Come in and speculate about how the primary season might go ...

[cloudythescribbler]

Here's one part of a discussion of the subject:

Let's assume arguendo that the polls in VA and MD are right, and that Obama has all three of today's primaries in the bag. I suppose it would be difficult to predict with precision, as the LOCATION of Obama's votes within each primary arena would determine how many delegates he gets. But clearly, whether Obama wins a primary with 55% or with 70% must be likely to make a SIGNIFICANT difference in delegate allotment except wherever the vote is winner-take-all. (The same applies to margins of defeat -- assuming more pessimistically than I that Obama were to lose EACH of the contests in WI, IN, OH, PA, OR, and TX <"the contested big six" remaining>, but with average margins of LESS THAN 10%, could Hillary still take the lead in delegates if Obama were to also win in NC, MS, SD, HI, WY, MO, and VT after today?

I don't know the math but my sense is that it is UNLIKELY either candidate will win enough pledged delegates to reach the magic number that secures the nomination. But UNLESS Hillary manages to average huge advantages in the above-listed states (unlikely without a MASSIVE media feeding frenzy a la Dean) then it seems the Democrats would be in a gray area of stalemate. On the other hand, if Obama runs strongly, winning at least SOME of the "contested big six", he could at least gain a commanding lead in BOTH the popular vote AND in delegates, making it all but impossible for the SuperDelegates to seriously try to deny him the nomination.

My own projection is this -- of the six big contested states, Obama will likely win or come very close in TX and OH. I do NOT think Hillary Clinton will carry Wisconsin AND Ohio AND Texas either. Hence Obama will continue to be a powerful force unless the above-mentioned media feeding frenzy (which could also come after the nomination) prevents it. Given a lot of time to campaign in PA, based on Obama's track record of NEVER being decisively defeated where he has had the time and opportunity to campaign extensively, as he will in PA, I doubt she would win a decisive victory there either. Indiana, being a red state, might be MORE favorable to Obama than Ohio, while Obama, who ran strongly in Northern CA, should do well in Oregon, indeed, I would say it's likely Oregon goes to Obama. In short, my projection is that at the end of the primary season, Obama will be in the lead (how COMMANDING A LEAD IS STILL TOTALLY UP IN THE AIR) in both raw votes and pledged delegates at the end of the primary season. This will pose a serious problem for those SDs who want to give the nomination to HRC anyway. Some Hillary Clinton backers among the SDs are, according to one thread, wavering already. This is the kind of thing which could be the coup-de-grace for HRC.

Here's where we in the grassroots come in. The MORE COMMANDING a lead Obama has in this election season, the harder it will be to deny him the nomination. Further, AND THIS IS CRUCIAL, if Democrats at the grassroots and the netroots INSIST IN HUGE NUMBERS, by petitions etc., that we NOT have any situation where one candidate has clearly won the most pledged delegates and popular vote but the SD's don't rally behind them, this would also be EVERY BIT AS CRUCIAL as the work in the primary campaigns.

Thoughts? Flames? Hearts? Bribes?

[xultar]

1. Obama will get the nom, Hillary will not be on the ticket.

[cloudythescribbler]

5. I sure hope you're right -- ON BOTH COUNTS, TOO. But Barbara Boxer might ...

be a good choice, so that there would be less disappointment at least for women looking to see a woman on the ticket. I think that is, in political reality, a legitimate concern, and I think there are a number of women who have made their OWN careers other than from their husband's coattails, and thus would at least fill in a possible area of Democratic weakness.

I think that a choice like Webb might be good also.

[NoBorders]

2. Hillary might win WI; She will win TX and OH, but

She will still end up with fewer delegates than Obama after March 4th. If she gets enough momentum out of those wins, she'll be able to keep enough funding coming in to compete heavily in PA, and probably take that as well. At this point the delegate count will be pretty close again. So then we roll into the rest of the states where Obama will probably recapture the delegate lead, if the party hasn't pressued one candidate or another to pull out (I don't see that as likely). So I think it's all going down as a bit of clusterfuck with the whole issue of FL and MI coming into play, as well as perhaps the SD's.

As an Obama supporter I hope I'm wrong, and I hope he wins either Tx or Oh, as that would seal the deal.

[samrock]

3. I think it is over...

I voted for Hillary .. but WILL vote for Obama in the general election..

Just saw poll with Obama 10-12% ahead in Wisconsin .. after that its 2 weeks till TX/OH .. this is now an unstoppable tidal wave.. I will not be surprised if Hillary does not win another state.. Soon as the writing is on the wall ( probably ~ March 5th) she should make a gracious speech .. congratulate Obama and go back to the senate.. and hope like the rest of us that the democrats did not end up shooting themselves in the foot.. AGAIN!!

[NoBorders]

4. I'm not convinced

But either way, I'd prefer for it to be settled sooner rather than later so we can get to kicking repub ass this fall.

[cloudythescribbler]

7. A very plausible scenario nt

[cloudythescribbler]

6. Well, that's an optimistic scenario from an HRC standpoint -- but possible nt

[cloudythescribbler]

8. ...

:kick: