OBAMA CAMPAIGN MANAGER: SHE CAN'T CATCH US!

[Thepricebreaker]

Obama has begun to make his own inevitability case, and David Plouffe made it explicit on a conference call this morning, telling reporters that it's now "next to impossible" for Clinton to surpass what he says is a 136-person lead among pledged delegates.

"The only way she could do it is by winning most of the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points," he said. "Even the most creative math really does not get her, ever, back to even in terms of pledged delegates."

"This is not about votes -- it's about delegates," Plouffe said.

The other half of this case, of course, is that superdelegates will and/or should follow the pledged delegates.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Plouffe_She_cant_catch_us.html


... I dont know if its good to gloat so soon - but Plouffe is right on the math.

[mdmc]

1. Those Clintons will mess you up!

Watch your back, watch your knees... Don't count chickens before they hatch...

[Brother_1969]

5. Absolutely right.

How this goes, IMO, depends on how ugly the Clintons are willing to be. Consider:

1. Superdelegates to be swayed

2. There's also Florida and Michigan still to be decided.

3. At the convention, if there's no victor after the first vote, any delegate (super and otherwise) can change their vote.

I wouldn't count the Clintons out until the convention is over.

[KittyWampus]

11. Clintons have all the superdelegates they're going to get if Obama maintains his majority in pledged

delegates.

[HeraldSquare212]

15. If they get too ugly, the superdelegates will abandon them in droves.

Their financial supporters, also. Those will be the two groups that impose some reasonableness on the campaign, either by persuasion or just deserting. I think a lot of Hillary's public excuses have been aimed at them, to keep them on her side.

[salin]

2. while I think his chances have just shot up....

it is always not a good thing to have over confidence from key advisors. That is when mistakes are most likely to occur.

[still_one]

3. stupid statement, and I am an Obama supporter

This could very well go to the Convention undecided, and no one knows what would happen then

Superdelegates are still an issue

MI and FL may become an issue

There are still quite a few variables

[papau]

4. Yep - assuming Ohio/Texas/&Penn go Hillary, she is 100 or so less than Obama -if FL/Mich are

not allowed to be counted.

Actually, the case against Obama goes away - that he only wins useless in the general red states, and a black vote that is perhaps 20% of the Dem vote, 10% of the total, plus the Starbucks whites - those with leisure like wealthy and college town and self employed with no schedule - which is the crowd that has given us only losers in the general over the years - all that goes away if Obama wins 2 out of 3 of those blue states Ohio, Texas, and Penn.

Heck winning just one will make the "lets end this" noise so loud Hillary might withdraw.

But winning 2 would be impossible to ignore and would make the seating of Mich/FL a moot point.

[Strelnikov_]

9. " 2 out of 3 of those blue states Ohio, Texas, and Penn "

So, Obama only wins "useless in the general red states".

But "all that goes away if Obama wins 2 out of 3 of those blue states Ohio, Texas, and Penn"

So Ohio and Texas are blue states now?

Wow.

[nolabels]

6. After 29 posts the poster has this OP ?

Does this seem a little divisive or is it just me :shrug:

[GDAEx2]

7. 20 points down, 100 delegates behind

The Obama camp has to proceed as if this were the case. Someone said it yesterday.
DO NOT COUNT THE CLINTONS OUT,
or take your eye off the ball until the last out is made.

[Araxen]

8. Spin, Spin, Spin

This is nothing but spin to sway the Super's. Obama isn't going to let up at all till he President of the United States. They will not go into a prevent defense!!!

[snooper2]

10. Clinton is running the half/Hickabee half/Ghouliani campaign...

We don't do math, but we do miracles + Just wait till Florida!

[AlertLurker]

12. ummmmm...doesn't Texas alone have 228 delegates?

Isn't Obama only ahead by about 25 delegates so far? What am I missing?

[bigtree]

13. ahead by about 100 in voted for delegates, the rest are supers

who shouldn't be expected to line up behind someone who's trailing in votes. Clinton has to start shaving away that 100 and do well in the biggies

[Big Blue Marble]

14. You are missing some pretty important math.

Obama's campaign rep said that Obama has 135 pledged delegates more that she does.
Since it is likely that a best they will split the rest of the delegates fairly
equally, she can not catch up.

He will win the pledged delegate race. Will the supers go against the people's choice?

[AlertLurker]

16. I haven't seen 135 anywhere. Not the most unbiased source, either...

Every news magazine I see says 1215 Obama 1190 Clinton 26 Edwards. Is this wrong? If Edwards declares for Clinton, what happens to those 26 delegates? What happens to the 115 North Carolina delegates whom he may influence?

I was wrong about the number of Texas delegates - there are only 193. Still...

I have read that HRC cannot catch up on a few threads today. How so? As long as she can keep it close, and keep Obama from the supermajority, she's got a really good chance to take it via the superdelegates. I looked at the number of superdelegates who have declared and they are almost 2 to 1 for HRC.

To answer your last question:

Yes. Of course they will go against the people, if they have to. When have they EVER done otherwise? Sheep have short memories and shorter attention spans.

[Big Blue Marble]

17. Those counts you use include superdelegates.

Right now the counts that count are the pledged delegates that were
won in the primaries and caucuses.

That is where he is ahead say around 130. If Hillary uses super delegates to override the will of the voters,
all hell will breakout in the Democratic Party. It just isn't going to work this time.
She will alienate the AA voters for starters and many of the other Obama supporters.
We have had at least one election stolen. We do not want one stolen within our own party.

I think that would destroy this party. The super delegates will not let that happen.
They are politically savy and read the voting results very carefully. They want to win
and they want a Democratic President.

This time the Clintons will lose. And if they are not careful, they risk becoming pariahs in
their very own party.