Texas democratic voters.

[loveangelc]

Okay, so i was hearing about texas and their demographics. supposedly 20% of the democratic vote in texas is hispanic. but i believe i heard 20% of the democratic vote are black? so basically it will come down to who wins the white vote in tx? is this crazy to think or am i onto something?

[FrenchieCat]

1. Nope....that won't be the split.

Blacks will vote most likely 85/15 to Obama
Hispanics 55 Clinton/45 Obama (maybe better)

White Vote will not have to split evenly for Obama to get the delegates he needs.

[angie_love]

2. Pretty much, I saw this on MSNBC w/ Tim Russert

He said about 21% of black voters came out in 04, 25% of hispanic voters came out in 04. I don't know much about the white demographic there though, except that men there aren't too keen on Hillary.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Obama will win a bigger number of black votes than Clinton does Hispanic.

[BringBigDogBack]

4. Obama is going to take Texas

my home town (Austin), especially.

Obama has strong support down here. Texans for Obama has been active for quite some time, garnering support for their candidate.

I think Hillary and Obama split Ohio and Texas, with about even margins in each respective state. Just my feel on it right now.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

5. I heard 50% of Democratic voters in TX are Hispanic

[catagory5]

6. 50%? nah.....Way off.

No it is not 50%, although that would be favorable. She will take Texas but I think looking at the precincts (I live in Houston) the way the delegates will split, she will maybe get 60-40 split. Maybe. He will get a good chunk in downtown Houston (3rd ward, 4th ward, etc) and I suppose Dallas. But by in large Texas is backing Clinton. After Texas and Ohio she is gonna owe us a big one, cause it's gonna get her back in the good graces of the msm! But boy oh boy its gonna be a long 20 days until then. From now and then we will see superdelegates bounce back and forth from one to another. Whichever way the wind is blowing. They only love you as your last performance. And hers really stank. But its the Clinton's, and they don't go out like this. Somehow they will make it right and turn this around. they have to.

[BringBigDogBack]

8. Sorry. That's incorrect.

one interesting fact about Texas that is sorely overlooked: African Americans vote in higher numbers in Texas than Hispanics.

[loveangelc]

9. is there any evidence for this? if thats true, obama could win

just because obama wins african americans by much more than hillary wins hispanic americans...

[BringBigDogBack]

10. From a past election cycle...

Texas data



Race Registered Voted InterestModifier Modified Turn out

White 57.7% 35% 1.5 52.50%

Black 65.1% 44.3% 1.7 75.31%

Hispanic 39.1% 19% 1.3 24.70%

Other 25.7% 13.8% 1 13.80%

[BringBigDogBack]

11. For the record, it's closer to 30, maybe a little less.

[intaglio]

7. There is an unspoken racist assumption in the OP and posts

"Hispanics" will vote against Obama because he is black. This treats them as if they were some mindless unitary group of clones.

[jackson_dem]

12. Hispanics are 35% of the Texas population, blacks are 12%

In 2004 Hispanics supposedly accounted for 25% of voters in the Democratic primary. In the 2006 general election they were 15% of overall voters and blacks 8%. That is almost a 2:1 ratio and the Latino percentage should be slightly higher now than then. However, since 90% of blacks are Democrats and roughly two-thirds of Hispanics are that will close the gap a bit. There won't be parity, though. There will be more Latinos. Black bloc voting for Obama may offset the numerical advantage. Obama should get 85-88% of the black vote. Hillary would be happy with 70% of the Latino vote.

The white vote will matter in the sense Obama can't rely solely on black voters like he did in South Carolina, Georgia, Maryland, and Louisana. His white support is not as high as people think it is. Even yesterday when he won big overall in Maryland and Virginia he lost the white vote in both states, especially among white Democrats. He does win the white rethug and white "independent" vote. For instance in MD he lost white Democrats by 13 and white voters overall by 10. This was offset by winning blacks 84-15% as they made up almost two-fifths of voters in MD.

[kennetha]

13. Good Points!

Clinton is now on much less hostile demographic territory. In MD, Obama started out basically with a 33% - 0 lead because of the rock solid AA vote. In VA, he started out with a 27% - 0 lead. And don't even think about DC.