Obama ends with a marginal lead in pledged delegates, Hillary leads the popular vote, where should

[tritsofme]

the superdelegates break?

The reverse of this situation seems somewhat less likely, but the same principle holds.

If Obama leads by some 100 or so pledged delegates and Hillary has a marked lead in the overall popular vote, and neither has a clear majority of delegates on the floor, is there any good argument that pledged delegates determined by arcane and complicated rules are more representative than the actual popular vote totals from throughout the entire primary?

Obviously if either candidate walks into the convention with a pledged delegate and popular vote lead it would be no contest.

[Enrique]

1. they should go by the party's rules

[tritsofme]

3. Party rules say superdelegates can vote for anybody they want.

However in this close of a contest, they should try to determine the will of the voters.

[angie_love]

2. Obama leads the popular vote too even including MI and FL

[tritsofme]

4. I'm talking about the end of the day.

There are many big states outstanding.

[babylonsister]

5. Obama Leads In The Total Popular Vote — Even With Florida And Michigan

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/obama_leads_in_the_total_popul.php

Obama Leads In The Total Popular Vote — Even With Florida And Michigan
By Eric Kleefeld - February 13, 2008, 5:53PM

An interesting statistic coming out of the Potomac Primary: Not only is Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in the total popular vote for the primaries and caucuses so far, but he's ahead even if you factor in Florida, which wasn't contested, and Michigan, where his name wasn't even on the ballot.

Here are the numbers from NBC News:

States Awarding Delegates

Total Vote %
Obama 9,373,334 50%
Clinton 8,674,779 46%
Others 726,095 4%

With Florida
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 49%
Clinton 9,531,987 46%
Others 984,236 4%

With Florida and Michigan
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 47%
Clinton 9,860,138 47%
Others 1,249,922 6%

Notice that Obama's lead holds even without counting the "Uncommitted" votes in Michigan into his column — when in fact, the Uncommitted campaign was waged by supporters of his and to a lesser extent John Edwards.

Hillary Clinton could still retake the national popular lead with strong victories in Ohio and Texas, two very large states. But even then, there would be more contests on the calendar where Obama is favored to win, leaving Obama a good chance at the vote lead when all the contests are finally over.

With stats like these, one would almost think he's become the frontrunner...

[RiverStone]

14. Your so good about keeping track of this!

I expect that after next Tuesday's WI and HI vote, his totals will look even more impressive.

Thank You sister! :hi:

[anamandujano]

6. Check mate! and thank you. Rec.

[Coexist]

13. what checkmate? the OP is a scenario, not the truth, Obama leads both.

[JimGinPA]

7. Thunderdome!!!

Two men enter (or in this case one man & shrill _____) One man leaves for the Whitehouse!

[DS1]

11. go on. say bitch.

you know you want to.

[JimGinPA]

20. I Would...

But my wife (another Obama supporter)is sitting here. That's a no-no.


:blush:

[chimpymustgo]

24. Condolences to your wife. eom

[KAZ]

25. Hey, Jim's wife! Smack him one for me!

:)

[thevoiceofreason]

8. Unless Hillary starts getting 60% wins from here out, she'll trail popular vote too.

Improper hypothetical.

But, if you are "just saying," I think they should follow the lead of their congressional district (if a congressperson), their entire state (if a governor or other statewide elected official), or their beliefs if an otherwise unelected person (which I think hurts Obama more because there are so many in the Va., Md., and DC area)

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. The reason for the rule was to avoid another Carter or McGovern

faced with the current situation the choices become fuzzy.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Change your header. It is incorrect. I believe you have the time to edit still.....

Thank you.

Don't want you to stand accused of lacking integrity with the information you are providing, would you?

[tritsofme]

16. The second word of my title is "ends"

I'm not making a statement about the current situation.

[slick8790]

12. I'd say popular vote, but with a large caveat.

Depends on how "marked" the lead is in popular vote. Anything up to or under 500,000 votes is negligible at that point, where it'll probably be less than a quarter of a percent of the total. In that case i'd say delegates, as that proves a wider appeal. If it's almost even in both of those, I'd say total states won, since a broad appeal is important in a GE candidate.

[tritsofme]

23. Most states won is probably the least reliable stat of them all.

It is almost certain that McCain will win more states than the Democratic nominee, but whether or not he wins the GE is a coin flip.

[slick8790]

26. Agreed, it is the least reliable. But if it comes down to a virtual tie with all the others parts

i.e delegates, popular vote, I see nowhere else to look for to try and determine the voter's choice.

[DemBones DemBones]

15. If they want a Democratic president, they go with Hillary.

Barack is too inexperienced to win in the general election when more people will turn out, voters who care about experience.

It would be smart to run a Clinton/Obama ticket, unite the party and get the voters who care about experience. He then gets eight year's experience as VP and runs for president again in 2016. He'll only be 54 then and much more likely to beat a Republican than he is this year.

[Bucky]

17. It's not a reliable statistic either way.

States with primaries have higher per capita voter turnouts that states with caucuses. Some states restrict primary voting by party, some primaries are open. Alaska even allows you to crossover by race in the primaries!

It's too messed up to conclusively say anyone is actually leading by popular support.

[my3boyz]

18. She does not lead in the popular vote. Nice try though. nt

[tritsofme]

21. Who knows where it will all stand in August.

There are still some large states outstanding where Hillary could make up the popular vote deficit fairly easily.

[DadOf2LittleAngels]

19. Delegate count

Each state decides to caucus or primary and there are advantages to both!

[Uzybone]

22. Popular vote

regardless of who has the lead there.

[aquarius dawning]

27. Duel ticket.

er, I mean a dual ticket




Unless hillary is better with a pistol that is.