If This Goes To The Floor At The Convention

[andyrowe]

Senator Barack Obama holds more state wins, delegates and the popular vote. If he maintains the lead in all three of these categories, will Hillary still continue to fight for the nomination in Denver? Should she?

[Drunken Irishman]

1. It won't go that far.

[andyrowe]

7. So, you're expecting one of the nominees to drop by then?

Because neither one is going to break 2,000 delegates I fear.

[KittyWampus]

2. It won't. The type of scenario you describe is not going to happen.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Why not?

Once there's a vote, and one candidate or the other gets 2,025 delegates, then I expect the other to STFU and endorse his/her rival. But until then, I expect both candidates to put up as much of a fight as they can.

[andyrowe]

5. Right now unless one of them drops out

neither one will reach that number. That's why I'm asking.

[gateley]

4. So... (my continuing education)

by "going to the floor" do you mean it's possible that at the convention, we really don't know who the nominee would be, and it would be decided that night?

Would that be because neither had the required number of delegates? If so, where does a "brokered convention" come in?

Has that ever happened before?

Man, what a trip this is!

Thanks! :hi:

[andyrowe]

6. Exactly. McGovern '72 is the history everyone fears is repeating.

He was agreed upon in a back room deal that cost our party dearly. If Obama is not the nominee even though he clearly garnered the most support, I fear it will happen again.

[gateley]

8. Thanks. (gulp). nt

[no name no slogan]

15. McGovern had the nomination sewn up after the CA primary

There was no floor fight or backroom "deal" in 1972. The backroom "deal" was a feint to make the Muskie/Humphrey/Jackson people think they could still run the convention. He purposefully threw a vote on a SC women's delegation to make the old line guys think they still had a chance.

Go read Hunter Thompson's "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail". He devotes about 20 pages to the whole floor vote.

[Johnny__Motown]

9. How big a lead? If she thinks she can win she will keep fighting.

I honestly hope that she loses Texas or Ohio and drops out right then and there. That would clearly be the best thing for our party and for the nation.

[andyrowe]

10. Any lead in all three of those numbers.

Will she still argue she deserves the nomination after all the votes are done and she's down in states, delegates and the popular vote.

I'm going to do my best here in Dayton to ensure she drops out March 5th.

[Bake]

20. Suppose she wins big in those states?

And overtakes Obama in delegates. How is THAT not the "best thing for the party?"

Bake

[andyrowe]

24. She will not win big in those states.

You can take that to the bank.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

11. If he wins all three...

then I bet the superdelegates will give him the nomination before it gets to the convention.

[andyrowe]

12. Even with the support of the super delegates he will not reach

the official number to automatically receive the nomination.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. Well, no...

but if all the delegates are in and all the superdelegates are in and Obama's the winner, then their ain't much she can do.

[andyrowe]

14. I hope you're right. n/t

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

17. Since we're talking hypotheticals...

imagine her running independent and splitting the vote.

[ieoeja]

22. Hillary would never bolt her party after losing at the conven...

Oops.

[andyrowe]

26. Bam!

:rofl:

[mohc]

16. The only real variables

Are the pledged delegate numbers. If Clinton has a lead at all, she will seat FL and MI, and win over enough superdelegates to win the nomination. If Obama leads comfortably, he'll choose to seat FL and MI in a show of reconciliation, and the superdelegates will not override the will of the people. If Obama has a smaller lead, things could get very interesting. If he leads by less than 111, it could get messy, as this is the delegate lead Clinton has in FL and MI. If he leads by more than 111, my guess is a deal will be reached where FL and MI will be seated in return for enough superdelegates supporting him to get the nomination. A floor fight is a genuine possibility with a lead under 111.

[andyrowe]

18. Thanks mohc. n/t

[Alhena]

19. Here's how I think it will play out ...

at some point this spring, Howard Dean will announce that it's politically imperative for the party to decide on a nominee soon. We simply can not have the chaos of a brokered convention, as Dean has gone on the record saying. He will call for a meeting of the uncommitted superdelegates where they will debate the merits of the nominees.

I fully expect that they will realize at that meeting that while Hillary has a strong campaign, Obama has a movement, and a movement like the party has not seen in many decades. They will realize that such a movement will completely overwhelm the Denver convention and that the Obama genie can not be put back in the bottle. They will also have the national polls showing Obama doing much better against McCain.

With all that in mind, I expect Pelosi will announce her support for Obama and most of the Democratic House members will follow suit. When it's clear that the Obama supporters have a majority, I expect that virtually all of the remaining superdelegates will likewise get on board in the name of unity.

Dean will announce that the uncommitted superdelegates have decided that Obama is our best candidate, and at that point it will be apparent to all that Hillary has lost. She will concede at that point.

[Indenturedebtor]

21. That's pretty much how I imagine it as well

Though if current trends continue her funds will dry up before it even goes that far.

[andyrowe]

27. She's far from broke.

I wonder how her donors will feel repaying her loan on a losing campaign.

[Az_lefty]

23. HRC will not give up, political power is everything to the Clintons...

remember the scorched earth policy? They invented it.

[andyrowe]

25. I don't know if they invented it, but they sure perfected it.

Will be glad to see our party turn the page.