This is just to share the primary vote statistics in FL, as it pertains to whether or not the Florida primary results were a valid basis for assigning deleagtes.
To make it clear: I was AGAINST the move by the state legislature that goaded the DNC into action, AGAINST the DNC's decision to disenfranchise me as punishment for events I had no control over, and am now AGAINST seating those delegates that resulted from the primary, mainly because it smacks to me of trying to sweep the whole ugly mess under the carpet and pretend it never happened.
But regardless of my views, regardless of whether the delegates are seated, regardless of the impact they may have, the question still needs to be answered: Was the Florida primary a fair representative sample?
All figures from here on are from the Division of Elections of the Florida Department of State:
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=1/29/2008&DATAMODE=In the Republican presidential primary (which DID count) there were
1,949,948 votes cast.
In the Democratic presidential primary (which DIDN'T) there were
1,749,920 votes cast.
Florida is a closed primary, so all those voting in each were registered for that party. Republican turnout surpassed Democratic turnout,
the opposite of results across the nation to date.Combined, that's a total of
3,699,438 votes in both presidential primaries.
The property tax amendment also on the ballot got a total of
2,667,543 votes in favor and
1,497,970 votes against, for a grand total of
4,165,513 votes.
4,165,513 - 3,699,438 = 466,075466,075 people who voted on the property tax amendment but didn't vote in the presidential primary. Granted, there's no way of knowing how many of those are Independents/Other parties BUT:
Florida has only 323,128 voters registered Independent or with other parties, out of a total registered population of
8,285,920. Approx.
1/25th of the voting population (a little less, actually.) Assuming that percentage holds true for the primary turnout, only
18,000 or so of the primary non-votes would be attributable to those.SO:466,075 - ~18,000 = ~448,000 voters registered either as Republicans or Democrats who voted on the amendment but didn't vote in the primary. Since the Republican primary was, at that point, very much up in the air and the primary votes counted for delegates at the RNC convention, I'd say it's reasonable to conclude that the majority of those votes were Democrats who didn't bother to vote, knowing as we did that our delegates were ineligible.
To clarify on Florida's voting machines: The FIRST screen that came up was the presidential primary choice. You'd have to consciously skip it to vote on the amendment and not in the primary.
Now, I'm not maintaining that all those votes were Obama votes. That would be a completely unsubstantiated supposition. What I AM saying is that
Hillary's vote total was 870,986 and Obama's was 576,214. 448,000 votes is over 50% of Hillary's total votes in Florida and 80% of Obama's.Nobody can say where those votes would have gone. Nobody can say what percentages they'd break at. Nobody can say how things might have been affected by campaigning in the state. Nobody knows how many Democrats stayed home.
At this point, there are TOO MANY unknowns for Florida's primary results to be used as a basis for assigning delegates.I'd hope supporters of both candidates can see that.
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