Breaking Wisconsin Poll from Politcalwire.com: Obama/Mccain lead by double digits

[Tropics_Dude83]

Well, I had a feeling that Senator Clinton might win here but it looks like Senator Obama will be 10-0 going into March 4.

http://www.politicalwire.com

PPP Poll: Obama, McCain Lead in Wisconsin
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 50% to 39%. His support cuts across all racial and gender lines.

Key findings: "Obama actually barely leads Clinton among self identified Democrats, 46% to 44%. But there are a lot of independent voters in Wisconsin, who can vote in the state's open primary, and Obama's lead with that group is 63% to 25%."

In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee, 53% to 32%.

Wisconsin's primaries will be held on February 19.

[hogwyld]

1. I am still paranoid enough

to think Hillary can pull this one out.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

8. It all depends on how easy it is for indies to vote there.

Here in AZ, where Clinton won by 10 points, you had to reregister a month prior to the primary. A lot of independent voters didn't realize that, despite it being announced all over the place. Tens of thousands of them showed up to vote on Feb. 5 and were chagrined to learn that they couldn't. That has never happened here before so you can guess who most of them wanted to vote for. I don't know how they do it in WI, but I hope there are no confusing ballots or instructions like in CA. It's estimated that 50000 independent votes were disqualified there.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

13. Same Day Registration...

Just to be on the safe side, bring your driver's license or a utility bill to confirm your residency. I don't know if these are required (I don't think they are), but it never hurts to come prepared.

[democrattotheend]

10. Me too

PPP has not been so reliable.

[Renew Deal]

14. I agree.

It's in her favor.

[NJSecularist]

19. Don't be paranoid

Hillary isn't even spending the full week in Wisconsin. I believe she is in Texas today and tommorrow and will be in Ohio Thursday and Friday. That tells you all you need to know about what she thinks of her chances in Wisconsin.

[hogwyld]

32. Or maybe her internal polling

shows her ahead enough that she doesn't need to devote that much time to WI. Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me. :)

[NJSecularist]

34. That's ridiculous

If she felt confident she was going to win Wisconsin, she'd be there right now. Even if she had a 10 point lead.

She doesn't feel very confident in her chances in Wisconsin.... she is sending her surrogates and family there instead. That tells you that he doesn't think much of her chancesin her state.

[hogwyld]

38. I will NEVER count out the Clinton polical machine

I remember when Bill was dead toast in '92 and came back to win the whole enchilada. They are masters of lowering expectations only to be comeback kids. Only when the last shovelfull of earth is thrown on, will I count out Hillary.

[Bullet1987]

40. I agree...

but the Clintons were very unknown back then. Everyone knows who they are now...so the probability of some miraculous comeback is not very high for Hillary Clinton.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[underpants]

2. OABAMA/McCAIN IN '08!!!!!

:bounce:

[Tesha]

42. McCain wins, of course. But he wins against Clinton too.

Democrats kicked to the curb anyone who could have
defeated McCain.

Tesha

[Kittycat]

3. Not holding my breath, but I am hoping

That neighboring states performance influence some.

[bellasgrams]

24. The news said she isn't expected to win until Mar 5, when OH &

TX vote

[LisaM]

4. What is Obama going to owe these aisle crossers and independents?

Is he going to stand firm holding up the values of the Democratic party?

I find this befuddling, because the chant since we took Congress and the Senate in 2006 is that the Democrats need to grow a spine and stand up against the Republicans. Yet, here are people turning out in droves to DO the exact opposite, choosing a candidate who wants to cross the aisle and compromise.

Am I the only one who sees this disconnect?

[LostinVA]

6. No, I see it, too -- and I don't like it at all

[bellasgrams]

18. They can cross over in IN too. I hope they change that. I've heard

co-workers talk about crossing over to vote for a dem in the primary

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

29. I find this disheartening...

We on the left have been saying for years that our agenda is what benefits the overwhelming majority of Americans -- including those rural and blue collar voters who go Republican on things like gun control. We've been saying for years that we need to figure out how to persuade these folks that a progressive agenda is in their best interest, and that the conservatives are selling them out completely.

Now that we have a candidate who is getting that message across, people are accusing him of selling out to conservative interests. There is no "disconnect" with a liberal candidate who appeals to a broad portion of the electorate. It's as though liberals find it hard to believe that blue-collar moderate voters would EVER vote for our candidate. They voted for FDR, didn't they?

These voters have just had an eight-year, front-row seat at what happens when conservatives are allowed to run this country. War. Recession. Corporate Crime. These voters are waking up to the fact that the Republican Party never once had their interests at heart, and now they're looking to someone else. Honestly, if Barak weren't in the campaign, I think Hillary would be doing just as well among these voters.

If we can keep our wits about us and not commit political murder-suicide, we should see a massive shift towards the Democrats in 2008.

[calico1]

39. We will do what we always do best:

Keep moving farther and farther to the right and then call it "winning."

:banghead:

[Occam Bandage]

7. He'll owe them a progressive, liberal Presidency. Listen to Obama speak--when he talks about

bipartisanship, he isnt' saying we need to sell out our core values. Rather, he's saying that liberal values are real American values, and that we need to start selling Republicans and Independents on our values. And he's doing a great job. He's got an extraordinarily liberal policy package (that differs from Clinton's only very slightly), and yet his support among independents is much higher than Clinton's.

[bellasgrams]

28. I try to listen to BO but when he starts his rah-rah talk it turns me

off. He doesn't talk about his healthcare not covering millions of people. He rarely talks policy. He is an 'inspirational speaker' but we need an experienced leader, which he is not

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

9. He promised each of them a free pony

Obama's platform is clearly laid out. His independent voters each have their own reasons for supporting him, but I suspect the reason many of them are independent is that they are disenchanted with "politics as usual" from both parties, and Obama directly addresses that. I don't see his popularity among indies dropping much in the GE, for that reason.

[MadBadger]

15. Nothing. He is preaching Unity, while still preaching a liberal message.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

16. He's going to give them health care and pull their kids out of Iraq.

:shrug:

[bellasgrams]

31. Hillary has the best healthcare, and she's going to start pulling

troops within 60 days.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

36. I disagree.

Also, Clinton's one of the people got us into this mess.

I've no reason to believe she's credible when she says she'll take some of them out.

[ginnyinWI]

45. she has to win the presidency first.

The Independents don't favor her and the Republicans hate her. She'll be a good get-out-the-vote issue for them. How can she win the presidency, even supposing she wins the nomination? In the latest poll, she loses to McCain-- while Obama wins.

Independents and Republicans will vote for him. And his policies are progressive. He's the best bet.

[stahbrett]

22. What did Reagan owe independents and "Reagan Democrats"? (eom)

[mkultra]

23. standing up to the rethugs on iraq

This is what was wanted and needed. Not voting for the IWR is what was wanted.

[dragonlady]

30. These are not the unprincipled GOP leaders

They are ordinary people who have been Republicans since that was not something to be ashamed of. The past few years have pushed them to the point where they are deserting their party for a candidate who offers them better days.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Cautious, but if Obama wins Wisconsin by that margin, Clinton will need to pack it up.

[jenmito]

26. Nah. She'll just dismiss it at "not representing the people" or otherwise not important.

She's shameless and will go down as a sore loser.

[bellasgrams]

35. She's not expecting to win untill March.

[Tesha]

44. Hopefully, she's only "penciled that in" to her Day-Timer; I think she might have to cancel. (NT)

[jenmito]

46. That's what she SAYS. But she has been campaigning HARD in Wisconsin, sending Chelsea

out there several times aleady while promising to be there Saturday, and Bill was probably there, too. "She's making a play for Wisconsin" as JUST reported by Andrea Mitchell.

[book_worm]

11. A week is an eternity in politics and polls are just snapshots. Obama supporters lets not get cocky!

and lets work hard to win WI in one week.

[MadBadger]

12. His lead will increase. He is just starting his Wisconsin campaign tonight.

[Moh96]

17. wow this is huge

GOBAMA

[Tropics_Dude83]

27. Hillary is running the Rudy strategy if she loses Wisconsin-n/t.

[MadBadger]

20. Big thing in this polls is that among those most concerned about Iraq, Obama's up 55-34

Big Anti-War crowd here.

[MadBadger]

21. Big thing in this polls is that among those most concerned about Iraq, Obama's up 55-34

Big Anti-War crowd here.

[Tropics_Dude83]

25. Yeah!

My calculus for a Clinton victory began with a win in Wisconsin. Since that doesn't appear too likely now (PPI nailed South Carolina so it's been good lately), I don't see why Ohio would be immune to the rest of the national tide towards Obama.

If Obama wins Wisconsin (something Jessie Jackson couldn't do so it would rule out the Obama is Jessie meme), he's very very close to the nomination.

[loveangelc]

33. w00t

[Bullet1987]

37. Obama is VERY strong in the Mid-West...

And has won every single neighboring Wisconsin state. It would seem kinda odd if he lost there. I think if he wins convincingly there...the nomination becomes a longshot for Clinton. That's a 10-0 sweep making an Ohio and Texas blowout for Clinton almost completely unlikely.

[Thrill]

43. More proof Hillary can't win the GE

Independents just don't like her

[Dogmudgeon]

47. Obama pwns. Hillary is doomed.

Minimum 20% blow-out.

Hillary will try one of her dirty tricks, like asking Democrats to come out to vote, but the good people of Wisconsin won't tolerate it.

--p!

[NoBorders]

48. This poll assumes a high turnout favoring Obama

So far, HRC has been winning a lot of high-turnout primaries, IIRC. I'm an Obama supporter saying, don't believe the polls!

[WillTheGoober]

49. Just heard an alert on MSNBC...

Hillary wants Barack to debate her in Wisconsin and has announced a large effort to turn that state back to Clinton country.

Exciting times. :)

Proud Dem,
W.