New Texas (small fish) poll-Clinton-49%-Obama 41%

[Tropics_Dude83]

Rasmussen coming tommorrow which will be more credible.

Anyway,

I found this at Dailykos and thought I'd pass it along:

There's been a dearth of new polling data from Texas. Tonight comes word of a small sampling of 400 likely Democratic voters by Public Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns on behalf of The Texas Credit Union League.

Clinton leads Obama 49 to 41.(+/-4.9%)

Ads are only now beginning to run in the state. Here is rural West Texas, Clinton is the only one running them on TV.

McCain leads Huckabee 45 to 41. Go Huckster! Texans know something about the value of lost causes.

For more details, check out the credit union league's Web site: http://www.tcul.coop/

[JackORoses]

1. well, by golly. Looks like the Eyes of Texas are upon Obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

3. Clinton being in TX on Potmac primary night speaks volumes to me

I think, unfortunately, that Ohio is locked up for her due to it's poor economic situation and the governor's endorsement. I predict a 58-42% Clinton Ohio win.

Texas, on the other hand, could very well go Obama.

[MadBadger]

5. I disagree with your Ohio Assessment

He is down 21 points without any of his momentum really figured in cuz the Q poll goes all the way back to feb 6th. I think he will lose, but by 4 points.

[JackORoses]

8. wait until NAFTA hits Hillary in Ohio, polls will change

if she's going to claim her husband's Presidency as experience, then she is going to be held to account for its great mistakes.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Starting pretty good for Obama.......

That's not going to be difficult to crack, I don't think.

[MadBadger]

4. Great Numbers for Obama, with two of the three days polled before Potomac.

[Tropics_Dude83]

6. Yeah- I like to think my political radar is good and...

My political radar has been screaming to me that Texas coud go Obama over the past few days:)

[MadBadger]

10. Here is another thing that heavily favors Obama:

• Those who plan on voting early are tilting towards Obama (46% to 42%) while Clinton leads 51% to 40% among voters who are waiting until Election Day to cast their vote

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

He can make work on those planning to vote on election day, while already locking down a four point lead in those voting early.

[Tatiana]

7. He can tie or win the total number of pledged delegates by keeping it close in the primary.

And then getting a substantial portion of the remaining 42 delegates allocated by the caucus.

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. What does HRC do if

She wins the Ohio/TX primaries but doesn't cut into Obama's delegate advantage that much? I guess she would soldier onto PA?

[Tatiana]

11. She will take this to the convention. I am sure of it. n/t

[hogwyld]

18. Her and Bubba will pull some kind of deal with the SD's

I'm sure a lot of cabinet posts and ambassadorships have already been promised as well as campaign help with either money and/or stumping. Ahhh, building that bridge to the 20th century...

[thoughtcrime1984]

12. He has 2 1/2 weeks to get his word out in person

The more people see of him, the better he does, generally.

[usregimechange]

13. Ah, she "may" need to win by more than 4 points...

[Tropics_Dude83]

14. He's doing well in Houston and some of the metro areas

According to this poll.

[Robbins]

15. Obama

I have maintained Texas Is the weaklink In the big 3 Hillary Is counting on to help stop Obama's Momentum,and a 8 point lead for her while he hasn't campaigned here yet Is good news.

[Hepburn]

16. From a HUGE double digit lead for Hillary...to this??

OUCHIES! Talk about tanking.

[Coexist]

17. Rasmussen has her +16 in Texas

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[RedEarth]

19. Obamanos!

[bigtree]

20. Public Opinion Strategies poll isn't credible for me

Public Opinion Strategies describes itself as a "Republican polling firm . . ." http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Public_Opinion_Strategies

That's enough for me.

[MadBadger]

24. And Rasmussen is best friends with Faux and never goes on any other network.

[bigtree]

25. both polls suck

[MadBadger]

27. All of em suck.

[not_too_L8]

21. Not if you count all the voters!

check out these new numbers from Texas...

Sorry for your loss

February 15, 2008 - Texas Primary Preferences

From..American Research Group, Inc.

Democrats TX

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.

[loveangelc]

22. I doubt it will be difficult to crack.

[NJSecularist]

23. It won't...

Obama will crack into this lead by the end of next week.

He's not starting in as much a hole as he is in Ohio.

[book_worm]

26. Actually of all the polls I find this one the most credible

One has Obama up (ARG) one has him way behind (RAS) but this one seems more likely--HRC has been campaigning in the state while Obama hasn't so I expect she would be ahead, but I don't think it's a blow out.