John King: if either candidate wins 55/45 in every state the rest of the way no one will get to 2k

[jackson_dem]

Without superdelegates. In the end the SD's will go with the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates, though. This does show that this isn't over by any means.

[tekisui]

1. Good thing Obama is winning 60% and 75%.

[XemaSab]

11. Every election since super tuesday--all 7--have been by 20+ points

n/t

[tandem5]

2. because FL and MI are out, but still part of the total needed number? nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. No

The target number includes deductions for FL and MI.

[tandem5]

4. yes, sorry I keep forgetting the super delegates are part of that 50 + 1 total nt

[TheWraith]

5. If the superdelegates follow the elected delegates, then Obama wins.

They're talking now that basically, the math says Clinton would have to get 60% of the vote in TX and OH, as well as tying in every other contest, just to pull even with Obama again. Not happening.

[jackson_dem]

6. They are forgetting Puerto Rico's 59 delegates

It is winner-take-all. That alone would erase most of Obama's current margin.

King just did a hypo and if Obama wins every state left 55/45 he will wind up with 1,784 delegates and Hillary with something in the 1,600s.

[TheWraith]

7. Puerto Rico is a caucus, and Obama won latinos tonight.

And how desperate do you have to be in order to be relying on Puerto Rico on June 7th to save your campaign? If that's her plan, she should drop out after March 4th and save herself and the party the embarassment.

[jackson_dem]

8. PR has a right to vote

What I am saying is the math still can work for Hillary.

[joshcryer]

9. There's the math can work and the math has a probablity of working.

I find those probablities quite low.

[jackson_dem]

10. Yes but she has a chance to take the lead in the states

Four big states remain: Texas (3), Pennsylvania (6), Ohio (7), and North Carolina (10).

[lancer78]

13. She might win Ohio and Texas

But if Obama keeps winning like has has been the those 2 states will be irrelevant.

[jackson_dem]

14. If she wins Ohio and Texas the momentum will swing back to her

[TheWraith]

15. No, it won't. She can't win by enough to matter, even assuming she CAN win.

Really, this sounds more and more like the dying stages of every campaign, where the believers build more and more unlikely scenarios that result in victory.

[liskddksil]

12. So the supers should go with whoever is winning to that point.

Thats the only way it can work without massive conflict that will destroy the party.