Real story.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

In the general election, it's not about independents and it's not plain old poll numbers. It's turnout.

All things being equal:

Hillary equals moderate D turnout, and huge R turnout.
Barack equals big D turnout, and moderate to low R turnout.

Hillary makes registered R voters into likely R voters and likely R voters into actual voters.
Barack makes registered D voters into likely D voters and likely D voters into actual D voters.

A hypothetical 50-50 opinion poll between McCain and Hillary equals a 7-10% McCain win.
A hypothetical 50-50 poll of likely voters between them equals a 3-4% McCain win.

Now Barack...same scenarios equal wins for Barak over McCain by nice margins.

Who you like is not the only factor...it's how much you like them. Is the R base going to drive through bad weather, stand in line, take off work, get sitters, miss a golf game to come out for McCain en mass? Not unless Hillary is his opponent.

Is the D base going to turnout for Barack? You bet. No matter what.

[maddiejoan]

1. Barack has yet to guarantee my vote

If he's the nominee, he's going to have to earn it, not assume he has it.

[Vinca]

3. As a true member of the cult, I will vote for Hillary if she's the nominee.

I will not enable war.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

4. The assumption isn't his. it's mine, and about most D voters--not you specifically. Obviously.

I suppose there must be some Ds who'd rather McCain win, after all. I just don't think there will be too many.

[maddiejoan]

7. It's not a matter of whether or not McCain wins

I live in NY.

It's going D no matter what.

whether I vote or I don't vote --the Democratic nominee will win NY State.

the question is -- whether or not I will vote for Obama.

If he wants it -- he can damned well earn it.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

8. gotcha...

by the way...this isn't the same a predicting who'd be a better president. That's a separate argument. The OP was only about what I thought would happen in the general election

[dchill]

2. First of all...

it's Barack, not Barak. Second, you're very probably right.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. thanks, dchill for catching the unforgivable.

[babylonsister]

5. I think you have that just about right. Yes we can! nt

[Independent-Voter]

9. I buy that. Obama will bring out the Dems in droves, as well as Indys and moderate Pubs

that are just sick of the same old shit. Hillary would get her ass kicked.