If Ohio And Texas Are Hillary's Firewall States...

[THUNDER HANDS]

I guess that means if she loses any one of those, then she'll drop out afterwards, right?

I mean, accoridng to her, they're the only states that count.

So it would stand to reason that she would drop out if she falls flat on her face in either Texas or Ohio.

I doubt she'll do it though.

In a few months we'll be hearing from her how important Puerto Rico is, I think.

[liberalnurse]

1. Not exactly..........

The Super Delegates will fall in line.

[sniffa]

4. True

Right behind Obama.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. after Texas and Ohio?

if the states split, I doubt the superdelegates will all run en masse towards him.

Maybe after Pennsylvania.

[sniffa]

12. I don't think they'll split

I think Obama will actually win Texas (or at the very least, lose by 2% and win the delegate count). I have no idea about Ohio, as I haven't really looked at it yet.

The only thing I know about Ohio off hand is that their voting process is in shambles, and Clinton leads in some poll there by double digits.

[Coexist]

9. honestly, politicians are famous for flocking to the popular standard

I don't see them staging a coup if Obama is far enough ahead.

They're not stupid, they will have lots of people on the bottom of the ticket in the fall and will not risk having a % of their voters stay home.

[TeamJordan23]

2. I think she will have pressure to drop out if she loses either. nm

[LSparkle]

3. She may have an edge in Texas but ... Ohio?

I don't understand why people think she has a good chance there. NAFTA has impacted the economy -- all Obama has to do is remind people who brought us that ...

[sniffa]

8. Her edge in Texas isn't as great as it's made out to be

- Lack of organization
- Lack of money
- Lack of ground game
- The huge numbers of hybrid primaries, where you have to vote in the primary, and then return at night with your voting receipt to participate in the caucus; only the caucus results count.

That's just Texas based and not including the momentum disadvantage she'll have, and most likely, the fund raising disadvantage that will most likely balloon by then.

[bigtree]

29. poll was posted here today

New SurveyUSA Ohio Poll - 56 Clinton, 39 Obama

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e76b808

[Occam Bandage]

6. 2008 doesn't count. 2012 is her firewall.

[XemaSab]

13. Too many blacks, activists, college kids, latte liberals, and republicans voting this time....

A white woman named "Clinton" don't stand a chance. :P

[XemaSab]

14. dupe

[anigbrowl]

24. Bwahahahahaha! eom

[hogwyld]

7. Hillary will win the nomination! It's in the bag

I'm sure she and Bill have all of the SD's in line, ready to pledge to her upon command.

[totodeinhere]

11. Obama may well win enough pledged delegates to make the super delegates irrelevant.

He just might emerge with enough delegates after the Potomac primaries plus Wisconsin and Hawaii next week to do just that.

[totodeinhere]

10. Due to proportional delegate allocation,

Clinton will not only have to win Texas and Ohio, she will have to win by a large enough margin to rack up some delegates. Whereas all Obama will have to do is keep it relatively close. He won't have to win outright, although with all of the momentum he is picking up with these current primary and caucus wins, he just might pull it out in one or both of those states. Advantage: Obama.

[TexasObserver]

15. Hillary is trying to rally her supporters to do whatever it takes to swing Texas and Ohio

By taking the approach she is taking, her supporters know that if she loses either Texas or Ohio, she is done for. Therefore, the theory runs, they will pull out all the stops, will give fabulously to her campaign (allowing her to repay herself $5 million with their money), and work in those states for her.

Of course, it's a Queen's gambit, and if it fails, she's finished.

[loveangelc]

19. or, Obama supporters and some Republicans and Independents

may come out strong and vote for Obama...

[TexasObserver]

27. Oh, she's going to lose Texas, similar to Virginia. Don't know about Ohio.

[JeanGrey]

16. She'll never go willingly. Watch. It will be embarrassing.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. I wish everybody would stop with the dropping out shit

[OzarkDem]

20. Its a pretty threadbare talking point by now

[loveangelc]

18. I think its implied in that NY Times article that if she doesnt win those 2 big

she's going to be called on to drop out. they really don't want to drag this out until april.

[my3boyz]

26. She will not drop out! Hill and Bill don't give a crap about tearing the democratic

party apart if they think there is any chance that they could still win.

[Bonobo]

21. She will drop soon. Losses have a snowball effect. She appears too beaten up as some point.

[joshcryer]

22. Yes she has to win those states by at least 40%. Otherwise she's done.

This is why I say Obama has the nomination. She can't do it.

[quiller4]

23. We saw how well the firewall strategy worked for Rudy

I actually expect Obama to do almost as well in Ohio as he is doing today in Virginia. I expect he will pick up independents and moderate Republicans. He will do as well with white men in Ohio as he is doing in Virginia and as well or better with Blacks.

If Clinton loses Ohio by a substantial margin, super delegates will start to peal off and undecided super delegates will gravitate toward Obama.

Her campaign has to hold out hope to keep $$ flowing in to fund the campaign. They are placing hope in Ohio and Texas, the only remaining states where internal polls show them to be competitive.

[stahbrett]

25. Will the Clintons be desperate enough to try their own swiftboating? (eom)

[TexasObserver]

28. Notice how Hillary's firewalls are all turning out to be lumber yards, instead?