Texas Pollster: Obama closing gap only 10 point gap 1/31

[grantcart]

On the Jan 31 Poll Texas Pollster: Clinton Latino advantage dropped from 70-7 to 60-29 Dec/Jan

Clinton 48% (46%)
Obama 38% (28%)
Gravel 3% (0%)
Undecided 10% (8%)


Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1

There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

Obama's support among African-Americans actually dipped slightly as the number of undecided women increased. Obama still has a large lead 55-21, with 24% undecided.

Both candidates gained among white voters with Edwards departure. Obama gained eight points while Clinton gained five. I can't distinguish between former Edwards voters and prior movement, but my best guess would be that it was a combination of the two. Undecided was also up two points.

Clinton's support was even between men and women, but Obama had seven points higher support among men. Women were seven points more likely to be undecided.




Pollster Dates N/Pop Obama Clinton Undecided
IVR Polls 1/30-31/08 534 LV 38 48 10
IVR Polls 1/10/08 567 LV 28 46 10
IVR Polls 12/11/07 510 LV 17 51 6
IVR Polls 11/7-8/07 510 LV 17 51 8
IVR Polls 7/9/07 596 LV 20 42 17
IVR Polls 6/4/07 513 LV 15 40 19
IVR Polls 5/31/07 487 RV 18 45 11

[MJJLWolf2]

1. I predict it will easily be with 5 points.

20% of Texas is made up of blacks. They are now breaking for Obama at minimum of 80%.

Hillary needs it to be at least a 15% difference to begin to make up ground. It ain't happening.

[Wizard777]

4. Obama is also doing very well with white males. n/t

[Thrill]

2. He's yet to hit the state yet

[TexasObserver]

3. that's two weeks ago, too