Why Wisconsin worries me....

[Bread and Circus]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2004179392_wisconsin13.html

Wisconsin may offer Democrats level playing field

MILWAUKEE — The Clinton campaign has made it pretty clear how it wants its candidate to be seen in Wisconsin.

snip

It has suggested publicly and privately that Barack Obama enjoys built-in advantages here — not just because he has the state's second-term governor in his corner, but also because of the nature of Wisconsin's open primary and the mix of voters who will turn out next Tuesday.

And there's something to that.

Combine a big campus vote with oodles of independents and a heaping of reform-minded, anti-war liberals, and this electorate sounds tailor-made for the youthful senator from the state next door.

But the recent history of the Wisconsin primary suggests a more level playing field than that.

Take a turnout that will be majority female, add an oversize union vote and large numbers of working-class whites, and the political turf begins to look a little friendlier to the former first lady.

Then consider the fact that the strongest predictors of success for Obama over the 30-plus contests so far have been: primaries with a huge African-American vote, and caucuses that generate low turnouts dominated by high-intensity supporters.

Neither remotely describes the contest in Wisconsin.

So where does that leave the point spread?

end snip

[TwilightGardener]

1. More naysayers, more minimizing of his success--it might be a close battle, but

I can't see how WI is much different of an electorate than MN or IL or MI--I think he'll do fine. The midwest seems to love him--and he's working the state HARD, taking nothing for granted.

[Bread and Circus]

2. I hope he does fine. He better!

[Dogmudgeon]

3. You're right. Obama can't lose.

He's unstoppable. Hillary is doomed. And I, as one of her lackeys, hang my head in the shame of recognition of his superior skills, intellect, and moral fibre.

--p!

[TwilightGardener]

7. No, I said it might be close--of course he can lose. Nothing is guaranteed--

but to point to the history of the voting states so far to try to make the case that Obama has narrow appeal, or can only prevail under certain conditions, is silly--he's proven himself in diverse states, in diverse formats, in diverse electorates. And he's there today, hard at work. He is focused on winning it.

[papau]

4. Hillary winning should not worry you anymore than Obama winning worries

those supporting Hillary -

in any case, Obama will win Wisconsen - Madison is half the Dem vote in the primary plus the AA population of Milwaukee.

It comes down to Texas/Ohio - If Obama spits those 2 or if he loses those 2 and wins Penn the nomination is his - Hillary has to win all three to assure that FL and Mich will be seated and Hillary will win, but Obama can chose to destroy the Democratic Party with win at any cost rejection or make meaningless FL/Mich.

[rox63]

5. So if Obama wins WI, will it suddenly become another state that "doesn't matter"?

:sarcasm:

[carpediem]

6. I'm a woman and I'm voting for Obama, as is my husband.

We're going to his town hall in Waukesha today with our kids (not voting age yet).

I asked my kids, who are in elementary school, if the kids in their classes are talking about who they like for President and most like Obama, at this age I think this represents the parents views somewhat. One of them said he didn't care as long as it wasn't a republican.:) This becomes more interesting when you consider we live in one of the reddest areas of Sensenbrenner's district.

[KittyWampus]

8. Sesenbrenner -shiver-

[quantass]

9. My Nonpartisan view on this...

I can see where you are coming OP and being as totally nonpartisan as possible i would strongly believe it will be a close race for either in Wisconsin HOWEVER what appears to be tilting this in Obama's favor is how WI is an open primary allowing the likes of Independence and others and even more significant is the large enthusiastic crowds Obama is drawing in that clearly translates into vote goers...I mean, look at the mamoth sizes he gets in audience (upwards of 17,000 with overages in the thousands sitting in the snow outside). Granted a number may be there to be apart of history or be inspired but it has shown in the past consistently that this guy drives a lot of people to vote for him. Yesterday, i believe Virgiinia alone had over 500,000 votes for him alone while the entire GOP votes "as a whole" had considerably less. But from what i have observed it appears that when Obama focuses heavily on a state and gets them all upbeat he destroys Hilary in the votes. He has been campaigning in Winsonsin much earlier and been very serious about it while Hilary has all but conceded this state, as was seen yesterday with her rallying in Texas instead of focusing on the next contest of WI (and Hawaii). So that being said, there's a very good chance Obama will win Wisconsin. But this all relies on the turnout levels next week-- if counties start reporting Record turn out #'s early on during Tuesday, next week, then this will be a sure sign Obama-mania is still in effect and he will win yet again.