It’s Obama: Do the Math!

[pbca]

"The fat lady is about to begin her aria.

The Democratic nomination is all about the delegates, so here are the numbers prior to the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus on Tuesday Feb. 19:

Barack Obama has 1,116 pledged delegates—won in primaries and caucuses; Hillary Clinton has 989, with 2025 needed for nomination. A handful is pledged to others, such as John Edwards.

There are 18 more states and territories to yet to vote, with a total of 1,078 delegates to be selected.

Of these, three big ones—Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania with a total of 492 delegates—are believed to be Clinton’s “firewall.” Let’s assume she carries these strongly with an average of 56 percent and thus gains 276 more delegates to Obama’s 216. (If there are any surprises here they will be to Obama’s benefit as his momentum can seriously reduce the spread.)"

http://cdobs.com/archive/our-columns/its-obama-do-the-math775/">http://cdobs.com/archive/our-columns/its-obama-do-the-math775/

[rinsd]

1. Why does this assume continuing Obama momentum in the event he loses TX. OH & PA big to Clinton?

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. Better question:

Given Obama's momentum coming off of eight and, by next week, probably ten straight primary and caucus wins, why does Hillary still expect to win those three states by the margins she needs? That seems to be an unrealistic expectation, especially given the depth of Obama's organisation in all three states versus the total lack of organisation thus far on the part of the Clinton campaign.

[tandem5]

3. yeah I agree there is the potential for a clinton sweep on mar. 4th...

and that would certainly shake everything up in terms of perception.

[rinsd]

6. Its only potential at this point.

But the writer assumes she will win those states handily but also assumes states after that Obama will retain momentum.

Makes no sense.

[TheWraith]

5. He didn't lose his momentum after NH and NV. And why do you assume she's going to win those three?

For starters, PA isn't even until April. And Ohio and Texas could prove difficult with the myriad disasters her organization is facing.

[rinsd]

7. The author is assuming such.

[AtomicKitten]

4. Clinton's firewall goes poof.

[laconicsax]

8. The author of this is counting with a Diebold machine.

There are 4048 delegates, a candidate needs 2025 to win.

Barack Obama has 1,116 pledged delegates—won in primaries and caucuses; Hillary Clinton has 989, with 2025 needed for nomination. A handful is pledged to others, such as John Edwards.

Edwards has 26, so the subtotal is 2131 delegates

There are 18 more states and territories to yet to vote, with a total of 1,078 delegates to be selected.

Subtotal: 3209 delegates

Then there are the 795 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever.

Total: 4004 delegates

The author's total number of delegates is off by 44.