Zogby Polls are WRONG and here's why....folks and Clinton will win

[ElsewheresDaughter]

Obama is still a political unknown. He is undefined. His negatives--- Like those of McCain, Clinton or even Huckabee--- have yet to really be examined because the Democratic primary race has been a referendum on Clinton moreso than a real comparison of the two candidates and their policies.

<b>The more Americans get to know about Obama's policies, rather than his "rock star" image, the higher his negatives will climb and the more his support amongst independents will drop.</b>

What you see with these polls is Obama's ceiling. His positives will not stay so high as the race narrows to two people and more focus can be spent on JUST him and McCain, rather than Huckabee and Clinton (and Romney and Edwards) as it has been for the past several months. His negatives can climb.

On the other end, Clinton's support right now are her floor. The people that "hate" her (for whatever irrational reason fuelled by Conservative media), have already solidified opinions of her. Her negatives are unlikely to go up, because there is nothing new to dislike her for. Her positives would likely go up once she is the presumptive nominee and Democrats are faced with a choice of Clinton or McCain.



Also, this statement shows the reliability of this survey:

"The online survey shows that Obama would defeat both McCain and Huckabee, while Clinton would lose to McCain and only defeat Huckabee by a small margin."

Again, we are all well aware that Obama's support is highest amongst young people, college educated people and the upper class--- All demographics that spend significant time on the internet.

Working class, middle-age and the elderly are Clinton's base, and they spend less time on the internet than Obama's demographics.

[Avalux]

1. I think at this point we can say typical political models don't apply.

How to take the pulse of a movement? Impossible. You are assuming Obama has a ceiling - prove it.

[RiverStone]

16. This should be a mantra for Obama supporters...

Yep, nothing typical about this race.

I don't see a ceiling...:hi:

[SharonAnn]

30. As a blank slate, people paint what they want on the image of Obama.

It has nothing to do with who he really is, what he has done, or what his policies are.

They just "imagine" that he is their perfect candidate.

[Avalux]

32. Obama is not a blank slate. Where have you been?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4578207&mesg_id=4578207

Enjoy!!! :hi:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

34. he most certainly is....never even heard of the man before he read a Ted Sorensen speech in Boston

and nothing after until he became a Senator 2 yrs ago...he served 1 friggen yr and has been absent for this entire year out on the stump


Who does that other than someone the corporations want to do their bidding...where did all that money come from to put him where he is today?

think about it!

what other UNKNOWN rises that FAST to these heights???

Why do you think he likes reagan and called "the GOP the party of ideas"??

Please, use your minds folks

[saltpoint]

2. Zogby notwithstanding, Barack Obama is the political story of the hour,

and there's a good chance it's going to be extended for well more than just the hour and on into November.

The people showing up to cast votes for the man make a very convincing poll.

[islandmkl]

3. every poll that i disagree with is wrong...

whereas, every poll is agree with is right....regardless of how things turn out.

[Renew Deal]

4. Hillary will never be president.

She has 0 chance of beating McCain, especially when you consider that she's getting creamed by Obama.

[Hepburn]

9. IMO, if we nominate Hillary, we are commiting suicide by election.

She will NEVER beat McCain.

Look, this is NOT scientific or anything, but I have been involved in politics since I was in the 6th grade and snuck out behind the backs of my totally GOP parents to work for JFK. I am a politics junkie and I have been through a lot of national elections and at the point in time, I think I do have a feel for what is going on around me.

Of my gal pals, who all but one are Dems and of those Dems most are on the liberal side, only one of us likes Hillary and this one is conflicted about voting for her. All the rest of us Dems intensely dislike her. And we are all coming from different places and different levels of education, from GED HS diploma only to doctorate am masters degrees. The only thing we all have in common is that we all are over age 55, white, and female.

Of the lonely Repubbie in our midst, she intensely dislikes Hillary to the point of hate..and is not real favorable about Obama, but does not hate him or dislike him. However, she cannot stand McCain and voted for Romney in the Calif primary. As of late, in our coffee get togethers, she has listened intently to the discussions about Obama. If it is a McCain v. Hillary battle in the fall, she will vote for McCain. If it is McCain v. Obama, she is undecided at this point. At least there is hope there.

With the dicussions we have been having, this is the general situation that most of us have encountered outside our little group as well.

Again, this is nothing scientific, but what I am seeing is consistent with what is being reported nationally ~~ Hillary is losing her base of white females. There has been a change over the months and those who started out at least nuetral about her, now dislike her. There are various reasons for this, but all do in some manner state that they do not believe she has a chance in hell of beating McCain.

JMHO

[GodlessBiker]

14. I agree.

[Exultant Democracy]

23. I was talking on the phone with my mother, a life long democrat.

I was amazed when she told me that if it comes down to Clinton v McCain she she would be voting McCain.

[WilyWondr]

26. Why?

I hear posts like yours almost everyday here on DU and would really like to know what would drive any Dem to vote for mccain? What in mccain's platform does she agree with?

[Exultant Democracy]

27. I think for the most part it is an anti-DLC vote she thinks that the DLC need to get beat bad

or else the Democrats will continue to be the left-wing of the Republican Party.

[nonconformist]

39. And I have life long Democrats in my family that have said if Obama is the nominee...

They would probably vote for McCain.

Anecdotal evidence is just that.

[Yael]

5. Has Hillary been able to capture more than 40% of any contest since 2/5?

Just sayin'

[Independent-Voter]

11. Nope - she's only won one state by more than 60%: Arkansas

Meanwhile, Obama has kicked her ass by at least 60% in damn near every state he's won in.

[flor de jasmim]

6. Are these recent quotes?

I thought I read something like this a few months ago, and it certainly doesn't take into account the number of new (young and old) voters finding a reason to participate in this election cycle. Morever, as candidates find out, there IS NO FLOOR. At any moment something (even said in jest) can sink a campaign.

[stahbrett]

7. Half of the country dislikes her - I'd hope her negatives wouldn't go higher! (eom)

[Thrill]

8. The opposite seems to be true

the more they get to know him and see him. His numbers go up. He's started 20 points down in almost every state

[ElboRuum]

10. Young voters, first and second timers...

...WILL be the deciding factor in the general election and in the primaries. And it should be noted that ALL demographics are spending more time on the internet and using it more as a first choice or a solid second choice for news and political opinion.

Teh Internets Tubes isn't jes for the young'uns anymore.

[Benhurst]

12. "Obama is still a political unknown. He is undefined." And he shall

remain so until he is nominated, then the corporate press and KKKarl will go after him.

Think of John Kerry saluting the Democratic Convention in 2004, thinking his heroic record in Vietnam would be a plus running against AWOL Bush. Then remember what happened.

Fasten your seat belts! It's going to be a bumpy campaign.

[jmg257]

13. When is all this "enlightenment" going to happen? The race is almost over and she is almost done.

His wins have been by larger and larger margins. Yes there ARE states left, but are there enough - is there enough time - to fix her failing campaign?

[Yossariant]

15. James Zogby is an Obama superdelegate. Zogby had him up by 13 on the days of the NH and CA primaries

And we know how well those predictions turned out. :evilgrin:

Zogby is nothing more than an Obama shill.

I am not letting them jam this untried, cheap, opportunistic celebrity down my throat -- for President?!

:puke:

[Garbo 2004]

28. John Zogby is the pollster. n/t

[Yossariant]

36. James Zogby is a senior analyst for Zogby International.

[Garbo 2004]

43. In his brother John's company in addition to many other activities, as you no doubt already know. nt

[Arkansas Granny]

17. Even if you don't take the poll numbers into account, there may

be another problem with the current level of support shown for Obama. Much of his support is from young people and they typically don't vote in the same numbers that middle aged or older people do. They have been there for the primaries, but that doesn't mean that they will be voting in the GE.

-----

<snip>
In an October CBS News/New York Times Poll, just 58 percent of Americans under 30 said they were registered to vote. Ninety-three percent of those over 65 were. Thirty is a dividing line, it seems. Among those 30 to 44, 87 percent reported being registered. (Self-reported registration rates in polls are usually higher than they really are. Some of that disparity is because many of the unregistered are not reached by household polling -- like non-English speakers, and people who live in institutions -- and some of it is because saying you are registered is socially desirable.)

However, two-thirds of the under-30s in our last poll admitted they hadn’t voted in 2004, though more than two-thirds of them had been old enough to vote in 2004. Only 17 percent were sure that they would participate in a primary in 2008.
<snip>
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/05/opinion/pollpositions/main3577733.shtml
------

Also, when you consider the average of several polls, there just isn't much distance between the two candidates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html


IMO, it's too early for either candidate to consider that the nomination is settled.

[RaleighNCDUer]

29. You've got that backwards --

Those that turn out for primaries are those who are motivated to turn out for the GE. It is the older, less motivated voter that turns out in the GE in greater numbers than in the primaries.

The result is the same - that there is a higher proportion of older voters to younger voters in the GE. However, Obama has been brining them out for the primary in record numbers - they WILL vote in the GE if Obama is the nominee. If he is not, that might be a different story.

[Atman]

18. I just don't buy into your assumptions.

First of all, when you use phrases such as "The people that "hate" her (for whatever irrational reason fuelled by Conservative media),..." it loses a lot of us "haters," (if by haters, I assume you mean those of us who do not believe Hillary Clinton would be best for the country at this time). It makes it painfully obvious that it is in fact you who appear to have made up her mind and won't be swayed.

But okay, -- your opinion is well written and clear. But it is also condescending and presupposes that people who support Obama are just too dumb to realize what is happening to us. I cast my absentee ballot for John Edwards literally the day before he announced he was suspending his campaign. Obama was not my first choice, in part because of some of the issues Clinton's supporters think none of us realize. But I think the so-called skeletons in Obama's closet, which btw, are about as secret as who leaked Valerie Plame's name, are trivial compared to what an Obama presidency would mean for the national psyche.

We're a bruised and battered nation at the moment, thanks in large part to the policies of not just George Bush, but of Bill Clinton, too, and Hillary Clinton's apparent lack of judgement in dealing with W's demands. Regardless of how wonderful things may have been (or appeared to be) during Bill Clinton's term, things suck now, and people don't want to just throw slipcovers on the futon, they need a whole-house makeover.

Put another way; I am far less concerned about what I don't know about Obama than about what I do know about Clinton.

.

[loyalsister]

19. Obama's ground up personal campaigning is not measured

He is running a meet the people campaign. People trust him because he is specific about everyday things that matter to people. He is willing to spend real time with them.
Hillary sends out impersonal generic messages that are supposed to be molded into anyone's life.

[rock]

20. I tend to agree with your analysis

In any case, we shall see.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

24. yes we will...fasten your seatbelts

[Triana]

21. By the time we find Obama's negatives he will already have been elected...

..and whatever they are, we'll be stuck with them.

[Occam Bandage]

22. Hillary still hasn't found them yet? She dug so deep on him she brought up Kindergarten essays.

[blm]

25. The Closed Government Wing of the party Hillary needs is shrinking.

And the gullible base isn't as gullible as it once was for Clintons.

Hang onto your hats, Bush-Clinton-Bush protectors, because Open Government WILL prevail. I hope you decide to support it when it does.

[PetraPooh]

31. I question how you come to determine where the floor or the ceiling

for each candidate is. Just cuz you say so? I see Hill as being well-known for a reasonably long time, so I would conclude that she is at the ceiling of her popularity; whereas less is known about Obama indicating the floor of his potential popularity. I think you have this completely backwards, and I doubt it will sway any anti-Clinton voters or excite any pro-Clinton worriers.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

38. I'm sure you do!

[PetraPooh]

44. So you are unable to give an explanation as to your evaluation? Hmmm...

[robbedvoter]

33. Zogby blew it on california & NH - he always takes sides in elections. It was Dean

in 2004, and he was openly bashing Clark in his comments...

[oasis]

35. Voters will tire of "Mr.Magnificent" before it's too late. Don't worry. (eom)

[Capn Sunshine]

37. So then , good news for War and status quo

Because that's the wing that Hillary represents.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

40. aye....me thinks yer be in dire need of one of these capt'n....

[Hawkeye-X]

41. Wasn't Zogby for Clinton?

Come on.. you can do better than that....

[high density]

42. Polls are a snapshot in time. They're not a predictor.

The problem with Clinton is that many people (in the high forty percent area according to some polls) hate her already. At least fifteen years worth of hate. Obama may suffer the same fate over the course of the campaign, but nobody knows. I think there are plenty of other metrics on which these candidates can be judged beyond "which one do the Republicans hate the least?" When I caucused last weekend I heard very little talk about "electablity."