“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,”

[IDemo]

said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

For Clinton, Ohio, Texas emerge as must-wins

-- What will constitute "comfortably", given a convincing win by Obama in the Potomac primaries today? 55%, 60%, or ??

[Captain Hilts]

1. Why does everyone forget Pennsylvania? nt

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. OK.

She'd have to win Ohio and Texas and Pennsylvania comfortably, or she's out.

Of course, the polls are close and Obama's got weeks left to campaign and plenty of momentum and money, so...

[SoFlaJet]

6. because

Pennsylvania is like a month later-by then the momentum will have shifted so far to Obama that she'll be out of it

[Yael]

7. We are the sleeper state

And Obama has a HUGE ground organization here. In fact, the organization already in place blew my mind when I joined up after John dropped.

Hillary's website doesn't even have a PA Hillary group link yet (or it didn't this past weekend).

:hippie:

[thevoiceofreason]

8. And Poland!

But really, Pa. isn't until April, right?

[IDemo]

9. beat me to it!

:spank:

[Captain Hilts]

11. Correct. But the delgates - a LOT of them - count. nt

[JVS]

21. It is a month later. It isn't forgotten, it's just a lot less immediate.

[Submariner]

2. She needs a string of Obama style blowouts

60-40 at least, or some 70-30 action.

[TexasObserver]

3. it's still a pipe dream, because she's probably losing Texas

[snooper2]

19. I know of no HIllary supporters...

I know they are out there...I haven't met any of them. Everyone in bars, work etc., are either repukes or Obama, or don't vote/don't give a shit. One thing most people I know have in common is that they want another Clinton in office about as much as they want another Bush in office.....

[TexasObserver]

20. In Texas, you will have a hard time finding Clinton supporters.

Unless you attend a function by one of the few groups backing her.

She's got some teachers, some Hispanics, some nurses, and older women. Overall, I think she's looking at a 10-15 point loss in Texas to Obama, and in the general election, she won't break 40% here, even running against Grandpa McCain.

[LakeSamish706]

5. I think that Paul Bagala said this very thing last nite (or similar to that) and...

he is a staunch Hillary supporter.

[nomorewhopper]

10. OP's quote is from a NY Times article today

which is found here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/us/politics/12clinton.html?hp

obviously, this ALL depends on the results of today's primaries as everybody is expecting losses.

clips from the aritcle:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Yet some Clinton donors and superdelegates worry that the focus on Mr. McCain is premature, and that other strategic decisions by the campaign — like counting on Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the convention even though their status is in limbo — show faulty thinking that suggests the Clinton campaign does not have a short-term game plan against Mr. Obama.

“They are looking way too much at Florida, Michigan and McCain, because all three won’t matter if she doesn’t blow Obama away in Texas and Ohio,” said a Democrat who is both a Clinton superdelegate and major donor, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment of campaign strategy. “Obama has momentum that has to be stopped by March 4.”

[Moh96]

12. 60 or 65% at least

[beezlebum]

13. obama supporters should not go getting overconfident.

she still has a decent chance.

as an obama supporter, i'm getting irritated with occasional premature celebration. aside from distraction, it too often has lead to disappointment for me (al gore , howard dean, dennis kucinich, john edwards...).

i'm personally paying no mind to the stories proclaiming _______ has the lead- it's too narrow at this point. i won't celebrate until there is no chance of loss. and by that i mean after november. go dems.

[IDemo]

14. I know she has a decent chance, and I know better than getting overconfident

I was 'vote4kerry' in a previous life! :-(

Just reporting the feeling on the ground now in the Clinton campaign, not suggesting anyone buy cases of Champagne, yet anyway.

[beezlebum]

17. i hear ya

and i'm not necessarily referring to this particular thread.

it's just that i've seen so much jumping up and down. nothing wrong with a little anticipation and excitement. i just worry because, well, i guess i've seen it happen to my guy every time. i guess i am just pessimistic for the sake of not getting my hopes squished yet again. it's just me! i'm sorry! i can't help it! :cry:

[dmallind]

15. True....and not true

I believe it's fair to say Hillary has to win more delegates in the big remaining states (including PA) than BO. This is pretty definitive since by then she'll be trailing by a small but significant amount in delegate count.

However winning TX and OH and PA by not-huge margins but still by enough to effectively tie delegate count is what she really needs to do.

This is neither unique nor original insight but bears repeating - neither can likely win without superdelegate help, and unless Hillary loses in the big states AND the small ones left, she's going to be close enough where there will be little to no "subverting the will of the people" backlash if the SD's do swing it her way. Remember the "rules are rules" thing counts both ways and we can't in any honesty say it should apply to not seating FL and MI delegates and then pretend that the superdelegate vote is not just as much of a rule if that ends up biting Obama and supporting Hillary (although I for one suspect it probably won't - momentum impacts elected officials too and we've already seen substantial SD shift Obamaward).

This is not close to over yet, but it probably would be if she loses both TX and OH (I suspect if that happens PA will be moot and Dean's suggested meeting will take place before then to clear the path for Obama). A 55-45 win in both? She's still in it.

[joshcryer]

16. She has to win by at least 61% to be in this race, been saying it for about a week now.

[zulchzulu]

18. Good luck with that...

Obama surf is up, dude.

Hillary better have her life preserver on.

[tritsofme]

22. Sounds reasonable to me.

nt

[underpants]

23. I just read the article-this doesn't look good for her at all

I can only imagine how this lifetime push stopping could feel.


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