Texas: What Firewall? A roughly even split of TX delegates is all but certain.

[jefferson_dem]

HomeDiariesBreaking BlueE-Wire 2008Texas: What Firewall?
by Glenn Smith, Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 04:00:31 AM EST

I've been asked to shine a little light on the upcoming March 4 Texas primary, the one described by the Clinton campaign and some pundits as Clinton's possible firewall.

But my question is, what firewall? Assuming both campaigns perform at optimum levels, It is all but guaranteed that Obama and Clinton will wind up with a more or less even split of the delegates here, based on the delegate apportionment process and the candidates' strengths and weaknesses in the state.

Clinton may not lose ground in Texas. I guess that's what makes a firewall. But it's virtually guaranteed that she can't gain ground either. If the national delegate count showing Obama up by 120 or so pledged delegates is close to correct, she'll need big delegate margins here and elsewhere.

Clinton's delegate comeback won't start here. She'd be trying to end a drought with a tear.

The Lone Star State revealed below.

Before you read on, full disclosure: I support Obama.

But Hillary Clinton remains the only presidential candidate who ever hugged me. I like her, admire her and have nothing negative to say about her. Despite my preference, I'll give as objective a look as I can.

The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has an edge because of her strengths among Hispanics, her support among women, her win in Oklahoma, and Arkansas' proximity. Hispanics may be 25 percent of the primary turnout. Women will probably make up 51 percent or so.

Obama's strengths here come from a fast-growing, younger, more progressive Democratic base with victories under its belt, and surprising support among independent and moderate-to-conservative types. The support among African American voters will be strong.

But you've heard all that. Here's what you might not have heard. I'll start with delegate projections, because that's most important. There a good, lengthy description here.

<SNIP>

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/13/4031/96963#commenttop

[my3boyz]

1. The pundits is saying that splitting delegates with him

is no longer good enough. She has to win BIG! I'm not sure that can happen against Obama. If you notice his loses to her, they are never huge like hers are to his. The only ones where she won HUGE was when he was not on the ballot or in a location where he pledged not to compaign. When he campaigns in an area he closes the gap.

[Jim Lane]

16. Clinton has won by big margins in some states

I don't know what the cutoff for "huge" is (in your statement that Obama's losses to Clinton "are never huge like hers are"). According to the data from (mouse over the map to see individual results), she won her "home" states of Arkansas by 42% and New York by 17%. Other nice Clinton wins: Oklahoma by 24%, Massachusetts by 15%, and Tennessee by 13%.

The Votemaster gives the latest poll results as follows: Texas (as of January 31): Clinton 48%, Obama 38%; Ohio (as of February 11): Clinton 56%, Obama 39%. I'd guess that Obama will close some of the gap in each state. The trend elsewhere seems to be that Clinton has a big early lead, presumably based on name recognition, but that the final result -- after both of them campaign and become better known -- is better for Obama than the initial polls were. This has been true even in most Clinton victories, such as New Hampshire.

[XemaSab]

19. He's beat her by over 20 points in 14 elections,

She's beat him by over 20 points in Arkansas and Oklahoma. :P

[alteredstate]

2. k & r n/t

[OzarkDem]

3. Combo of Texas Ohio and PA will do the trick

[jefferson_dem]

4. ...If she wins those states by margins of 65(is) to 35(ish)...

Perhaps.

[workinclasszero]

5. ...If she wins those states by margins of 65(is) to 35(ish)...

Yeah....:rofl:

I'll believe that when it happens.

[OzarkDem]

6. If she wins in those key states, the super delegates will support her

And don't forget she can carry Michigan and Florida, something Obama cannot do. Its about who can carry the important states in the GE. The Repubs aren't going to hand the election to Dems, you know.

[Jawja]

7. Perhaps

Obama does better in Michigan or Florida if he campaigns in the State or is actually on the ballot? :shrug:

[babylonsister]

11. Don't let that reality enter into this! Bad Jawja!

Some people are just a bit delusional. I heard one of the talking heads say last night with Obama's wins yesterday, it's negated all the votes in FL/MI. I'll have to follow-up on that.

[Jawja]

18. I know, I know.

:spank:

[qazplm]

9. and why cant

Obama win Michigan?

[Vinca]

10. If Obama had broken the rules and campaigned in Michigan AND

left his name on the ballot, he would have won Michigan. What has caused Michigan the most jobs? NAFTA. What president passed NAFTA? Clinton. I don't think Michigan would be a Clinton love fest if a bona fide election was run there. She might have won Florida in an election that counted, but not Michigan.

[Recursion]

12. Obama can carry Michigan

He just chose to keep his word and take his name off the ballot.

[XemaSab]

20. Michigan hasn't gone Red in 20 years

I think Barack can safely count on having that one in the General Election.

[JackORoses]

23. How do you know what Obama can do in MI and FL? He wasn't even allowed to campaign there.

[awaysidetraveler]

8. Nice article, and I think you're right: Obama can hold ground at the least in Texas.

And that's all he has to do, given his hundred elected delegate lead.

[Joanne98]

13. If latinos split along age lines then she has a problem

If younger latinos vote for Obama, I can't see her pulling this off. It's also possible that younger latinos will convince their parents to change and vote with them Obama needs to make an appeal directly to them. In Ohio, it's the Edwards voters he has to target. I think he can do it if he starts right away. He needs to start holding rallies in TX and OH immediately.

[Adelante]

14. Yep

I'm still thinking Obama has a good shot at Texas. But even if he loses, she loses, too, unless she can bring it in with an Obama-sized margin.

[starchimes]

15. I think alot of Texans are still undecided. I for one am. As an

Edwards supporter, I am still having a hard time making up my mind. I go back and forth from one day to the next. I tend to vote with my gut feeling. My gut is telling me Hillary, but Obama stands closer to my issues. Hopefully, someone will stand out more by the time the primary gets here.

[snooper2]

17. I just talked to someone at work..

lady who is 47 (white if it matters) and asked me who I was for. Advised Obama of course, and she said she is as well.

She has been watching all the speeches and debates, and even though he is to the left of her on several issues, she is for Obama even over McCain in the general. For all her life she has voted Republican but likes Obama's vision of a new America united, and taking the PAC money out of politics (lobbyists)....

She said his one speech where he whispered "republicans can vote with us too", she wanted to shout out loud I'm for Obama and I'm a Republican Woman!

Pretty amazing... March 4th may be very interesting !

[IndianaGreen]

21. Hillary is following Rudy Giuliani's strategery

Hillary's only option is to set up some obscure group and try to swiftboat Obama.

[Aptastik]

22. "She'd be trying to end a drought with a tear."

I thought was her campaign strategy