Wow! Look at Virginia.

[Laelth]

The Democratic nominee will win both DC and Maryland in the general. That should come as no surprise. What I find shocking about the Potomac primaries are the results in Virginia.

Look at these figures:

618,937 Obama
344,960 Clinton
963,897 D Total

242,439 McCain
197,476 Huckabee
21,900 Paul
16,985 Romney
478,800 R Total

Source: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080212

Sure, it was an open primary, but who honestly believes that many Republics crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary? The Democratic candidate for President hasn't won Virginia since 1964. Looks like that streak is about to be broken.

This could end up being a major landslide.

:dem:

-Laelth


More Laelth election analysis here: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/18

[Quixote1818]

1. Obama got more votes than all the Republicans combined.

:wow:

[tyne]

13. He not only got more votes...

he got 150,000 more votes than the repubs combined.

[Quixote1818]

24. Thats stunning! nt

[nomorewhopper]

35. Wonder how many dems come out to vote in OHIO?!!

Ohio and Pa will be very interesting to watch to see how many Dems come out to vote!

[saltpoint]

2. At our house, we're still partying over Jim Webb's victory over Cement-Head Allen.

The Old Dominion has a bluer tint these days, thanks to a lot of sensational Democratic volunteers and some strong Dem candidates.

I think we pick up John Warner's seat in November and replace him with the vastly superior model of Warner.

And let's go full-court press to carry the state on the presidential line, too.

[DUyellow]

6. Go Webb

[stillrockin]

10. Yeah, way to go Webb. Way to vote for telecom immunity.

[saltpoint]

12. 'Would prefer he voted to my liking on this one, yes, but in the main,

I thought George Allen was just shy of being a true monster, and the Senate as a chamber is a healthier place without him and his racist paraphernalia.

[stillrockin]

15. Totally agree re Allen, but Webb is a douche bag in his own special way . .

[DUyellow]

28. Easy killer, one vote doesn't destroy a person. I will write and ask him why he voted for it...

I'll let you know what the response is.

[stillrockin]

32. While you're at it, ask him why he has been

routinely voting with Repugs since he got in. And FYI, when I called his office today BEFORE the vote, I was told he opposed immunity. I guess he got a better offer later. He is my senator and believe me, this is not the first, second or third time he's pulled this kind of shit.

[DUyellow]

34. well we do not live far from each other then. I plan to ask contact him and ask.

[Yavin4]

30. Virginia Has Some of the Best Schools, At All Levels, In The Country

Only a matter of time before it went blue.

[saltpoint]

43. Hi, Yavin4. Well, I'm glad it did. I'm far away from Virginia by miles but

enjoying the blue conversion vicariously on the web and from friends there.

They're doing it right in the Old Dominion.

[Yavin4]

46. If I Had Kids, I Would Raise Them in No. Virginia

I cannot say enough good things about that region.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

3. it's fascinating

[racaulk]

4. I have long felt that Virgnia has the potential to turn blue this year.

And those numbers continue to convince me that this may happen.

:woohoo:

[DUyellow]

8. it is in play

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. The R nomination is already wrapped up

It's apples and oranges

[Laelth]

22. Good point.

So, let's look at another key factor--turnout.

Virginia has a total population of 7,642,884. The voting-age population is 5,839,163. Of those, a total of 1,442,697 (roughly 25%) turned out to vote in the primary even though the Republic nomination was already sewn up. Of course, high turnout tends to favor Democrats. Does this color your analysis?

BTW, I understand your skepticism. I felt Virginia was in play in both 2000 and 2004. I was disappointed both times, but I honestly feel that Obama can carry Virginia if he is the nominee. If it's Hillary, I am much less confident.

:toast:

-Laelth

[BlackVelvet04]

7. Of course they crossed over....

I live in a rural republican area of Virginia and just while I was in the polling place the people voting in the democratic primary outnumber those voting in the republican primary 9 - 1.

Most of them were republicans.

[Laelth]

9. Interesting.

Who do you think these Republics were voting for? I am genuinely curious.

-Laelth

[stahbrett]

17. Most of them voted for Obama, as did almost every other group

He got ~60% of the Democratic vote, for example.

[BlackVelvet04]

20. I think it was a protest vote against McCain.....

possibly some intended to just screw with the Democrats primary. Maybe a couple like Obama but I've seen nothing to indicate that the majority in this area would be willing to have a black president. That's sad, but true.

[DUyellow]

27. "possibly some intended to just screw with the Democrats primary." proves my point.

[onenote]

33. well, for what its worth, I know some democrats that voted for huckabee to screw with mccain

[Hardrada]

11. And what would this pattern indicate, do you think?

[BlackVelvet04]

21. It could mean any number of things....

see my post above.

[DUyellow]

16. say if they did, exit polls said that 30% was Inds, and Repubs, 30 % did not cross over to f thin...

things up. I think we can both agree, Obama won by 29%, say 10% did cross over (i do not believe that, but to give your argument some attention), say Obama did get 10% cross over to mess with the Virginia primary, that still is not enough to alter the outcome of the election. Clinton lost, she lost in MD (closed), she lost in DC (closed), and she lost in VA (open).

Your argument holds no water.

[BlackVelvet04]

19. I didn't make an argument, now, did I? I stated what I

saw. So your argument that my argument holds no water holds no water because I didn't make an argument. Try comprehending instead of making shit up.

[DUyellow]

26. no...

The OP said cross over happened, you said "Of course they crossed over" which would insinuate that his win came from the cross over. If that is not what your intent was, then i miss interpreted your words, however i have seen it in many post today that Obama's win in VA is due to the open primary. That argument holds no water.

[BlackVelvet04]

29. I didn't insinuate anything...

it was obvious that republicans crossed over. You may have inferred something from that but I didn't insinuate. I made it clear that the reason for that could have been any one of a couple or a combination.

The reason I said OF COURSE is because of the numbers....this is still republican country. It's changing but it hasn't changed that drastically.

[DUyellow]

36. I think my state will go blue in November, it has changed here

[BlackVelvet04]

38. If the repubs put huckabee on the ticket

Virgina will show it's true colors I'm afraid.

[DUyellow]

42. huckabee doesn't have a chance

[boppers]

23. Any idea of what "kind" of republicans?

Party diehards? Immigration-hating-republicans? "I registered republican 'cuz it was cool in the 80's" folks?

I'd be very, very happy if one outcome of all of this is if much of the vast "swing" voter block realized that we are the party of the working class, we are the party of fiscal responsibility, we are the party of taking care of people in need, we are the party looking our for the needs of children, the elderly, those in need, and we are the party of the future.

[Sheri]

31. can't say for virginia

but i have a snob of a brother-in-law who wears the coolest clothes, nicest shoes, and has the best of everything. he's been voting republican for as long as i've known him, but this year he's voting democratic. looks to me like the cool kids are trending blue this year.

[IronLionZion]

47. I'm interested in seeing any evidence of an organized effort

Who is telling them how to vote? Is it the RW radio? Fox news? The RNC? The state GOP? Who?

The average Republican voters are not clever enough to much of anything on their own. If it's happening, then somebody has to be encouraging it. I am very skeptical of these assertions.

[Sara Bradi]

14. after super tuesday, even Karl Rove said on Fox...

that democrats are energized and this could be a problem for the R nominee.

Yes VA should go blue this year.

[Cha]

25. Yeah, I wonder why the Dems

are energized? Any ideas, karl?..hmmmm?

[Frances]

18. MD will go Dem,

but VA will be close. Webb barely defeated Allen in 2006.

But having Mark Warner running for Senator will help.

If it's McCain/Huckabee, then VA could go Repub.

[DUyellow]

37. Warner will win.

[Frances]

39. I feel sure Warner will win

I'm just not sure that Obama or Hillary could defeat McCain/Huckabee. I hope I'm wrong.

[Recursion]

44. Same name as the retiring Senator whose seat he is running for

The sad truth is that will be a huge plus for him

[DUyellow]

45. and the fact that he was the Governor of Virginia

[TheWraith]

40. I've been saying it since 2004... Virginia is WINNABLE!

So are a LOT of the "red" states. Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia, the Carolinas, Colorado, New Mexico: none of them are as red as people give them credit for being. We could win most of them.

[cooolandrew]

41. Put those figures together and Barack wins by 75 percent Go Obama. God bless you sir.