Rasmussen daily graph for 2/14/08 - Clinton down 4 (37), Obama up 3 (49)

[DavidDvorkin]

Now, this really is a surge.

These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Gallup now has a daily tracking poll graph: http://www.gallup.com/poll/104107/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[nickn777]

1. This is good news but....

The more important poll is the one from Ohio with Obama still down 51-37. This national poll seems like too large a lead considering HRC has large leads in Ohio and Texas polls, and she is also competitive in Wisconsin, only down 4.

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Quite true

We'll see what happens in those states during the coming days.

Perhaps there are tracking polls being published for them. One thing that frustrates me about the state polls is that they tend to show up at intervals, even as long as a month, and often from different polling companies. It's hard to track the numbers daily, so it's hard to know what's happening, or if anything is changing.

[Alhena]

3. Rasmussen Nevada poll - Obama crushes McCain, Hillary loses

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_general

Looking ahead to November 2008, Barack Obama has a twelve-point lead over John McCain in a general election match-up. Obama attracts 50% of the vote while McCain earns 38%.

At the same time, McCain has a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 40%.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Similar in Colorado

Different margins, but a similar message: Obama wins Colorado easily over McCain, but McCain crushes Clinton here.

Electability is certainly a factor in my choice of a candidate.

[Alexander]

13. Washington state had a similar poll.

Me, I'd like the next nominee to carry some more western states. I think we know who will do that.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Kick

I'm surging this post.

[jenmito]

6. K&R for the double-digit lead!

:kick:

[Pab Sungenis]

7. I think today is an outlier.

It's too fast a swing. It will smooth out in the next poll, probably.

Besides, national polls mean nothing. State polls mean everything. What are the numbers in Ohio and Texas? Are either of them within the 15 point gap?

[Patsy Stone]

9. Best sig pic ever?

Oh, yes. :thumbsup:

[Pab Sungenis]

15. "What kind of Huckabee is this?"

Thank you.

[Patsy Stone]

16. ...

:spray:

You owe me a keyboard.

[slick8790]

10. Ras is a tracking poll, IIRC.

I think they average the previous 3 or 4 days polling to get the current day's number. Or I could be totally wrong. :)

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Correct

So one day can influence the number, but it would have to be one heck of an outlier to have that great an effect.

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. Team Clinton: It's just a flesh wound

[New Dawn]

11. K&R - nail the coffin shut!

[TexasObserver]

12. It's turning into a rout, and it should be.