Obama supporters: In which state is he the strongest - OH, TX or PA?

[RiverStone]

Hillary supporter James Carville said repeatedly tonight on Larry King that she must win all 3 states to have a realistic shot at the nomination.

Many pundits share his view - that being Hillary's fire wall is actually all 3 states.

QUESTION: Which of the 3 states does Obama have the BEST chance to win?

And if he takes 2 of the 3, its over --- Obama will be assured the nomination!

[TexasObserver]

1. Texas - he will win it.

Can't say about Pa and Ohio.

[peoli]

2. Ohio

[grantcart]

3. Texas

[yeswecan08]

4. Obama will win all three states

[Tatiana]

5. Texas.

I have never seen grassroots organization like Obama has in Texas.

And the thing is... it's 95% organic. By the time the staffers roll in to town, the people are already there, fired up and ready to go. I haven't seen anything like it - Austin, Abiline, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Arlington, Beaumont, Sugar Land, Longview.

He is taking the fight to her in one of her strongest cities (Houston), and I think he is winning.

I'm blown away. Even with three weeks in Texas, I don't think it's going to be enough to combat the overwhelming response of the people to Obama's message of change.

[NJSecularist]

9. People don't realize how tough it is to build a good organization in Texas

The state is absolutely friggin massive.

But Obama is doing a great job.

Texas is a state where whomever has the best organization will ultimately win.

[RiverStone]

29. found this...

Did a Google a found: http://blog.texansforobama.com/

Check all the local TX politicians that have already endorsed Barack - on right margin.

Yes - well organized and someone(s) sure is doing a great job managing his campaign!

[Arugula Latte]

11. Good to hear about the massive effort there.

It makes me feel better.

March 4 can't come soon enough...

[RiverStone]

19. Are you on the ground in TX Tatiana?

Sounds like it...

Please keep us posted and thanks for sharing such an enthusiastic TX report! :hi:

[Tatiana]

25. Briefly.

I will be heading back near the end of the month, hopefully. Houston and Galveston county are putting my beloved Dallas county to shame. My aunt (who could care less about politics) hosted a tea party for Obama (gotta love those southern social gatherings). This is someone who voted for Bush once and stayed home in the last election.

This is the type of stuff you'd have to see to believe.

[RiverStone]

28. Cool that you get to see it!

Really, Obama is a once in a generation candidate.

I have heard that Austin is the only really blue part of TX - lots of Shrub loving folks in other parts. But if your aunt can change - so can other Texans.

And with March 4th as the big day in TX, by the time you leave I bet you will have a real sense of how Obama may do --- enjoy your stay!


peace~:)

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

22. Thanks

Thanks for the info. All of us appreciate it, and the best news often comes from the people. Any info you can provide is more than coveted!

[jlake]

6. I think Texas. OH & PA Are Clinton country for sure.

[MadBadger]

12. Why do you say that?

[Alhena]

14. The closest poll I've seen has Clinton up 17 in Ohio, bigger in PA

not Obama country it would appear.

[RiverStone]

17. But trending in his direction...

Will he make up enough ground to catch up?

Not sure, but even a loss in PA or OH within 10% points is essentially an Obama victory.

That is, according to the delegate counters and map makers on the M$M...

[MadBadger]

18. Obamentum, remember that.

Also, wherever he campaigns...well you know the rest.

[NJSecularist]

16. Obama needs to make in-roads with low-income whites

if he wants to win Ohio.

He did a terrific job of bridging the gap in the Potomac primaries, but he still has work to do.

[NJSecularist]

7. Texas.

He has the best chance to win in Texas.

He can still win in Ohio, however. But he has a better chance in Texas.

[loveangelc]

8. If he takes 2 of the 3? IMO if even he takes 1 of the 3 it's over. theyve boxed themselves in.

which state is he going to do the best in? i have no idea...

[milkyway]

10. Barack will win them all, but Texas is more certain than Ohio. Texas delegates are apportioned

according to 2004 vote totals, when blacks had a high turnout and Latinos did not. Also a very strong ground game for Barack has developed there.

Barack will win Pennsylvania by 30 points. It's on April 22, and Hillary will drop out of the race on March 6.

[RiverStone]

15. Wow - I like your optimism and hope your right!

For the first time in the primaries, Obama won the Latino vote in VA.

I was concerned a couple of weeks ago that this would cost Obama Texas, but I think he has turned this trend around now.

It really is an amazing wave!

[Torgo Johnson]

13. Texas

I would love to say Ohio, but realistically Texas is by far his best bet.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

20. PA will probably follow Ohios lead

I live in a PA college area so obviously my locale will go for Obama. However, PA is a rust belt state, and I don't have a good sense of what the average Pennsylvanian is thinking. I predict that PA will follow Ohio's lead though.

[RiverStone]

23. Keep us posted...

Hearing the word on the street sure as hell beats the odds makers and talking heads on TV.

Let us know what ya see in PA :hi:

In particular, if you see obvious signs of the Obama wave moving through.

Thanks I Vote In Pittsburgh

[jackson_dem]

21. Ohio. PA votes near the end of April and we don't know what the dynamics of the race will be by then

Out of Ohio and Texas the former is his best bet because Texas is 35% Latino and he has struggled with Latinos nationally and in most states that have voted so far.

[NJSecularist]

27. Look at my thread I created today, jackson.

Texas will likely only have a 20-25% Latino turnout in their primary. That is based on 2004 Texas Primary Exit poll data.

I think we'll also see a 20-25% black turnout in Texas, which will help balance out the Latino vote.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. Texas

An ARG poll dated March 23, 2007 before the Clinton inevitablity surge had it Clinton 34/Obama 32. Obama has a very strong chance to win in Texas.

To me, Ohio is all but a lost cause with him 17 points down in the latest poll. Florida II. Texas, OTOH, is an awesome pickup chance and I don't give it to HRC just because of the latino vote. Who knows which way it'll break.

[NJSecularist]

26. Umm... not even close.

Ohio isn't a lost cause.

I looked at the internals of that Survey USA poll and Hillary was winning the white vote 62 to 33. There is absolutely no way that happens when Obama starts campaigning in Ohio next week.

Ohio is very much in play. It is going to lean Hillary, and Hillary might win it, but a state 4 weeks off is never a lost cause.

Within two weeks, Obama will have that state within 10%.

[Adelante]

30. I feel okay about Texas and Ohio both

He has a good chance. I don't know about Pennsylvania. I haven't spent time there in a few years now, but I wouldn't ever call it Obama country. But one thing we know this year: Things change.