I WANT to be WRONG, but I also wonder what DU will be like next year if I'm not.

[karlrschneider]

It is my strong opinion which I do believe I am allowed to have and express that Hillary has little chance of winning
in the general election and that Barack has virtually -no- chance of being elected. This is NOT something I wish for but it's what I see as a probability. Even as dedicated as DUers are to a Democratic victory, there isn't anything resembling a consensus on our own future nominee - I can't see how we being on the fringes of the Democratic party and even further out from the electorate in general, can manage to eke out a win. I just don't see John and Jane 'Murkin voting for an African American man or for a woman in the numbers necessary.

If Al Gore and John Kerry couldn't mobilize America to the point where the Republican cheating was rendered impotent, it seems to me that Clinton or Obama will have a hundred times more difficulty doing it.

You guys in safe blue places don't hear what we do in flyover country - I know several lifelong Democrats who
will only admit very privately and sometimes only after a few drinks how they really feel.

The "unthinkable" is actually very possible and I wonder how we all would react if McCain ends up "winning". Really the only reason I'm asking this is because I'm just pissed we couldn't get Al Gore to run or keep John Edwards in.

[Coexist]

1. sorry, Debbie Downer

but this gal in a red county in a red state has Republican friends who really like Barack Obama.

Wah... wah... waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

[karlrschneider]

6. Land O Lakes? I lived just south of there for 17 years

Northwest Tampa...still have a lot of friends there, some of them are the ones I was talking about. (Lutz too)
:shrug:

[Coexist]

11. thats not what I hear - and 97% of my friends /neighbors/acquaintances are R

I joke that I am the token liberal. THEY contacted me with their ephiphany. One, who has never donated before, even to Bush, sent Obama $$.

[karlrschneider]

17. Well that's great...we have nothing to worry about then, it's in the bag!

:D

[Coexist]

21. hardly - but I have been going back and forth with one

about forming a R.I.D. Coalition for Obama (Republican, Indys, Dems).

Having some fun fundraisers. And I will work as hard as I need to, to help out.

And I won't let them change their minds - they really, really hate McCain. I have been working the failed economy and the $$ we send to Iraq that could be helping us out. They like it.

[karlrschneider]

34. I probably better not name names but some of my (kinda former) friends

moved up to LoL from Town 'n country to "get away from the blacks and Cubans" as they told me. Hey, I'm just reporting what I hear, ya know?

I'm in Oklahoma now for various reasons and I hear some scary stuff...from the Democrats even.

[Coexist]

45. oh dear, its been a while, huh.

LOL is the new Westchase. Cookie cutter heaven. Starbucks. The 3rd largest Publix in Florida. New high school, middle school and elementary schoool, and still portables. A gourmet deli where you can purchase aged balsmic vinegar by the ounce. Two football leagues, expanded rec center, library doubled in size.

It has become surburban, still the largest nudist area in the U.S. (Caliente is the newest one, HUGE and upscale! believe it or not), single family homes now start in the 250s.

Very different world. The FFA is gasping for life. There isn't one in the new high school. I-75 exit right on SR54, except SR54 is now SR52. New Tampa has grown so far north, it is attached to Wesley Chapel. The Veteran's Expressway (now the Suncoast) no longer stops at Dale Mabry - it extends way far north.

Your friends must be the remains of the old guard. The few ranchers I know no longer have working ranches. They sold their land to developers and are quite wealthy (although they still go to Beef's to watch the Bucs.)

[karlrschneider]

51. Yeah, a while. I rarely get back to Tampa but we visit my partner's mom in Ft. Myers

regularly...same situation there - she is sitting on a 140 acre orange grove that the developers are salivating over.
I guess it will be condos and convenience stores in a few years. No offense but I do not miss Florida. :D

[AX10]

2. I know...

of many Repubs who are going to vote for McCain regardless of whom the Democrats nominate.
They want a Repub in the Whitehouse.
I live in CT.

[demokatgurrl]

102. Wes Clark! Why didn't Clinton have him campaign

for her? I think he'd be a great VP if she were to win. He's a big supporter but somewhat in the background.:(

[Horse with no Name]

3. Good post karl.

I, too, live in one of these areas. While many here pretend that racism and sexism doesn't exist--and I honestly believe on DU it is a rarity except for invasions of trolls--it exists in places like where you and I live.
I HATE saying that ONLY a white male can win--and it is not sexist and it is not racist--it is just true.
The real world doesn't have moderators that lock their threads when they overstep their bounds.

[babylonsister]

19. So if racism is so prevalent, why does Obama keep winning, in areas

considered unwinnable by a black man? Maybe we have moved passed it, or at least a majority of us have? Wouldn't that be nice? :shrug:

[karlrschneider]

22. He is not running against Republicans. I don't understand why that's so hard for DUers to see.

:eyes:

[Barack_America]

30. Psst. Take a look at Virginia...

Their primaries were completely open and, yes, Obama received almost 50% of the white vote...and yes, many Republicans voted for him there...and, finally, yes, he received more votes there than McCain.

[MagsDem]

Duh -- a fraction of who will turn out in the general

How many times do we have to get our asses whupped in a presidential election before you people get it? It's not rocket science.

[Omega3]

68. Psst, that's because McCain has got the nomination, locked up for sure,

so they can go and screw up the Dem side of things in an *open* primary, you know, just like SC.

That's great he received more votes than McCain in an open primary in a RED state. Fabulous, pray tell how does this help in the GE?????????

[AX10]

75. That is why we see double the...

votes for Dems and only half for the GOP.
The Repubs are coming to the Dem side and F---ing with the Democratic primary.

[karlrschneider]

81. And if you poke around the wingnut sites you can see they do it openly and BRAG about it!

:eyes:

They're peeing on our feet and WE are the ones calling it rain! :eyes:

[MagsDem]

33. One thing our base DOES NOT possess....

is simple common sense.

[Raydawg1234]

69. So what, look at the voter turnout we have been having, Obama can win because he brings out the

vote

[Catherine Vincent]

26. You have to remember these are mostly Democrats voting.

Not republicans.

[Horse with no Name]

38. Of course it would be nice. All I know is what I hear in my area

I have heard Democrats say VILE sexist and racist things about both candidates.
I've moved past, you've moved past...but quite a few in this country have not and what is the use of spouting niceties here in a rose colored echo chamber? Why can't we just address things that could possibly be roadblocks to the nomination and do some preventative maintenance/damage control before the shit hits the fan during the election cycle?
We are talking about primaries and caucuses--mostly Democrats and I am sure there are some republicans who have crossed over just to wreak havoc on the process...and perhaps some that legitimately WILL vote for a Democrat.
I am looking PAST the primary process. I have seen the republican smear machine take down some pretty fine, upstanding candidates and I worry about those who refuse to see that racism/sexism WILL be a topic we will face. To think it won't will be a fatal flaw.

[TexasObserver]

4. Come in off the ledge, Hillary fan. It's going to be alright. Obama will win big in the general.

If you're really concerned about the down ballot races, you'd worry about Hillary at the top of the ticket. I know it's hard to accept that most people disagree with your pick, but you're the one out of step, not the 2/3 who reject Hillary.

[Bluebear]

8. I believe he was clear that he supported Edwards. Do you read anything, or just make fresh replies?

[TexasObserver]

35. I've been reading his posts for some time. My comment stands.

As for you, another Hillary fan I could care less about.

[karlrschneider]

10. I will obviously vote for our nominee but your non-response indicates you didn't read what I posted.

Care to try again?

[TexasObserver]

37. You've been wailing about Obama for weeks. Sell that line to someone else.

[karlrschneider]

46. I've said I will vote for him...what the fuck else do you want from me?

jeezus some people can't fucking take yes for an answer. What I was ASKING is what will be the ambiance of DU
IF (IF IF IF) we lose!

:eyes:

[MagsDem]

18. Take a look at the map you will see on GE night in Nov

[karlrschneider]

27. That is, to me, frighteningly and accurately prescient.

:scared:
Maybe except MS or AL. Maybe.

[TexasObserver]

39. Yes, that map is the reason we have to have Obama. Hillary can't win Kerry's states.

[MagsDem]

42. OMG, this is why we never win

She already won them, for gawd's sake. Really, could our base be more ignorant of basic electoral politics? I seriously doubt it.

[TexasObserver]

49. No, she hasn't already won them. Your comments are FALSE.

Facts are prejudiced against Hillary.

[natrat]

5. take your pick as to what is less likely-obama in 1600 or some type of martial law ?

i think 15% chance for some type of incresed repression
35% chance for obama

[blogslut]

7. Have you been paying attention to the Democratic turnout?

We're showing @ the polls 2:1. The repubs are staying home in droves. You really think they're going to show up come November in records numbers?

[karlrschneider]

14. Sure, the Dem turnout is great. Now imagine what the GOP will do given a chance to vote against

a black man or a woman. There are almost as many of them as there of us. That's not a very goddamn comforting thought but it happens to be the truth.

[blogslut]

23. I disagree

I had a convo with an old fellow today. Average older white man. Likes his religious music and his shotgun. I asked him if had picked a candidate. He sighed and said "I'm not sure. I guess I might vote for McCain, but I don't want to."


I'm telling ya, Karl, the Republicans are dejected, broken. They devoted so much to that fake cowboy and all they got was a lousy war and an economy in the dumper. They ain't gonna vote in any kind of record numbers.

[karlrschneider]

73. I know, but your old guy will vote for the guy he "might" vote for when push comes to shove.

Many voters can get motivated more by something they're against than by something they're for. Think about it.

[goodhue]

9. I might have thought you were right 5 weeks ago

But when I saw Obama campaign here in Minneapolis on February 2nd, I woke up to the fact that this is a real seismic cultural movement. He can and will win the general election IMHO.

[goodhue]

12. I should add that our turnout was over three times the record, a record set in 1968

[BootinUp]

13. You might be right, but

what choice do we have? I mean Edwards wasn't really any better.

Thats why I think we have to go with the candidate with the best resume. Hillary Clinton.

[karlrschneider]

29. My question actually has more to do with how DU will be changed IF my scenario

plays out. We can debate the various candidates on a different thread. And will, of course. :D

[Thrill]

15. McCain isn't the candidate Bush was. McCain is dull and boring

Say what you want about Bush. But he was good on the stump and was great with the one liners. Which made him competitive. McCain is Bob Dole number 2.

[robbedvoter]

28. "the candidate Bush was"? Witty and articulate?

[karlrschneider]

47. apparently somebody wanted to have a beer with the asshole

:eyes:

[robbedvoter]

95. Or, rather, MSGOP- that bastion of free speech told ya so

[TwilightGardener]

16. I live in Red Nebraska. I watched a roomful of rural white people, who

only see blacks when they take a big trip to Omaha or Lincoln, caucus for the black man over the white woman. I know Republicans here who respect him. There are pockets of racism around the country, but it's not as bad as you think.

[karlrschneider]

20. But genuine racism isn't the problem! It's more subtle than that...given the choice,

a huge percentage of white normally middle-roaders will just automatically reject the black guy maybe even subconsciously...they will invent a rationale to cover it up like "the other candidate was simply more qualified" (which is awfully difficult to argue with being subjective in the first place)

[TwilightGardener]

25. They didn't tonight.

[robbedvoter]

31. But they wanted to mess up our primary!

[MagsDem]

32. I swear, you la la landers are doing it to us yet again

Rewind 4 yrs, and we were all being told that YES! a MA liberal was going to win all these red states. And when it's over and we lose these same folks will blame it on the gays, the hispanics, Diebold.... anything but their own unelectable choices. And so will lather, rinse, repeat in another four years.

[karlrschneider]

56. Nothing wrong with a little healthy optimism but Pollyanna is pretty silly.

"This aircraft is computer controlled, there are no pilots. Sit back and relax, nothing can go wrong
go wrong
go wrong
go wrong
go wrong
go wrong.............

[Redstone]

24. I'd like very much for you to be wrong, as well.

And yes, (at least in my opinion), you are indeed allowed have, and to express your opinions.

I just really hope (as you do) that you're wrong with this one. God help us all if that warmongering, chipmunk-cheeked runt McCain gets elected. Jesus, he's fallen FAR from the guy he used to be, has't he? I admired him, once upon a time.

Redstone

[karlrschneider]

40. Thanks...I'm just thinking it might not be a terrible idea to contemplate how we will deal with

an outcome none of us want. Denying possibilities isn't usually very productive no matter how soporific it might be...

where's that "wry grin" thingy...?

:silly:

[Redstone]

43. I'd deal with a McCain win by sending my older son to Canada, so he won't get

sucked into McCain's Hundred-Year War Against Everyone.

Redstone

[AlCzervik]

36. Karl you are totally allowed to express your opinion no matter how wrong it is.

:hi:

[karlrschneider]

48. How munificient of you! My opinion is actually secondary to the question I was posing

which is how we will operate IF we lose. Maybe the (very real) possibility is too horrifying for some of us to contemplate.
:hi:

[AlCzervik]

50. Karl, i don't really want to think about that part yet because i think we know

how bad it will be no matter what color state we live in.

[karlrschneider]

52. I guess I'd just rather have the catastrophe I was anticipating more than the one

that blindsided me. Forewarned is forearmed?...isn't that the adage?
;-)

[AlCzervik]

53. we've had the opportunity to relocate overseas, if gawd forbid we should lose

in November we may just pull the trigger and go, hey 4 years abroad would look good on my daughters transcript.

[karlrschneider]

58. That's what I was looking for, some discussion about "what IF"...

(we have some property in another country too...)

[Straight Shooter]

41. Wouldn't it be funny if McCain got elected and turned back into a moderate?

I've seen McCain interviewed in the documentary, Why Do We Fight, and I tell you, he made a lot of sense and came across as very genuine and nonthreatening. I had to keep repeating to myself, "He is the GOP, he is the GOP, he is the GOP," so as not to like him.

Maybe McCain's the one who's going to cater to the right wing just to land in office, and then do a 180 and govern the way he's always wanted to. McCain's revenge, LOL. Kind of like bush turning his back on the abortion activists and gay-haters and doing what he wanted to do.

I'm waiting to see McCain's choice of running mate. If he chooses someone like Gordon Smith of Oregon, it's going to be more difficult to beat him. McCain's age is a big factor. As a potential president, Smith would be extremely attractive to Repubs and Indies, because he has a great reputation for working with Dems, as evidenced by his very congenial and effective relationship with fellow Senator Ron Wyden.

Freakiest election ever. I wouldn't bet on anything.

[karlrschneider]

59. Funny you mention that, I just dragged out "Why we Fight" this afternoon

for no particular reason, just happened to see it in a stack of DVDs. Your scenario is awfully titillating, I must say!
:D

[Omega3]

71. I agree totally, in fact b/c he's so old there's been talk of a one-term presidency

for him, all the more reason for him to be able to say bite me to the conservative once he's elected.

[AX10]

74. I believe that McCain's rightward shift...

is only to win the nomination.

McCain wants to be President and succeed. He will leave the right wing in the dust if it makes his campaign successful.

[sharp_stick]

44. The whining noise is deafening

Fuck me, we haven't even started the election yet and we've got people that seem ready to jump off the ledge.

[Bluzmann57]

57. You are correct.

Why don't we just wait and see what happens, and whenever our nominee is determined, go out and bust our asses to make sure he or she gets elected? See, I am out here in the real world as well, and I honestly believe that Americans are just plain fed up with everything that is happening. We can, and will elect a mixed race man or a woman for the next president of our country.

[karlrschneider]

63. I was asking how we would react to a loss. I understand some people aren't equipped to

handle that kind of 'what if' contemplation.

[karlrschneider]

60. Humph, the "election" is a lot closer to "over" than you seem to have noticed.

Or do you know something none of us do?

[David Zephyr]

54. Barack Obama will be elected.

And it will be the "flyover country" as you call it that elects him.

[karlrschneider]

I will buy you the biggest available jug of any legal liquid in the USA if that happens.

:D

[David Zephyr]

65. And I will proudly drink it with you between my tears of joy.

I just like you karlschneider.

I sat out all of 2007 not being able to choose a candidate.

I never believed that Barack could raise the money.

I never believed that Barack could put together a 50 state primary campaign.

I am so happy that he proved my cynicism wrong.

I feel like it is 1968 and I'm seeing Bobby all over again. And let me tell you, it's really hard to let go of the walls of protection I've built up around my heart for fear of being let down again.

But, I am letting them go...and I've never felt better in decades.

Yeah, I am beginning to believe.

In the meantime, here's to you: :toast:

[karlrschneider]

67. That works for me! Hell, I can't imagine anybody actually wanting to be president anyway.

There ain't enough money on the planet to get -me- to take that job! :silly:

[PurityOfEssence]

55. If that happens, we'll all be derided for not having worked hard enough.

Regardless of the polls that consistently showed Edwards having a sizeable advantage over McCain, regardless of his much more progressive policies, we will be lambasted and hectored because we didn't sell our houses, quit our jobs and work with every waking breath to get the nominee elected.

Lassitude seeps from the shadows, much as the frenzy roils in the overflow speaking engagements.

Fear not, though: many things can happen. Sadly, though, many things can be pinned on the Democrats in the ensuing nine months, too.

This is a faith-based campaign; "facts" and other things that are at discord with reality are a version of heresy. Personally, I think he has a chance, and depending on the turn of various events, perhaps even one to win with a large majority. It could also go the other way, although I don't really see a scenario without a terrorist strike causing a Republican landslide; a victory for them, on the other hand, is quite possible.

You're getting in the way of people's dreams, and some people are not particularly charitable when denied the "right" to dominate unconditionally.

[karlrschneider]

64. Well, if getting in the way of people's dreams was truly a stimulating adventure

I'd be having nonstop orgasms. But I truly admire your turn of a phrase "lassitude seeps from the shadows"...!! That's some damn fine prose. :D

But of course as you say there is literally no telling what weirdness might descend from above or below twixt now and November. It might be horrible but it likely will be interesting!

[David Zephyr]

78. No one can turn a phrase like, PurityOfEssence.

I like you both too much to see you fussing.

[karlrschneider]

83. Naw, we weren't fuc...........er, fussing.

:D

It's all good :toast:

[David Zephyr]

80. Temporary thread jack to say "hi" to PurityOfEssence

:hi:

[PurityOfEssence]

82. Hell of a horse race, isn't it?

I wish it didn't matter; it'd be a lot more fun to watch.

The last 5 weeks have been nonstop grueling work, so I've only been able to watch from the cheap seats, but it certainly has been good theatre.

Nice to hear from you, too.

[nitpicker]

97. And claims of tyros leading the children's crusade for a tyro

If Obama wins the nomination, his personal charisma exists, but I think he will have to win over more supporters by both repeatedly airing substantive and detailed policy points and by trying to make his rallies/outreach more smooth and polished. Absent that, we might have to go mutter things about McCain for however many years he would serve. And believe at least some of the claims about vote-fixing due to miscounting the results from the newfangled machines.

[PurityOfEssence]

99. Doubtest thou the Pied Piper?

Heavens forfend!

[adapa]

61. I share your pessimism, my one hope is a Clinton/Obama ticket

granted it doesn't deal with the sexism or racism issues but she can bring the base & he can bring the young people. I think the middles have a better chance of braking for Clinton because of her foreign policy experience. That experience will be critical in against McCain. Which is why I don't think a Obama/Clinton ticket would work.
I would hope she would entice Obama onto the ticket by promising him a stronger more specific role in her administration.

[karlrschneider]

62. Actually, I agree with that. The problem would/will be getting one of them to

take the #2 spot. ;-)

Think they'd flip a coin?

[adapa]

66. that is a problem. To get either one to accept the VP slot would require major concessions

I would hope the concessions would lay in the area(s) closest to the heart of the VP. For example if Obama won, what's to stop him from brining Hillary on as VP with the promise she'd be in charge of getting a hybrid version of their two health care plans in place.

Yes, I am a health care voter-

[mdmc]

70. odd,

I wouldn't mind too much if McCain won. However, I think BO or HRC will sweep him. Funny how different our minds are.

[karlrschneider]

76. And that, my friend is a whole OTHER discussion! (That's worthy of some ink itself)

A McCain presidency actually might NOT be all that awful for us Democrats.

[mdmc]

86. perhaps a Mac is back DU group is in order

:)

[karlrschneider]

89. I'm afraid it'd be impossible to get going without nonstop attacks from people who wouldn't

take the time to see what it was really about and the long-term evaluations. I'm not up to refereeing it anyhow.
;-)

[mdmc]

93. my friends...

:D

[Blue_Roses]

91. oh, good grief. Have you totally lost your mind?

McCain...President? I would rather stick a fork in my eye. Hearing him drone over and over now is enough to send us all into a deep sleep--and that's the good part about him.:crazy:

[karlrschneider]

94. You might save yourself some heartache in the future if you practice saying it:

"President McCain"...


:scared:

[yeswecan08]

72. Obama will win most white states in November!

[karlrschneider]

85. Great! Wonderful! Uh, what are "white states"?

:shrug:

[calico1]

103. States that get a lot of snow?

:shrug:

[workinclasszero]

77. Iowa.....Nebraska..very white states...

All won, and won BIG, by Obama!

GOBAMA!:applause:

[karlrschneider]

88. Yeah, those 5000 Democrats really went nuts there...

:eyes:

[Rowdyboy]

79. You're welcome to your opinion but I thank God I don't share it.....Must be

horribly depressing. I totally disagree with your assessment of the potential of Clinton and Obama-either would make a stronger nominee than either John Kerry or Al Gore.

Like you said, its my strong opinioon. Guess we'll see who is right next November.

[karlrschneider]

84. The thing is, I'm interested in how we might behave if it doesn't go our way.

It's a thought experiment...not everyone is equipped to participate. :D

[Rowdyboy]

92. Nice one too.....I simply missed the point

Personally, I'll do the same thing I did last time-retreat. No news, no politics, no internet for a year or two. Its how I survived Bush II and Reagan (though giving up the internet wasn't much of a problem in 1980). I couldn't handle the recriminations here-too much hate.

Still, your premise is the most depressing thing I've read all day. Hope like hell you're wrong.

[joshcryer]

87. Democratic Underground becomes Revolution Underground and we fight back.

In the fucking streets.

[karlrschneider]

90. I'm afraid the closest we'll get to that is fucking in the streets

and nobody left to pay the bail bondsmen. :evilgrin:

[Voltaire99]

96. Unthinkable? I expect McCain will win.

A racist, right wing, militaristic nation whose twisted fantasies are fed by apocalyptic preachers, TV and video games?

Right: that's the one that will elect the nice black man with the intellectual bearing.

It's a no-brainer, actually. America is as dumb and mean as a junkyard dog that's mistaken its own balls for leftover meatballs. From the slaughter of the Philippines to the massacres of Vietnam and the butchery of Iraq, you've seen her face. In nightmares like Nixon, Reagan and the Bushes, you've seen her heroes.

That said, I see no reason not to run Obama or to vote for him.

The party's tried running mumbling goodniks (Mondale), boring technocrats (Dukakis), and lifeless billionaire flipfloppers (Kerry), all in the hopes of reclaiming the all-important Bubba vote ceded to the Republicans after the civil rights acts in the 60s cost us the shit-for-brains-vote. Before that, it put forward brilliant men like Adlai Stevenson and George McGovern.

Didn't work. None of it.

So try the nice black man with the intellectual bearing. Running more dull white guys who sound like Republicans isn't going to get you anywhere, unless you've got one with both the sociopathic charm of a Bill Clinton or the aw-shucks honesty of a Carter (and then, you need a major AAA crackup like Nixon's to shoehorn him in).

So... Take. A. Chance. Really, there's nothing to lose that hasn't been lost many, many times over the past five decades. Corporations run this country and own it lock, stock and barrel, and they will continue to do for the foreseeable future. At best, we may just get someone who shows the tiniest glimmer of resistance to them and receptivity to us; there isn't any reason to disbelief Obama capable of being that person.

[Orsino]

98. Don't worry. You're wrong.

The turnout for the primaries assures me that Republicans simply aren't motivated to show up to vote for their turds, and even Hillary is not looking so evil to them after eight years of *. The Dem nominee will win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. We Will Soon Learn

I suspect either Obama or Hillary could hold the Kerry states..

Then we need to flip a state like VA, FL, or OH...

Or flip a combination of states like AZ, NM, and CO...

It seems doable... Both are polling well now...

If we lose at least we have a good excuse...

[GardeningGal]

101. Personally, I'm a lot more concerned about the voting machines

than people being unwilling to vote for a black man.