Rasmussen Wisconsin poll Obama 47, Clinton 43

[jezebel]

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary

This telephone survey of 855 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The Democratic Presidential Primary in Wisconsin may be the most competitive contest between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton since Super Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with a narrow four-point advantage over Clinton, 47% to 43%. Nearly one-fourth of the voters say there’s a good chance they might change their mind. Five percent (5%) of those who currently support Obama and Clinton say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by twenty-three points among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.

A strong showing by Clinton would be a welcome dose of good news for her campaign.

[SoFlaJet]

1. but but but but

it's just a Rasmussen poll-EVERYONE knows it's pro-Obama

[MadBadger]

2. Its not this close.

[Bullet1987]

3. I disagree Hnmnf...I think Wisconsin will be pretty close

I don't expect I blowout there.

[MadBadger]

4. Maybe Its just my view in Planet Madison (as some Repukes like to call it)

He will blow her out in Madison, and that is a democratic stronghold. He got fantastic press by the papers four his tour of Wisconsin yesterday in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and he will be back on friday to go to three more cities. I think the way he is campaigning is very favorable to him and will end up winning by at least 15.

[Zynx]

15. I think he wins Dane county 60-40, but she will probably do well up in NW Wisconsin

and also probably in the Brown County area. There are a lot of Democratic votes in the counties around Milwaukee too. Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties put together have more Democratic votes than the City of Madison proper.

[BadgerLaw2010]

29. Don't ever think Madison is representative of the entire state. It isn't.

If it was, Democrats would win this state by 30 in the general election.

Do you even live in this state? Or if you do, go outside of Madison?

[rodeodance]

7. Bill Clinton in Madison Today--Chelsea has made 4 stops so far. Ads runing

in major markets (health care)

[NJSecularist]

8. Obama is already there.

If Hillary wants to bridge the gap, she's going to have to go their herself instead of sending her surrogates and Bill and Chelsea.

[WilyWondr]

22. Heard this morning

that the people running the election in Milwaukee are expecting over 150,000 voters in Milwaukee. I don't think there are enough people in the north of the state to counter this number.

Too many people in Milwaukee, Madison, Racine, Janesville

[BadgerLaw2010]

32. You are assuming that all Milwaukee voters are Obama voters. That's not true.

Milwaukee county has a rather large blue collar population, which you would know if you actually, you know, lived there. Janesville is pretty much entirely blue collar, as is Racine outside of Loop commuters.

[jezebel]

5. I hope it's not this close. I don't want Clinton to lose by a few then claim comeback momentum NT

[jackson_dem]

14. It might close more

Hill does best with those who decide on the last day. ;)

[NJSecularist]

6. If people are expecting an Obama blowout, they'll be dissapointed

When it is all said and done, I expect Obama to win Wisconsin by 5 points.

But that is a breakthrough for him. Obama is very much like Ohio. A good showing in Wisconsin is a precursor for good things to come in Ohio.

[bigtree]

9. If Clinton stays this close it'll take the wind out of Obama's expectations there

Three visits now scheduled by Hillary Clinton for Wisconsin

[rodeodance]

13. yes. And i read that Obama not showing up for debate did not sit well with many

Wisconsinites

[NJSecularist]

16. I also read that Hillary not showing up in Wisconsin has not sit well with many

Wisconsinites.

[rodeodance]

20. that is true also. But she will be here Saturday.

[NJSecularist]

21. Obama has been there since Tuesday

And I ultimately think that will be the tipping point.

How can you say you care about a specific state if you don't show up until 3 days before the primary?

[rodeodance]

24. My point is--she has not dismissed WI.

[NJSecularist]

25. She hasn't dismissed it entirely, but she has dismissed its importance

[samrock]

10. Good..

I read where Hillary plans to spend 3 days up there.. be nice if she could end up winning this.. with a 2 week break in the primary calander upcoming a win would freeze the process until March 4th, when she can totally reverse momentum..

[Tatiana]

11. And this is why Clinton's campaign strategy is so bad.

That's not a huge lead for Obama at all. She should be in Wisconsin, fighting to win that state.

[MadBadger]

12. Hillary Clinton's Strategy is Getting Awful Press in Wisconsin. Take a look:

http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/272477

Guess we don't count for much in New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's eyes.

The Democratic presidential contender, after going 0-8 in recent primaries and caucuses, has a new "Path to the Nomination" strategy that is sketched out in a memo authored by her chief campaign planner.

But Democratic strategist Tom Penn's memo fails to mention Wisconsin's Feb. 19 primary.

Instead, it declares: "Change begins March 4."

That's the day when Texas and Ohio vote in primaries that have drawn Clinton away from Wisconsin for much of this critical pre-primary week.

We don't mean to rain on Penn's parade, but Wisconsinites will make choices on Feb. 19 that send a powerful signal with regard to the long-term viability of Clinton's candidacy. She and her aides should be taking the Badger State's primary seriously.

Polls suggest that she now trails here. Some of that has to do with Barack Obama's smart organizing and campaigning. But Clinton would undoubtedly be doing better if she was trying harder.

[Zynx]

17. Writing off Wisconsin is a terrible move on her part.

[rodeodance]

19. What a silly thing to say. She has not written off WI and you know better than to say that.

[WilyWondr]

23. Has she been here and no one knew?

How do you think she has not written WI off? She went to TX and has not even set foot in WI yet this primary season and the primary is 5 days away.

You are fooling yourself if you do not see that she has written WI off.

[rodeodance]

18. "So, who is really neglecting Wisconsin? Why won't he debate here? "

I approve of this message!



Thu. Feb. 14, 2008 9:24 am

Sue says:

Hillary Clinton has committed to a debate in Milwaukee. So far, Obama has not. So, who is really neglecting Wisconsin? Why won't he debate here?

http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/272477

[BadgerLaw2010]

27. You consider a Cap Times *editorial* as Wisconsin press? You must not be from here.

The Cap Times as a paper isn't liked much outside of Madison, let alone the editorial page.

[MadBadger]

30. You want something outside of Madison? Look at the press she is missing

By not being here. He is the one getting great press, like this glowing article that has been the top story on jsonline.com

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=718195

[BadgerLaw2010]

31. That's fine, but you posted an editorial flame from a local paper as "Wisconsin press"

If you think anyone outside of Madison cares about the Cap Times editorial board, you are delusional or highly ignorant of the state.

[BadgerLaw2010]

26. +/- 4 at 47-43 means they are tied. And that the poll isn't much good, but that's something else.

[Straight Shooter]

28. Statistically speaking, they are tied. Yes.

The veracity of Rasmussen polls has long been a subject of debate, but I think they're tracking better than they were in election 2004.

[scotch22]

33. hey, Hillary is catching up!

Last check I believe she was down 10 there. She may yet mount a comeback!

[book_worm]

34. different poll--PPP had her down by 11. I think this is the first Ras WI poll.

but we don't take it for granted.