Chuck Todd: Obama already has 100+ pledged delegate lead

[blitzen]

not counting Maryland....He says it will be hard for her to catch up even if she wins TX, OH, PA

[thepurpose]

1. I heard that. And he said she will have to win Tx,Pa & Oh by really large margins to make it up.

[IDemo]

4. "62 to 63%, very difficult to do."

[thepurpose]

2. I heard that. And he said she will have to win Tx,Pa & Oh by really large margins to make it up.

[journalist3072]

3. If Chuck Todd says it...it must be true. eom

[blitzen]

6. hey, he's proven himself the best delegate number cruncher on the MSM

[Maribelle]

10. Todd and the rest of the hate-Hillary team on MSNBC, circa New Hampshire Eve

were calling for Hillary to resign.


I would not trust one of those slime buckets as far as I could throw the Vault at Fort Knox.

[Political Heretic]

5. He has the overall delegate lead -- edit: correction

By that I mean, even with Clinton's committed super delegates, he's still in the lead.

EDIT - I'm sorry, I got that wrong, and the OP got it wrong too. This is a POTENTIAL outcome of delegates won from tonight. It's not there yet.

[OzarkDem]

7. Super -delegates will decide

and hopefully restore some sanity to the process.

[Political Heretic]

8. Nope. You've missed the news, I guess.

Obama's delegate wins tonight are likely to put him over 100 ahead - that is more than the number of pledged super-delegates Clinton has. Tonight, its possible that his delegate lead will be large enough to nullify the committed super-delegates Clinton has, and if you think the non-committed superdelegates are going to bolt and go AGAINST the clear front-runner, you're nuts.

By the way, the will of the people is the restoration of sanity. Superdelegates are purely undemocratic and beneath the ideals of the party of the people.

[hogwyld]

9. With the Clinton machine

NEVER say never... just saying.

[Political Heretic]

19. I'm sorry - did I say never? I know its not over.

I'm saying that it doesn't look like superdelegates is going to decide. It looks like Texas, Ohio, and Penn. will decide. Which is as it should be I think.

[Maribelle]

18. There are 357 un-pledged super delegates left. Get your facts straight.

you obama supporters are going to make yourselves sick from all this spinning

it's truly sad

[Political Heretic]

20. I have my facts straight. I referenced the unpledged delegates in my post.

Quote: Tonight, its possible that his delegate lead will be large enough to nullify the committed super-delegates Clinton has, and if you think the non-committed superdelegates are going to bolt and go AGAINST the clear front-runner, you're nuts.

[Maribelle]

31. There are only c. 250 delegates up for grabs tonight. If Obama gets 65% and Hillary gets 35%

this will still be a horse race

quit spinning

[Maribelle]

33. So tonight will be the first night Obama is ahead, and you want to nullify Hillary's? Please.

your credibility matches the hate-Hillary club on MSNBC

[Political Heretic]

39. I'm saying a very simple, non-disputed fact:

Hang with me here, and remember who you're talking to - I've been exceptionally gracious to my friends supporting Senator Clinton. :grouphug:

1. Obama and Clinton are predicted to be awarded a certain range of delegates tonight - there's a range of what's possible.
2. If Obama ends up on the high end of the range, it will put him roughly 100+ ahead in pledged delagtes.
3. This 100+ lead is enough so that, if the super delegates committed to Clinton as of today are factored in, it is still not enough to overtake that gap.

None of those facts are in dispute. But of course, you would be right to point out that those facts alone aren't enough.

-- I argue - in my opinion - that it is absurd to think that superdelegates who haven't yet decided on a candidate would somehow break against the candidate who took a clear lead in pledged delegates.

-- Thus, also in my opinion, this means that the race is now less likely to be "decided" by superdelegates (by that I mean, less likely to be too close to call in pledged delegates) and more likely to be decided through Texas, Ohio and Penn. I think this is a very good thing for the people and the party, no matter which candidate receives the nomination.

Can you stop calling me names now? Nothing I'm saying is particularly controversial.

[TwilightGardener]

11. "Restore some sanity to the process"--what, voters choosing a nominee is insanity now?

[OzarkDem]

13. Yes, its insanity

they're being duped by the GOP and the news media into nominating a candidate who won't be allowed to win the GE.

[TwilightGardener]

15. I've officially heard it all now. You're over the cliff of rational thought.

[tammywammy]

16. Um, wow

:wow: I can't believe you said that. I think you might need to step away from the computer for a while.

[Political Heretic]

So the solution is nullify the will of the people and have a priviledged few choose?

I'm sorry, but that's not a constitutional democracy.

In a democracy, sometimes the person you don't want wins. That's the way it goes.

I know this, since I've never had the candidate I wanted in my lifetime.

[cottonseed]

26. Because the people that gave us Kerry know who will win a GE?

C'mon, they dumped Dean and Edwards last election, it's obvious their opinion isn't worth a warm cup of spit.

[OzarkDem]

37. Its better than letting the GOP and news media choose our candidate

And it was the news media who pushed Dean and Edwards out the last time, not our party leaders. Same thing is happening again, only this time we're worse off than we were with Kerry.

Were not left with any good choices here.

[Colobo]

41. You are an arrogant punk.

You can't even respect your fellow Dems who think differently.

[southern_dem]

14. Decide to start a civil war?

If the Supers go against the winner of the delegate count and perhaps even the popular vote, there will be a civil war in the party. Sure, it's fine within the rules but you can say hi to President McCain if it happens.

[Renew Deal]

21. Super Delegates won't matter if it stays like this.

Obama is leading WITH super delegates.

[gmudem]

24. You actually WANT super-delegates to decide the race?

Gross. The nominee should be decided by actual voters, not people who only exist to stop the actual voters from nominating a candidate the establishment doesn't like.

[JVS]

34. If anything superdelegates are going to put an end to Hillary's campaign.

[awaysidetraveler]

36. Exactly!

[JVS]

38. I think if she gets blown out in Wisconsin, they're just going to break it down to her and say...

"Look, you constantly blow 10 point leads over 2 week periods to get beaten by over 20%, and unless you get every fucking voter in OH, NY, and TX, you haven't a chance in hell. So quit already!"

[Barack_America]

12. Man, that has to be making some of Hillary's superdelegates really nervous...n/t

[Whisp]

17. cnn delegate count just now: 1170 Obama, 1168 Clinton.

gawd these delegate numbers never match. they flop about all over. and you say a 100 lead? projection?

[blitzen]

22. CNN is counting supers...Todd is just counting actually won pledged

[cottonseed]

23. Do these include MI and FL?

Not being a smart alec, but everytime I've looked at these numbers I want to know where the +/- is. Maybe a better way to put it, does Obama cover the spread even if Hillary's able to seat those delegates.

[blitzen]

27. pretty sure he's not counting those....

but every reasonable scenario that I've seen proposed would pretty much split those delegates 50-50

[cottonseed]

28. Thank you. nt

[my3boyz]

29. Chuck Todd said that even if they included Florida

he thinks Obama would still have enough to edge her out. He said Michigan is very unlikely since Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

[cottonseed]

43. Thanks for the reply.

nt

[Whisp]

32. unless I'm missing something, it's just one big fat number.

no breakdown bet supers and not.

but to me it sounds Misleading, the way they are doing it.

[cottonseed]

44. Yea, I don't like it much either.

There's some nuance on the numbers I'd like to see fleshed out. They report on the complications of it, but don't show it in their little graphics.

[goodhue]

25. yes, indeed

[TomClash]

30. That might mean it comes down to whether the MI and FL delegates are seated

[goodhue]

35. the super delegates wont let it get that far

They will break strong for Obama

[Political Heretic]

42. As much as I hate superdelegates, I can only hope that they think with the party in mind.

Doing anything that ends up with the people of the democratic party feeling disenfranchised is bad for all of us, no matter who we are supporting!

[jackson_dem]

40. He's wrong

There are still something like 1,000 pledged delegates on the table.

[goodhue]

45. Hillary has 940 pledged delegates to date, including the 21 she picked up tonight

She needs 2,025.
As you state there are roughly 1,000 pledged delegates on the table, and roughly 800 superdelegates--be kind and give her half (900), she would still be well short. She would need to take 2/3 of remaining pledged and 3/4 of superdelegates in order to get nomination--sorry its not going to happen.

[jackson_dem]

46. The same math applies to Obama

Neither will get a majority without superdelegates. The candidate who wins the most pledged delegates will become the nominee anyway.

[goodhue]

47. agreed

And Obama will win the most pledged. He presently leads pledged 1043 to 946.

[jackson_dem]

49. It's too early to predict. Let's see what happens on March 4

If Hillary doesn't win Ohio and Texas she will probably drop out so all of this could be moot.

[goodhue]

48. !

[goodhue]

50. .