Why Hillary Should not "Give Up" and we should not give up on her!

[susankh4]

Excellent demographic analysis here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/the_democratic_race_moving_for.html

"In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton's losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week."

[sueragingroz]

1. I think that she has a tough row to hoe... but I will support her to the end... /nt

[earthlover]

2. "Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week."

A larger problem for her is that Obama has eaten into some of the demographics that have been Hillary's. He won among women in Virginia. He won every economic group. He won Latinos. He won seniors.

Wisconsin has demographics that would favor Hillary. We'll see what excuses the Hillary campaign has when Obama sweeps through WI....

[susankh4]

3. You did not read (or maybe you did not understand) the analysis

The demographer is stating that there is no statistically significant, detectable change. And he is correct when all variables are accounted for. "Momentum" cannot be proven.

Yes, we will see what happens in Wisconsin. Won't we? And in Texas. And in Ohio.

but, it is not time to write Hillary off. And that is the point of the science.

[aquarius dawning]

4. It's not about making excusues. it's about staying in until it's over. there's no reason to quit

That may not be the case after March 4th but until then, why not stay in? She has added 135,000 donors and has raised something like $13 million since super Tuesday. Clearly she has support left. Furthermore, there are 577 delegates up for grabs in Ohio, Texas, and pennsylvania, that can easily rsult into a number of favorable scenarios for Hillary. It could also spell utter doom of course but we won't know until March 5th so I guess we're gonna have to wait it out and see.

[Jamastiene]

5. Until the bitter end.

I am in with Hillary as far as she will go in this. Long Live Hillary.

[aquarius dawning]

10. Bitter indeed.

Please remember, in a worst case scenario, I and many other men supported her as much as most women and more than a lot.

[Jamastiene]

23. Many great guys do support her.

Then there are those other types. Don't get me started on them.

[harun]

6. Hillary is damaging our chances in Nov, more and more the longer

she denies the inevitable.

Barack's win's in purple, Hillary's in pink:



You really think she should be the nominee with those results?

[robbedvoter]

7. "our"? Acres vs people? I remember freepers had T-shorts like that in 2000, for W's "wins"

[aquarius dawning]

8. Oh now, all we have heard for the past month is how inevitable it is that BO will beat the Repugs.

So too fucking bad.

[susankh4]

12. You don't know your history very well...

"inevitability" is now Baracks cross to bear. And it will not bode well for him in Ohio. We don't like to be told we aren't making a difference. We tend to lash out when we hear this kind of talk.

[harun]

16. If Barack wins OH and TX do you think Hillary should drop out? (n/t)

[susankh4]

17. Sure.

And of course she will.

[harun]

18. Ok, if she wins either one and decides to stay in it I am ok with that

[Marrah_G]

15. Absolutely- and the race is not over yet.

[BlackVelvet04]

19. That's just too stinking bad,

Obama's inexperience hurts "our" chances in November.

[harun]

21. When people want change experience is a liability (n/t)

[BlackVelvet04]

22. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. n/t

[earthlover]

26. It's also too stinking bad Hillary's experience hurts "our" chances in November!

Hillary can't use the experience arguement against McCain. McCain would laugh!

Hillary can't use McCain's support for the Iraq War against him either, because she blundered into voting for the IWR. If she uses Iraq as an issue, she will invite the flip flop charge, and rightly so.

The way to beat McCain is to win over the independents. Who has more appeal with independents? You guessed it, Obama.

Hillary could have beaten Romney or Huckabee. But McCain? I don't think she has a chance in hell. A vote for Hillary is a vote for McCain.

[susankh4]

30. I heartily disagree....

McCain will be plenty attractive to many of Hillary's people. They are both moderates. And we know what their records look like. (Unlike Obama who has no record.)

So, yes Obama may draw some anti-war republicans. But he may also lose many of Hillary's working class voters who have sons in the military.

It's a wash.

Not to mention that McCain is already laughing about Barack's inexperience with matters related to Iraq, Iran, Pakistan..... while all the while Bush is leading up to some executions at Gitmo.... and adding Air Martials to international flights. Can't you see the "he's dangerous, he doesn't understand the war" theme rolling against Obama?

To top it off... McCain made a point of telling us(today)that he will not cave to religious conservatives. Now why do you suppose he said that? To score points within *his* party?

Nosiree. He is waiting for the Dem fallout when Hillary loses. He is expecting... let's see... Fla, NM, AR all to fall easily within his grasp.

[susankh4]

31. Ooops... I mis-spoke

McCain says he won't pander to conservatives. Period. No "religious" qualifier. Except that it was aimed at the question of why Huckabee is still in the race. http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080214/NATION/437382070/1001

Now... who else is he telling this to? Maybe his latino voter block?? He figures Hillary's latino voters will move to him if/when she is out of the race. And, ya know... he's probably right. He did co-sponsor an immigration reform bill that they like. See: http://nuestravoice.com/?p=1425

McCain is a little sharper than alot of us give him credit for....

[earthlover]

32. Well, I heartily disagree with you too!

I don't think many of Hillary's people are so low as to go Republican rather than to vote for a black man. Maybe some are that low, but I think most of hillary's people are good solid Democrats who will vote for the party's nominee. I think you owe hillary's supporters an apology for implying that they will vote for McCain. I give them more credit than you do, obviously.

The the key dynamic is not hillary supporters (remember, the world does not revolve around them) but, rather, independents. McCain has appeal to independents. With hillary as the nominee, McCain will get the independent vote. With Obama as the nominee, Obama gets it. Polls indicate this, it is not just me.

Hillary has based her campaign on experience. This won't fly against McCain. McCain has more experience than Hillary! Hillary will have to reinvent her campaign to run against McCain. And he could use quotes about experience from Hillary to prove his point!

With Obama, he has shown that he can win against a candidate who has made experience the big issue. So...if he can beat Hillary (who has lived and died on experience) he can beat McCain too. Obama could be able to even more so than with Hillary paint McCain as the old fashioned old way of doing things. Heck, he even looks old. Which would be to Obama's advantage.

Obama could crucify McCain on iraq. The hundred years thing. All the Iraq cheerleading. Hillary couldn't do this because she was as dumb as Bush and McCain in supporting the iwr! But Obama can stick this issue up McCain's ass. Sorry, but I am still pissed off that thousands and thousands and thousands of people have died because of hillary's and mccain's and bush's war. Maybe some don't think all these lost lives mean anything, maybe they just had to die for politics. But, in any case, Obama is the only candidate who can campaign on Iraq.

There won't be any Democratic fallout when Hillary loses. I know some dumb clucks will be like nader and cry themselves into hissyfits and then not support the Democratic Party...but these are people who won't vote anyway because they reside in mental hospitals. The Democratic Party will be united behind the nominee, as long as it reflects the votes of the democratic voters.

Obama will be the strongest with the independents. The Democrats do not have enough votes to win. Neither do the Republicans. Both sides need the independents. Obama appeals to independents more than Hillary. enough said.

[susankh4]

33. Are there no "Soft Democrats"?

Is that what you are suggesting? Only "soft republicans" that can be wooed to Obama? Dream on.

And, I doubt it has as much to do with race as with age.

[earthlover]

35. you have failed to show why hillary will win more votes against McCain than Obama

Or to refute my points why Obama would do better against mcCain

[susankh4]

36. I did not say she would win more...

And I did not try to refute your reasons why Barack would take some votes that she could not.

My point was... it will be a wash. Either candidate will take some votes that they other will not.

Both of them together now..... could avoid most of those losses, IMO. We will see if the two of them have the majority to act for the good of the party and run together. Just as their oft invoked predecessors, JFK & LBJ did.

[oasis]

37. Hillary is the better candidate of the two. She believes it's her duty as a patriot

to remain in the race. And so do I.

[miceelf]

9. so.....

She's NOT the underdog, then?

[susankh4]

13. It's all in the perception of the voters

and the MSM.

[Tennessee Gal]

11. With Hillary all the way!

[Orsino]

14. I rooted for Kucinich, Edwards and Obama when they were much further behind than Hillary is now.

Her supporters have no reason to quit now. The nomination is still up for grabs, as much as I would like to see Obama clinch it.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

20. Hillary ALL THEY WAY !

[libbygurl]

24. Not giving up at all here. Hillary all the way! nt

[Blue State Blues]

25. I hope she stays in all the way to the Convention!

For the first time ever, I was able to vote in a Primary that actually mattered! And I didn't have to move to Iowa or New Hampshire to do it.

I hope that this "dead heat" continues all the way to the end because it gets more voters meaningfully involved and I think it will keep turnout high. Voters who care enough to vote in Primaries are less likely to sit on their hands in the GE.

[Beausoir]

27. I don't understand all this handwringing. She's going to win. I absolutely believe that.

She is in this to win. She will not back down.

[susankh4]

29. She just took New Mexico!

CNN declares.

[HeraldSquare212]

28. The analysis also says neither candidate has an advantage in the coming states.

It also assumes that the changes in demographic outcomes in Virginia and Maryland won't carry over to places like Ohio and Pennsylvania - we'll see about that.

At best, the analysis suggests Clinton can't get the lead back; at worst, if the assumption about Virigina and Maryland is incorrect, it suggests she will lose most of the coming states.

[susankh4]

34. Yes, it does....

And because these candidates are quite even matched for delegates now.... it would be crazy for either of them to drop out of the race.

That is the point.