Can Obama beat John McCain?

[chaz4jazz]

Here's Joseph C Wilson's take on that. He says "No."

With the emergence of Sen. John McCain as the presumptive Republican nominee, the choice for the Democrats in the 2008 presidential election now shifts to who is best positioned to beat him, in what promises to be a more hard-fought campaign -- and perhaps a nastier one -- than Democrats anticipated.

Sen. Barack Obama's promise of transformation and an end of partisan politics has its seductive appeal. The Bush-Cheney era, after all, has been punctuated by smear campaigns, character assassinations and ideological fervor.

Nobody dislikes such poisonous partisanship, especially in foreign policy, more than I do. I am one of very few Foreign Service officers who to have served as ambassador in the administrations of both George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, yet I have spent the past four years fighting a concerted character assassination campaign orchestrated by the George W. Bush White House.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is one of the few who fully understood the stakes in that battle. Time and again, she reached out to my wife -- outed CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson -- and me to remind us that as painful as the attacks were, we simply could not allow ourselves to be driven from the public square by bullying. To do so would validate the radical right's thesis that the way to win debates is to demonize opponents, taking full advantage of the natural desire to avoid confrontation, even if it means yielding on substantive issues. Hillary knew this from experience, having spent the better part of the past 20 years fighting the Republican attack machine. She is a fighter.

But will Mr. Obama fight? His brief time on the national scene gives little comfort. Consider a February 2006 exchange of letters with Mr. McCain on the subject of ethics reform. The wrathful Mr. McCain accused Mr. Obama of being "disingenuous," to which Mr. Obama meekly replied, "The fact that you have now questioned my sincerity and my desire to put aside politics for the public interest is regrettable but does not in any way diminish my deep respect for you." Then McCain said, "Obama wouldn't know the difference between an RPG and a bong."

<SNIP>

Senator Obama claims superior judgment on the war in Iraq based on one speech given as a state legislator representing the most liberal district in Illinois at an anti-war rally in Chicago, and in so doing impugns the integrity of those who were part of the debate on the national scene. In mischaracterizing the debate on the Authorization for the Use of Military Force as a declaration of war, he implicitly blames Democrats for George Bush's war of choice. Obama's negative attack line does not conform to the facts. Nothing could be farther from the truth. I should know. I was among the most prominent anti-war voices at the time -- and never heard about or from then Illinois State Senator Obama.

[quantass]

1. "Yes we Can!"

[Frances]

4. Slogans won't be enough to defeat the Repubs

Prepare for a VERY tough fight.

[chaz4jazz]

5. Read the post - you answered just the headlines - but maybe that's all you ever do

[Hieronymus]

39. Obama will beat McCain by a wider margin than Hillary.

[Teaser]

2. Joe Wilson, has run 100s of successful campaigns

oh wait, no he hasn't.

[Marie26]

3. Yes

ANY Democrat can & will beat McCain. This will be a blow-out either way.

[Seen the light]

10. Agreed, even Kucinich could have beaten McCain

McCain is going to be that horribly inept as a candidate.

[Marie26]

19. Yep.

That's why the Republicans are all looking so sad-eyed. They won't admit it, but they know that this'll be an embarrassment & maybe even a final defeat for the GOP. Can't wait!

[Frances]

13. Sorry, assuming that this election will be a blow-out

is a recipe for disaster.

I can only assume you have not lived through many elections or you would know better than to make such a statement.

[Marie26]

30. It'll be a blowout

That's not an assumption, that's based on fact. Look at the turnout in every single one of these primaries - Dem turnout more than doubles Republican turnout. And that's true even in red states like Neb. & Tenn. The Dem party is energized & excited; the Rep. party is demoralized & defeated. Huckabee is STILL getting 50% of the Rep. vote, even though McCain is the "presumptive nominee". That tells me that 50% of the Rep. base cannot stand McCain. The Republicans depended on the fundie/con. base to turn out & elect Bush. But will these conservatives bother to turn out in the GE in order to vote for a man they hate? I doubt it. So IMO the whole "electibility" theme is not a big deal - both Clinton & Obama are more electable than McCain will ever be.

[Frances]

33. Has it ever occurred to you that if McCain chooses

Huckabee for his VP, that McCain will start the contest with every Southern state a given for him?

McCain himself will not have to do the dirty work, but others will do it for him in the rest of the country.

Either Hillary or Obama will tell you that they don't think the contest against McCain will be easy. Just look at the current poll numbers and the Repubs haven't made one single attack against either Hillary or Obama. The poll numbers already reflect the anti-Bush sentiment in the country. They don't reflect the anti-our candidate that will result from dirty tricks.

I am happy that you are not advising Obama or Hillary because your thinking is not the thinking of a winner.

[Marie26]

38. Whatever

I'm sick of the endless threads about how McCain will win if Hillary/Obama gets the nomination. It's just fear tactics. The GOP is done, deader than a doornail. The Powers That Be know that, which is why the big money has switched to the Dem side.

[babylonsister]

6. Getting desperate, are you? This is old, but you need to provide a

link and cut it down to 4 paras. per DU rules.

[chaz4jazz]

18. This is yesterday's article

<http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.hillary12feb12,0,94551.story>

[babylonsister]

35. One day can be old news around here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4554578

[thereismore]

7. So Hillary is better because she has been "in the arena" longer. I don't buy it. nt

[Deep13]

23. The premise is she knows how to run a campaign ...

... to minimize negatives, maximize positives and cast as much doubt on McC. as possible. Of course the natural response is "why couldn't she do that against Obama?" I'm afraid at this point I really don't have an answer.

[L0oniX]

8. No problem since half of the repukes hate McPain and most likely wont vote in the GE.

[TwilightGardener]

9. Joe Wilson: I'm out of work. Hillary promised me a job. Vote for Hillary.

[Frances]

20. Your flippant attitude will not help us win the general.

[TwilightGardener]

22. ...

:smoke:

[jmg257]

11. Yes we can - like an old rented mule. He clearly showed why last night w/their 2 speeches.

[Egnever]

12. Easily

[Deep13]

14. I doubt it.

If I were laying odds right now, I would be betting on a McCain victory against either candidate. The one guy we had that could definitely beat him dropped out a few weeks ago to the consternation of many on this board (including me).

I will not be suprised if every ad the RNC runs uses the phrase "Barack Hussein Obama" and the inference will stick.

[TexasObserver]

15. Obama can and will beat McCain.

[Deep13]

24. I said the same thing about Dukakis in 1988.

Except it was "Bush" not "McCain" obviously.

[blm]

16. Sure she reached out to you, Joe, all the while supporting Scooter Libby through

her OTHER friends.

And while MANY of us were working for a Dem victory in 2004, Hillary's loyalists were working AGAINST us.

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/oct/07/did_carville_tip_bush_off_to_kerry_strategy_woodward

[ORDem]

17. With both hands tied behind his back.

I have a lot of respect for the Wilson's, but he is spewing a lot of nonsense here, out-of-context Obama quotes, lots of HRC talking points.

The country has not seen a leader like Obama for generations, his rise in the primaries has been nothing short of phenomenal, and thus I think any predictions of his demise in the GE are premature at best.

Furthermore, McCain has a host of problems with the conservative base, his thinking processes, and his big fat mouth. Also, there is no other hot-button issue that is going to bring out the Goopers this year (if HRC is not on the ticket).

McCain is the GOP's sacrificial lamb this cycle. They know W has screwed the pooch but good and they have little chance to retain the WH. The best they can hope for is hanging on to enough Senate and House seats to continue their obstructionist tactics.

IMHO, we should get this Dem primary season behind us and start pounding McCain AND, more importantly, work on a fillibuster proof Congress!!

:dem:

[Frances]

25. How many elections have you been through?

Why do so many Obama supporters not understand that you are doing Obama no favors by taking such an arrogant attitude?

[Deep13]

26. Don't kid yourself.

Beating the R's in November is never a slam dunk, though sometimes beating us is for them.

[Occam Bandage]

21. As nice as Joe Wilson's job-application letter is, I'm thinking the answer is "yes, and handily."

[Frances]

31. If McCain does defeat Obama,

I will still be rooting for the Dems. Where will you be?

[Occam Bandage]

34. Why do you ask? And why is the answer not obvious?

[Mountainman]

27. Sounds like someone who is mired in the past. McCain's attacks will all be about the past.

Obama talks about the future. Sure we need to look at the past and the mistakes made there but all McCain can give is more of the same. People are beginning to worry about their own personal issues like their job and their ability to pay their bills and buy food. McCain cannot talk to that. He is all war war war fear fear fear. I'm afraid that Joe Wilson is fighting the ghosts of the past also.

The winning candidate is the person who can best show people that he/she can get us out of the quagmire we are in and lead us back to the great country we once were.

[SteppingRazor]

28. Obama can most certainly beat the tar out of McCain. On a slight tangent...

I'm getting sick and tired of the many people who voted for the war (or, like Ambassador Wilson, champion a candidate who did) trying to claim that they did not know that the Authorization for the Use of Military Force would lead to an invasion. It's as though they think we don't have memories. We were all alive and sentient in 2002-2003. We all knew what that vote meant -- it meant war. Period. To pretend now that it did not is incredibly disingenuous, and insulting to my intelligence, and the intelligence of anyone else who actively spoke out and demonstrated against this war before it even began.

[GodlessBiker]

29. Obama's response wasn't "meek." It was the response called for under the circumstances.

[stillrockin]

32. Joe Wilson is a member of the Hillary cult.

Obama will kick McCain to the curb.

[Frances]

36. You are new to politics, aren't you?

[Vinca]

37. For starters, half the Republicans despise McCain and won't

vote for him unless energized by a Clinton candidacy(for whatever reason, the 'pukes unify over their hatred for the Clintons). Polls putting the candidates against McCain show Obama winning by 5 points, Clinton by 1. Numbers in the primaries show a fraction of Republicans showing up to vote compared to Democrats. I suspect, given McCain's "100 year war" remark, the Republicans who want to get out of Iraq, will not vote for him and may very well vote Democratic. Joe Wilson has a bias toward Hillary, so of course he's going to try to rain on Obama's parade.

[AtomicKitten]

40. Obama will whoop McCain like a rented mule.

[salin]

41. another "My Candidate or McCain wins" post...

I disagree with Wilson. The evidence per fundraising, per voter turnout simply suggest otherwise. The same would be true for Clinton as well.