Exit polls: Obama stealing Clinton's base

[babylonsister]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/12/exit-polls-obama-stealing-clintons-base/

Exit polls: Obama stealing Clinton's base
Posted: 08:39 PM ET

According to Virginia exit polls, Obama won almost 60 percent of the female Democratic vote.

(CNN) — Barack Obama did well with Virginia Democrats across both race and gender lines, and seems to be eating away at Hillary Clinton's backbone of support: women.

According to exit polls, Obama won nearly 60 percent of the female vote, a demographic that has carried Clinton to success in past primaries.

Clinton even fared worse among men in Virginia – more than two-thirds chose Obama.

Meanwhile, the Illinois senator scored his highest percentage of African-American support to date — winning close to 90 percent of that voting bloc. And the two evenly split the white vote as whole, even though in past primaries Clinton has held a slight edge among white voters.

The only demographic Clinton won in Virginia was among white women, who broke for her over Obama by 10 points. But that margin is significantly smaller than the national average on Super Tuesday. She beat Obama among white women by 25 points then, according to national exit polls.

[C_U_L8R]

1. Stealing?

I think he earned it.

[islandmkl]

4. You know: "Stealing": what the Big Boss thinks his employees are doing every payday...

when he hands out the paychecks

[babylonsister]

6. Must be ClintonNNspeak. nt

[OzarkDem]

9. I used to respect you

Now you're talking like a GOP'er. Sad.

[babylonsister]

11. Now I'm sad.

Not really. You only seem to respect people who agree with you. Sorry, not this time.

[OzarkDem]

12. No, I respect people who respect fellow Dems

instead of using right wing talking points and name calling.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OzarkDem]

26. I hope you find a better forum then, see you later

If calling out others for talking like a right winger to fellow Dems is thin ice to you, then you're in the wrong place.

[KAZ]

27. If you think Babylonsister talks like wing-nuts,

then you're nuts. The "move on" was directed at you, and I didn't mean leave. Just give it up.

[OzarkDem]

28. Guess what?

I don't care what you think.

[babylonsister]

56. I rest my case; you only care about people when they agree with you.

Here, munch on these:

[Endangered Specie]

24. Steal vs Earn... didnt they do the same thing with Looters vs Salvagers?

[JVS]

46. winning, not stealing

[XemaSab]

2. ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!

:D

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Yup all your base are belong to the Obama Cult

We're going to use them to make kool-aid,

[boricua79]

57. did you know Soylent Green was made of people NT

[CatnHat]

41. DId you ever stop and think

there are millions of democrats in this country who will not vote for Obama; and independents will come in droves for McCain. It's one thing to win over some democrats, but its a whole new ball game with the republicans. In the end, if your candidate is the nominee, you're arrogance just might bite you in the ass. Don't be so sure you have the democratic base; the party is divided. Simple as that.

[JVS]

47. lol

[SKKY]

48. FUCKER!

You beat me to it! :)

[boricua79]

hah! Love it! NT

[HeraldSquare212]

3. I thought I saw he was leading among older voters.

Pennsylvania was one of her big hopes, in part because it has a large elderly population. If he's broken through on that demographic, she's got to be worried.

[TheWraith]

5. He's winning women, latinos, working class, and seniors. Along with his existing voter groups...

... I believe that that makes "everybody."

Also, CNN finally just admitted that Obama passed her in the delegate count. Damn, they've been slower than hell this season.

[CatnHat]

42. Women, Latinos working Class and Seniors

You have got to be kidding. I didn't know the Potomac states had a large Latino populations. Your post is beyond belief. Just look at California, Florida, did your candidate win those strongholds?

Working class, kidding again, right. Clinton and Edwards have support of the two largest Unions in this country.

Seniors, now this claim is just off the wall. Seniors are worried about Medicare and Health care, and Clinton/Edwards have the best health care around.

Political analysts projected your candidate to win the Potomac states weeks ago, so what.

I'll just jot your post down to pure arrogance.

[H2O Man]

7. He is uniting us.

And it is a good thing.

[babylonsister]

10. This is pretty exciting, I think. I wish

there was less negativity around here. x(

[H2O Man]

14. This is hard

for many people. Change is not easy, even when it is change for the good. So we can expect it will be kind of rough around here for a while. But that's okay. It will be better soon.

[kennetha]

13. Not Really

It's just the demographic composition of the electorate. Look at this. Clinton did poorly among White Men, Black Men and Black Women. Was strong among White women. There were hardly any hispanics in the electorate. I think this shows that the same dynamic is basically in place here as elsewhere, but what tells the tale is demography. Where blacks are less of a % of the electorate, Obama and Hillary are much more evenly matched. If they basically tie among whites (which they did) and she wins hispanics (she didn't here but the numbers are so small it's probably not much of a reliable indicator) and he wins blacks, then the total numbers look different.


Vote by Sex and Race
Clinton
Obama

White Men
(27%)
42%
56%

White Women
(35%)
54%
45%

Black Men
(13%)
7%
93%

Black Women
(17%)
15%
85%

Latino Men
(2%)
N/A
N/A

Latino Women
(3%)
N/A
N/A

All Other Races
(3%)
N/A
N/A

[woolldog]

15. Yeah right.

"Where blacks are less of a % of the electorate, Obama and Hillary are much more evenly matched."

Yeah, like in Nebraska, Maine, and Washington. :eyes:

[kennetha]

18. Come on, can't we have a reasonable discussion

Those were all caucuses if I remember correctly. They too have a complete different demographic that works in Obama's favor. Do you deny that? Why?

[kennetha]

19. Come on, can't we have a reasonable discussion

Those were all caucuses if I remember correctly. They too have a complete different demographic that works in Obama's favor. Do you deny that? Why?

[woolldog]

25. I don't see any evidence of a completely different demographic

in caucus states, except that they tend to be more heavily white.

Maine was supposed to be Hillary country, white working class democrats. And she was trounced.

[kennetha]

29. Not the demographics of the state

The demographic of the electorate.

Caucuses don't necessarily reflect the demographics of the states. Not everybody shows up in equal proportion to their numbers to a caucus. How many single moms show up at caucuses, for example? I don't intend any of this to be controversial.

[woolldog]

33. evidence please?

Do you have any evidence to support that assertion? Have you ever been to a caucus?

Just from reading reports there were lots of kids who were at the caucuses with their parents in Washington and Maine.

[maine_raptor]

54. Hang on here a minute.

I know a bit about the Dem caucus up here in backwoods Maine: I was there.

Let me tell you about it.

First off, it was Sunday, snowing like crazy, and the room was packed.

Not with "kids", but adults..........working class mill workers, lumbermen, truck drivers, and yes, single moms, too.

A bit of History about this area: In the 1920's it was a hotbed of KKK activity. I can still remember going to people's homes when I was a kid and seeing a portrait of Grandpa and Grandma dressed up in robes on the mantle. The Town Library/Historical society has an exhibit of photos taken during that time of the Klan parades through the center of Town. Even now, the number of Blacks in this area can be counted on one hand and still have fingers left over as change.

That said, when the time came for folks to vote of the delegates to the convention, we just raised our hands,'cause had they had us Obama voters move to the other side of the room, we would have tipped the damn Town Hall over on it's side.

Aside from some phone calls (Hillary and Obama)folks received from out of the area phone banks, there was no "organized" activity up here. This just "happened".


Nope, there is something special going on this year and I can feel it way up here in Backwoods Maine.

[kennetha]

16. Where AA's are 30% of electorate

It's nearly impossible for Hilary to beat Obama. That's because if he get's 90% of the AA vote, he's got a guaranteed 27% head start. to get to 50% he only needs to take something like 1/3 of the remaining voters. Monolithic AA support gives Obama a HUGE nearly insurmountable advantage in primaries with substantial AA voters.

[KAZ]

23. It wasn't "Monolithic AA support" for Obama 4 months ago.

[kennetha]

32. What's your point?

Once Obama passed a certain threshold of believability, AA's coalesced around his candidacy. Don't think there is anything controversial about that claim. DO you disagree? Do you think a monolithic AA vote is NOT giving Obama an impregnable base?

[KAZ]

35. What's my point? The 30% existed 4 months ago, no? When

Hill was the presumptive winner. Seemed like a simple statement to me.

But I do understand your "threshold" statement. And I think you're right.

[TexasObserver]

17. K&R

[goodhue]

20. yes, indeed

its over folks

[Dob Bole]

22. ....because Black people steal?

This is New Orleans all over again.

He is FINDING her base, blast you!

[Medusa]

30. Let's see how the Clintonistas spin THESE wins

Because I'm sure they are hard at work on it this very minute.

[Thrill]

31. VA is going Blue baby

[PretzelWarrior]

34. umm...no. CONVINCING her base.

I cannot believe you are using the stereotype that a black man doesn't WORK for and EARN anything he gains but must STEAL it from a poor white woman likely to go on a crying jag at any moment.

Be dignified in defeat, Hillary supporters. and then vote for Obama in November.

[kennetha]

36. Exact Same Story in MD as in VA

Demographics is all. In MD AA's were an even larger share. Vote broke in about the same proportions across various ethnic groups. Clinton win's White Women, loses badly among AA men and Women, loses White men. Hardly any hispanics. In this electorate AA's were a whopping 37% of the electorate. No possible win for HIllary here. At 90% AA support, and 37% of electorate being AA, Obama starts out with a guaranteed 33% of the vote. To get to just 50% he again only needs around 1/3 of the remaining electorate. You can see why Hillary wants to make her last stand where there are more hispanics and fewer AA's and more downscale whites.

Vote by Sex and Race
Clinton
Obama
Uncommitted

White Men
(20%)
44%
54%
1%

White Women
(34%)
55%
42%
3%

Black Men
(15%)
9%
89%
2%

Black Women
(22%)
11%
88%
1%

Latino Men
(2%)
N/A
N/A
N/A

Latino Women
(3%)
N/A
N/A
N/A

All Other Races
(5%)
46%
50%
4%

[Laurab]

37. Right - if it weren't for all those damned PEOPLE

doing the voting, things would have been different - Who let all these different demographics live in every state, anyway?

[kennetha]

39. That's sarcasm, right?

So, you don't think the demographics of a potential electorate is a good indicator of how the vote will divide between Barack and Hillary? Is that what you're trying to suggest?

[mod mom]

38. As a white woman from Ohio (supposedly HRC base) I feel confident that OBAMA will win!

I think there are going to be a few folks surprised by Ohio, but fear not, Hillary still has her senate seat and can continue her fight for the good state of New York.

[kennetha]

40. Hillary doesn't win ALL white women, just most.

if she wins most white women in Ohio and if she wins a large share of working class white males, she has a chance to replicate the showing she had in Mass or NJ or Mich

[babylonsister]

44. Not anymore...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/us/politics/13assess.html?ref=todayspaper

snip//

And his strength on Tuesday sliced across nearly every major demographic line, with one element standing out: in Virginia and Maryland, according to surveys of voters leaving the polls, he beat Mrs. Clinton among women.

[kennetha]

45. Uh "women" isn't the same as "white women"

Clinton beat Obama among white women. His overwhelming support among black women, helped him carry women.

[babylonsister]

50. The article doesn't mention what color they are; you're suggesting

white women won't vote for Obama? Here's a newsflash; I'm a 52 year old white woman, and I'm voting for him.

[kennetha]

51. Gosh, that's an astounding inference

I didn't say or imply or suggest that no white woman would vote for Obama. How did you get that?

White women went for Clinton something like 54-45 in VA and 55 42 in MD. On the other hand, AA women went for Obama 88 -11 in VA and 85-15 in MD.

Add black women and white women together and Obama carries women.

[Pryderi]

52. Obama cuts Hillary's white women vote lead in half.

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/0-1&fp=47b2a1f51a483859&ei=n-yyR--ABoXaygSPn_nEDQ&url=http%3A//ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5giZDjUrVk9p4HpVouqLhFbdtXTYAD8UP4NTG0&cid=1130365590

Clinton was leading among white women, the heart of her electoral strength, but only by about 10 percentage points, according to the exit surveys, conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks. Obama countered that by enjoying about the same advantage with white men.

Clinton has usually run up margins of 20 points or more over Obama with white women in this year's state presidential contests. Overall, the two had previously split white males evenly, according to data from exit polls from 19 states that have held competitive Democratic primaries this year.

[kennetha]

58. right

But you could think that's because MD and VA white men and white women skew less "downscale" ( I hate that word) than white men and white women in other primary states. So it could be that there are just more "latte liberals" in the area and fewer working class whites. DOn't know if that's right or wrong. IF I were Hillary, that's what I'd want to believe. I.e that even the whites in the area were the wrong sort of whites for my campaign.

[TexasObserver]

43. Yes, one by one, Obama is taking away Hillary's advantage in some demographics.

He's taken away her early advantages among white men, some blacks, Hispanics, and increased his lead among blacks. He's broken her hold on Catholics. He's split her Hispanics between young and old.

He's winning now in 80% of the demographics or more.

[Pryderi]

49. Hillith Fair...has Obama won the white female vote?

[boricua79]

59. white women...black men...you know how it is, dawg...

:)

[boricua79]

53. you know what they say...once you go black

sorry Hillary...there's just no competing with a black man with style...

Shaft....SHUT YOUR MOUTH!

[mrgorth]

55. Those must be

those mysoginistic women I keep hearing about. Self haters or whatever.

[Scurrilous]

60. K & R

:thumbsup: