McCain vs Obama......The electoral map is not favorable to Obama.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

Assuming Obama carries the same states Kerry carried in 2004, the only way he wins is if he flips either Florida and/or Ohio, or a combination of New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia.

Florida is virtually off the table with their messy Dem delegate situation and a popular Republican governor. Not to mention McCain's spat with Castro is sure to drive up Miami Cuban base vote down there.

Ohio is older, is particularly working class, not overwhelmingly college educated, and has more moderate to conservative leaning voters outside Columbus and Cleveland. None of those favor Obama. I would have to give the edge to McCain there. Ohio already leans red.

That leaves NM, NV and VA, which would be an uphill battle because without Ohio or Florida Obama can't get it done.


Don't put too much stock in those "hypothetical head to heads." The general election is an electoral college battle, not a popular vote situation.

[Frances]

1. I don't think either Hillary or Obama will have an easy time of

it against McCain.

[MadBadger]

2. If Obama is the nominee, we will win Virginia.

[Va Lefty]

6. I agree

Also West Virginia and Missouri

[AX10]

3. It will be a hard fought election.

No doubt about it.
I am expecting the Democrats in congress to do better than the nominee for the Whitehouse.

[TheWraith]

4. Are you kidding? We're likely to run the table.

Look at the turnout figures for us versus them. We're consistently turning out two voters for every one of theirs.

[featherman]

5. Disagree deeply... but this is not the time to go into it

I will bore you endlessly with the nitty-gritty of this stuff as the GE unfolds.

[Barack_America]

7. I just don't think that any of those models apply.

These represent a race between two white guys, with little or no support from the *other* side. That simply does not apply in a race between Obama and McCain. And it's not just because one of them is black. They've also both showed an ability to tap into the other party's voters. The one who manages to do that most successfully will win. But I don't feel confident that we have any reliable models to tell us which one will be able to do so.

[TheWraith]

24. We may have a preview. Results from Virginia show independents chose Obama over McCain.

With the choice of voting in either primary, independents in a red-leaning swing state chose the Democrat over the Republican, even with Virginia's likely bias towards the military, and therefore towards McCain.

[lancer78]

8. Don't forget Colorado.

[Arugula Latte]

9. Well, if Obama can't win those states, then Hillary certainly can't.

He's the stronger candidate.

And, I do think he will win those states handily.

[gravity]

11. No kidding

[Barack_America]

13. True. You don't get extra electoral college votes for turning a blue state more blue. n/t

[Wizard777]

10. Obama just took Virginia BIG TIME. n/t

[jasonkrueger]

16. But he took it from Hillary, the unelectable one n/t

[Wizard777]

35. Obama took it from Mc Cain too.

Obama - 619,036

Mc Cain - 242,578

In Virginia Obama got more votes than all the Republicans combined.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

18. in an OPEN Primary..meaning repukes were allowed to vote in the Dem race...and they won't be there..

to vote for Obama in Nov...do you get it?

[Bicoastal]

20. What about all those other CLOSED caucuses where he won by a huge margin?

Those weren't in blue states, ya know...

[ElsewheresDaughter]

22. show me "all" of those please?

[Bicoastal]

32. Well, someone else already did, but sure...

Nebraska: Obama 68%, Clinton 32%. CLOSED CAUCUS.

Alaska: Obama 75%, Clinton 25%. CLOSED CAUCUS.

Colorado: Obama 67%, Clinton 32%. CLOSED CAUCUS.

Kansas: Obama 74%, Clinton 26%. CLOSED CAUCUS.

Well? Concede the point? In fact, there may be more I'm forgetting about, but it's still more than the closed caucuses Hillary's won in Red OR Blue states.

(BTW--you owe me. That was hard to look up.)

[TheWraith]

26. Actually, they WILL be there.

Obama won independents in Virginia away from McCain, which is big. The small percentages of Republicans who crossed the lines aren't substantial, but the indies are.

[Indenturedebtor]

12. If HRC salts the earth

He may lose. Otherwise he will win.

[Thrill]

14. The Dems will keep all the Blue states and flip COL, NV, NM, Missouri and VA

[TheWraith]

25. I feel good about Ohio and maybe Georgia, too. NT

[jasonkrueger]

15. And let's not forget, blacks always vote 85%, 90% Democratic anyway

So it won't be much of a difference. And we can't really say that the turnout this time will exceed Kerry's, because I remember black turnout being humongous in 2004.

[nomorewhopper]

17. I recommend you to go outside and get some air away from these boards. seriously

[ElsewheresDaughter]

19. cicada noice

[New Dawn]

21. We don't need Florida to win.

Ohio is very important though.

[TheWraith]

28. No, we don't NEED it, but aren't massive blowouts fun? NT

[lligrd]

23. If The Democrat vs Republican Turnout Percentages

carry over to November Obama will win hands down.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

27. oh but they won't and the red states will remain just that

[lligrd]

34. Where'd You Get Your Psychic Degree?

Or are you just against hope?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

37. I'm just a realist

[donheld]

29. That means you and I have our work cut out for us.

No time to bicker, just work.

[RummyTheDummy]

30. The GE is an electoral college battle? Not a popular vote situation?

That explains why I've been sitting around for 8 years waiting for Gore's presidency to begin.

How is she better positioned to win Ohio and Florida in Nov. than he is? I don't see it.

Regardless, whoever is the nominee can be the president if they hold Kerry's states (252 EC votes, doable for both IMO) and pick up a combination of Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri or Virginia for the needed 18 votes.

The GOP has no chance of winning Iowa this year, so that's 7 votes there. All that's needed is 11 more. It's doable, whoever the nominee is, and moreover without Ohio and Florida, states where BOTH will be pissing into the wind to capture.

Ohio had the fate of the country in their hands in 2004 and they felt we needed another 4 years of Bush. If the majority of Ohio voters (excluding those here at DU) are that stupid or uninformed then it's time the Dems move beyond Ohio as the cornerstone of their electoral strategy. Wasted effort IMO.

[ellisonz]

31. What don't you get about the 50 state strategy?

Obama is going after McCain everywhere. He will out fundraise him, out ground game him, out spin him, and ultimately beat the electoral crap out of him. Landslide!

[Beregond2]

33. Electoral...

The fact that Ohio is "particularly working class" is in Obama's favor, if you ask me. I am going on what I have seen here in WA of course.

[fortyfeetunder]

36. McCain will NOT be a shoo-in

I think McCain has got an uphill battle with the younger voters who are now hyped up about this election. McCain represents status quo politics and eternal war with Iraq...which I think younger voters want no part of.

If he wins, I would speculate he got "help"...KWIM?