A look ahead: Two new SUSA Polls (OH and NC)

[mohc]

Ohio
Clinton: 56
Obama: 39

North Carolina
Obama: 50
Clinton: 40

Obama has more support among whites in NC than he does in OH. Will the firewall hold?

[jefferson_dem]

1. NC looks awesome. Plenty of Obama work to do in OH.

Watch that margin shrink, as Ohioans get to know the man.

[BringBigDogBack]

23. You got it

[MadBadger]

2. We will see. Im betting that the lead closes greatly in the next three weeks.

[MadBadger]

3. Dupe

[geek tragedy]

4. I like that Ohio poll actually.

It currently shows Clinton winning younger voters and very close amongst independents. Also, the 2:1 white voters number won't hold up, imo.

[Renew Deal]

8. He's losing 18-34 and whites 2-1?

I don't buy it.

[geek tragedy]

10. I think that's accurate NOW.

It certainly won't reflect the final voting.

[mohc]

18. As it sits now

If this poll is accurate then Clinton is set to net around 23 delegates. 21 days to go, plenty of time to chip away at that.

[Independent-Voter]

5. Why does Ohio consistently fuck up who they vote for?

That one state (helped)put Bush in the white house twice, and now they want to put Hillary on the Dem ticket. What the hell is wrong with that state?

[peace13]

9. Election stolen 2004.

Republican SOS and the * cabal in and out of here like a cuckoo clock at midnight days prior to the election. It is not the people of Ohio but corruption bleeding down from the top. Peace, Kim

[OzarkDem]

Talk to the Republicans about Bush

It wasn't the Dems who put him in the WH.

Welcome to DU :eyes:

[question everything]

22. And you claim that voters who prefer Hillary are "fucked up"

Why not look at the mirror to see who really is fucked up?

You should respect every single vote made by voters' free will and, hopefully not influenced by, oh, reasons of race or, worse, the booming Oprah voice? The "our time has come?"

[mohc]

6. Looking at all the crosstabs

Besides the obvious anomaly of Obama trailing among younger voters, the number that jumped out at me the most was the "economy" voters. These voters have broken for Clinton everywhere, but there just have not been enough to make a difference. This polls shows almost half of Ohio's voters as economy voters, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton. Obama will need to tailor his message somewhat to attract these voters.

[Independent-Voter]

13. Not all that surprised about Economy voters to be honest

Ohio is one of the few states in the nation with a net DECREASE in population over the last several years. People are leaving that hellhole in droves due to, among other things, the shitty economic outlook there.

[Leopolds Ghost]

38. So Ohioans are massively flocking to the family that created NAFTA that destroyed their jobs

Oops -- I mean "Ohioans with limited education" are Clinton's base.

What Ohioans need is education about the root cause of their situation --
NOT "retraining".

Reply if you agree.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

7. We got to work on Ohio

[mod mom]

33. HUGE turnouts for Obama Organizing Meetings including over 700 in Cincinnati (south!)

and more than that in Columbus. I wouldn't trust the polls. It's not like they have been right before!

[VolcanoJen]

11. Those Ohio numbers are going to tighten.

People in Ohio aren't really tuned in to the race yet. So many people I talk to are undecided, or tell me they've made a decision, but that they aren't firm.

I think Clinton's lead in Ohio is largely due to her fame and recognition, and that once Obama visits the state and puts ads up (he already has one that I've seen a dozen times), that gap will begin to close.

And one thing people shouldn't discount about Ohio... this state is like one big college town. And a cursory look at the Spring Break schedule shows all major universities (except Univ. of Toledo!) in session on March 4th. 60,000 students at Ohio State. 35,000 at the University of Cincinnati. 29,000 at Ohio University (my alma mater! :-)) and Kent State. And on and on... I imagine Obama's ground operation will be hitting campuses pretty hard in the next week.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Way ahead.

3+ weeks.

What's happening today?

[On the Road]

14. Is Ohio an Open or Closed Primary?

That seems to be making a difference this year.

[peace13]

16. In Ohio you can pick your ballot at the polls. n/t

[Perky]

21. Very percpetive question

If McCain has it locked up at that point and independents do not like McCain they may vote in larger numbers for Obama


Likewise if McCain has it locked up. Republicans could vote for or against Hillary solely to push her off the cliff so she does not have a chance or booster her so as to avoid Obama in the fall.


I have no idea how that shakes out...I am just saying. Hillary probably need the GOP race to be locked by that point.

[CreekDog]

15. Why can't we just say Ohio doesn't count?

:shrug:

[Leopolds Ghost]

39. Because it is a "big state" -- unlike Maryland and Virginia and NC n/t

[tekisui]

17. NC is Obama Country!!

Bring that Primary on down to us!

[K Gardner]

24. When is the NC Primary again? I can't keep up !

[Marie26]

27. May 6

It's a looong way off.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

19. "Will the firewall hold?"

I suggest if she wins it it'll be a squeaker.

Obama's got more money and more momentum. A month ago he was only polling 19%.

[Perky]

20. Clinton really needs that 56% to hold in Ohio to climb back into the race.

The reason is that once Obama hits 40% they start splitting the delegate allocated to a district.

Obama is going to have a lead approaching 100 delgates going into Ohio so it is critical to Clinton that she makes up ground...not simply win. If she wins 54% to 46% it is a psychological boost for PA but it may be too late.

[Bullet1987]

25. Obama is running adds in Fayetteville NC where I live...

[Alhena]

40. Already ads in NC? Dang- seems like Obama's bankroll is unlimited.

[XemaSab]

41. The only ad I saw or heard for Obama in California

was a radio ad on teh hip-hop station in San Jose.

Awesome. :D

[NJSecularist]

26. Clinton wins the white vote 62-32%?

It just won't happen. It's impossible. Obama is leading everywhere among white men, and according to his poll he is losing white men by a large majority.

That'll change.

[TexasObserver]

28. This Ohio poll is not reliable. It's 51-47 Clinton on votes already cast.

Those early votes will be more leaning to Clinton than Obama, as is indicated in the 51-47 split. It's absurd to suggest the likely voters will split drastically in favor of Clinton, simply not a legitimate proposition.

[Mother Of Four]

29. This is a nonviable poll.

Directly from your page

SNIP!

Filtering / Timing: 2,000 state of Ohio adults were interviewed 02/10/08 and 02/11/08. Of them, 1,812 were registered to vote. Of them, 720 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before the 03/04/08 primary. All interviews were completed after results in Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska were known. Half of interviews were completed before results in Maine were known, half after. All interviews completed before results of Virginia, District of Columbia and Maryland primaries were known.

END SNIP!

Emphasis mine

[mohc]

30. Of course it was completed before results were known

I posted this 2 days ago while the polls were still open....which is why it was labeled a "look ahead".

[Mother Of Four]

32. Oooooops....

I didn't see the date of your post if thats the case.

My bad. :spank:

(Edited to add: Nyquil should have a warning label that states "Do not post under the influence of this medication" ) :p

[mohc]

34. Nyquil at this time of day?

I would not be able to keep my eyes open to read the screen. But to the "sentiment" of your original post, there is lots of time for things to change in both of these races, especially NC. The only thing we can really read from it now is how things lie now, and more importantly the trend lines. The race seems to be tightening, and one would expect that to continue, but who knows how much.

[Mother Of Four]

35. I agree with the trend lines totally...

I'm an NC transplant, and whats really interesting here is there used to be very strong latino support for the Clintons. Lately though thats changed and not sure why, you hear more talking about Obama and they seem a little miffed at Clinton for some reason.

I have a raging case of the flu, even with a full dose of Nyquil it's not knocking the symptoms down enough to sleep. If it doesn't get better, I'll probably have to go to the doc.

[BigDDem]

31. Why do people in Ohio hate change?

[AtomicKitten]

36. Hillary's firewall goes poof.

"Hold."

[Hill_YesWeWill]

37. I've noticed, as a former clinton supporter, Obama does better when he's down, time to get to work

senator! Obama knows when the people get a chnce to meet him and hear him they vote for him, so look to see him campaigning and rallying across Ohio and Texas!

Clinton knows that when she gets publicity on TV and is seen on debates her numbers go up, so look to see Clinton calling for daily, or even twice daily debates. And, if Obama has prior commitments it;s possible she could start claiming Obama is "scared".