I think that shows there is a lot more interest in Obama and the Democrats in general than in any of the Republicans. But time will tell.

[va4wilderness]

208. DELETE

[calteacherguy]

206. You are the old-style political calculus, we are the new.

You're OP will fade into the dustbin of history.

Obama will inspire ALL Americans. There are no red states and blue states, there are only the UNITED states.

[DemGa]

210. Now Obama is going to enlighten the masses?

I think you might be overreaching just a little bit.

[theaxe7]

212. riiiiiight

not everybody is buying into your cultspeak