Quinnipiac in Florida: McCain 41%, Obama 39%, 12 undecided

[spongebobsquareshirt]

We need to win Florida. No doubt about that. Unless we will pick up many other red states from '04.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142

[thoughtcrime1984]

1. Or Ohio

I have no doubt that Obama could overcome a 2% deficit, if there even is a deficit. You never know about those polls.

[NMMatt]

5. Obama has yet to campaign

In either state. The one constant in this election has been Obama increasing in polls in every state in which he campaigned. Those are actually very promising baseline numbers if you ask me. I would have expected them to be lower, but this is a Democratic year and McCain has a serious problem with his own base.

[jackson_dem]

17. In the primaries. The general is a different beast

[NMMatt]

31. True

But the evidence from states in which he has campaigned say that the trend is likely to apply to the general election - i.e. Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire.

In any case, if Hillary is so electable, why can't she put away such a weak candidate as Obama :P.

[jackson_dem]

33. It would apply IF the rethugs didn't attack him during that period

And we know that won't happen. McCain has already begun attacking him. He has been able to do this unmolested because the msm has been positive on him. In the general the msm will favor the rethugs and air all the rethug attacks on him.

Hillary is matches up better with McCain. If we were going up against Romney then Obama may have been more electable but that is a hypothetical right now.

[UALRBSofL]

57. Those numbers look about right

Florida has a lot of military bases, McCain did his flight training in my town and Floridians love McCain for his military service.

[MadBadger]

2. We dont really desperately need Florida. Ohio yes.

[jackson_dem]

18. Florida is more important. It is the 4th biggest state, Ohio is 7th

Florida has 27 electoral votes and Ohio has 20. That is substantial. The difference between the two states is equivalent to Iowa, Oregon, or Oklahoma.

[MadBadger]

25. If we turn Ohio and hold everywhere else, we win

I think we have a much better chance of turning Ohio than Florida.

[jackson_dem]

29. Yes but why give up on Florida from the outset?

Obama runs as well in Florida as he does in Ohio in this poll and Clinton is only 1 point better in Ohio than in Pennsylvania.

A lot of folks tend to forget the other big swing state: Michigan (8th). We narrowly won it in 2000 and 2004. It has 17 electoral votes. If we keep the Kerry states, add Ohio, but lose Michigan we would be 15 electoral votes short of 270. We need to win three of the big four to win, as Kerry and Gore showed.

[MadBadger]

37. I'm just responding to the OPs doomsday sounding scenario

Where we MUST win Florida. I think Michigan has been so fucked up in terms of the economy, a dem will def win there, unless this primary things comes back and bites us in the ass big time. I also think we will turn some more states blue than we will lose to red. I think what Obama did in the Madison Speech is a great way to run. Tie McCain to Bush as much as possible to take away his Maverick image. It will help with the Indy vote.

[usregimechange]

3. Like this one? Nevada: Obama 50% McCain 38%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_general

[NMMatt]

7. See...

This is what happens when Obama campaigns in a state. If he can out poll McCain by 12% in Nevada and Colorado, I have no doubt he'll be strong vs. McCain in Ohio, PA, and FL once he hits the ground in those states.

[spongebobsquareshirt]

10. Well, yeah, but without losing Ohio to McCain (Quinnipiac: McCain 42%, Obama 40% in Ohio)

The point would be to win in several red states in order to make up for a Florida loss. But losing in Ohio would make the situation more complicated.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142

[MadBadger]

11. How bout Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico?

[jackson_dem]

19. Obama is winning VA in a poll?

I can see the other states but Virginia?

[MadBadger]

22. No, I havent seen a VA poll, but I really think it will go blue this year

[jackson_dem]

27. If it does it will be a national landslide

I don't see us taking it in a close election this year unless Webb or Warner is on the ticket. In eight years it should be blue.

[MadBadger]

32. Hey, Kaine could be on the ticket.

[jackson_dem]

35. He might but why not Warner?

Isn't Warner much more popular in Virginia? I know both are popular but Warner was astronomically popular when he was governor.

[MadBadger]

38. Isnt Warner running for Senator though? Not to mention, Kaine is a big supporter of Obama.

[jackson_dem]

50. Oh yeah. Forgot about that

Kaine would be a good choice too. Having a southerner would be good. My only concern with Obama-Kaine would be the experience issue. Biden is the ideal choice for Obama. Clinton-Kaine could work.

[MadBadger]

51. Biden is the ideal choice, but Ive always heard a no on Biden

[jackson_dem]

55. From Joe or folks in the Obama campaign?

[MadBadger]

56. Joe

[thoughtcrime1984]

12. 2% again, in a poll that is 8 1/2 months out

Obama seems to increase support as more people see him and hear him. I can't wait to see the contrast between McCain and Obama in a debate.

[jackson_dem]

21. "New" candidates suffer a lot in those 8 1/2 months

Ask Bush 00' (-11) and Kerry (-11)...

[NMMatt]

28. Two data points

Do not make a trend. What is interesting is that in every race Obama has run he has gone up in the polls as he campaigned.

[jackson_dem]

30. Three. Dukakis (-24)

Those are primaries. In the general new candidates always suffer as they get attacked and defined by the other party. Do you think Obama is immune from this? His negatives will go up more than McCain's because McCain is largely already defined. Obama is a blank sheet like Kerry was to most people.

The numbers are the swings. Dukakis didn't lose 24 but he went from a 17 point lead in August to a 7 point loss. Bush went from an 11 point lead at this time in 2000 to losing by half a million. Kerry went from 8 points up at this time to losing by 3 points (3 million).

[NMMatt]

34. The opposite happened with Clinton against Bush

You are simply selected data that makes your argument.

[jackson_dem]

36. The glove does not fit

That was when the economy tanked and Bush's Gulf War glow wore off. Similar things won't be happening this time. The top reason is because Obama won't be running against a sitting president like Bill did. Clinton benefitted by default from the decline in the incumbent's popularity, just like Reagan did against Carter.

[Independent-Voter]

46. Dukasis, like Kerry, had the personality of a wet bag. Nice, competent guys, but horrible candidtate

Those two are prime examples of how Democrats can screw up a wet dream. The GOP is handing this election to you. Please don't screw the pooch again and put HRC up.

[Alhena]

52. Yes, and Hillary has almost the exact same numbers in Ohio against McCain

left that part out, didn't you?

[woolldog]

4. Gore lost Florida

and still would've beaten Bush if he had been able to carry his home state of Tennessee. I think it's a good sign he's running close in Florida.

[MadBadger]

6. Except Gore won Florida

[CalGator]

14. damn jurassic retirees that voted for Buchanon

and let us not mention Mr. Nader :grr: Had the morons who thought "Gore is Bush light" in my home county of Alachua just voted for Gore instead of Nader we'd be trying to figure out who would be replacing Gore in 10 months.

[usregimechange]

20. According to Fox News, Gore lost Maryland as well...

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/maryland/

I could have swore he won.

[usregimechange]

8. Or this one? New Hampshire: McCain vs. Obama Rasmussen McCain 36, Obama 49

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/new_hampshire_2008_presidential_election

[jackson_dem]

24. NH and NV have 9 electoral votes. Florida and Ohio have 47

Does Obama lead in enough New Hampshire's and Nevada's to make up 47 electoral votes? Remember he would also have to pick up another 18 elsewhere from the 252 Kerry won. Does Obama have 65 electoral votes to win without Florida and Ohio?

[mckeown1128]

43. Better than Hillary who is LOSING Washington state. nt

[NMMatt]

9. The flip side is...

Name one state where Hillary was able to increase her poll number by campaigning. Of course you can't rule out the Obama effect, but it almost appears as if the more voters see her on the stump, the more they vote for the other guy :P.

[CalGator]

16. bzactly.

the more they hear her stump "screeches" the more they side with the other candidate. the more any voter hears Obama the more likely they are to vote for him and toss a few bones to his campaign.

[New Dawn]

13. We do not need to win Florida.

Picking up Ohio and Iowa (over 2004) will be enough.

[MadBadger]

15. Thats why I personally dont care if we do not seat their delegates

I dont think we need them.

[jackson_dem]

26. It's easier to win one state than two

It is a bad strategy to give up the fourth biggest state and its 27 electoral votes and then pin everything on two swing states.

[FrenchieCat]

23. Bwawaaaaa! McCain was all up and down that state and the governor

endorsed him.

Obama has yet to set foot there.

This is great!

Obama is a winner!

[bowens43]

39. Flordia isn't a 'must win' besides

Obama hasn't campaigned against McCain yet.

[cloudythescribbler]

40. Are there head to head polls with Obama v McCain in: NM, CO, MO, and/or LA?

I think that the Democrats this year have a good chance in each of those four. If Obama carries everything Gore carried, and then carries just a few other states (including NH), such as CO OR VA OR WV, he could have enough. If voters get it pounded through TV DAILY that McCain wants to stay the course in Iraq, burdening our beleaguered economy with TRILLIONS more in expenses, the Democrats might clean up this year.

Obama has suggested that he might be able to carry states such as Mississippi (pop 35% black) in the general. That would take a massive mobilization, but it is something to also look toward, including whatever empirical particulars we can discern now.

[oviedodem]

41. It is too red down here and the hispanic population basically follow

Mel Martinez like lemmings and don't realize how truly bad he is.

[UALRBSofL]

59. The governor Christ is very popular here also

And I'm sure he will be campaigning hard for McCain. And, as you said, Martinez has a lot of influence in south florida.

[apnu]

42. The poll is totally meaningless right now

Don't sweat it.

[theboss]

44. So...it's tied

It's pretty clear that Obama is Hell on Wheels on the campaign trail. Give me a tie in every state and six months to go, and I will take that bet.

I love how people here read polls as if they are static.

[mckeown1128]

45. You forgot to mention that Hillary is also 2 pts behind McCain. nt

[Robbins]

47. Florida

This Is actully good news.Obama hasn't set foot In Florida and yet Mccain Is only 2 points ahead of him.SOme claimed Obama would be the big loser In a general election yet he lost New Hampshere and Nevada yet would beat Mccain there.He Is narrowly ahead In Wisconsion,and leads In washington State,and Is 2 points behind In Florida and Ohio.In Most cases he does better than Hillary against Mccain.He would win Colorado(last won by Bill Clinton In 1992 and that was partly because of Perot.
Do I also have to mention Gore and Kerry lost Nevada)

[NoBorders]

48. Clinton fares no better there

Why did you omit that?

[Obamaniac]

49. Um these numbers are actually good for Obama

McCain just campaigned there (and won its primary), Obama has not even stepped foot in the state. Yet they are tied. Worse, McCain is at 41%.

Florida is in play again, which is more than could be said about 2004.

[David Zephyr]

53. Only Terry McAuliffe thinks Florida is critical to Democrats. And he's an idiot.

Democrats win without Florida by simply picking up either Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or or a mixture of any other two states that lean blue.

Gore's "loss" of Florida still only put Bush 1 electoral vote over Gore. That's how unnecessary Florida is to our math.

McAuliffe pissed away all our money into that unrewarding drain. We don't need Florida to win. We should contest it, but not build a winning math on it.

[NJSecularist]

54. Bill turned Florida blue almost 12 years ago.

A lot has changed. Florida has leaned red over the last decade.

Nominating Hillary still doesn't mean we will win Florida.

[JorgeTheGood]

58. Wait until Obama disenfranchise the

2 million voters in FL by not seating them ... He'll sink to near bottom in the FL polls and never see 30% again ...

From that point on ... the MSM will finish the job.

Ditto that for MI and then consider Obama will lose CA ...

Now, tell me just what is the plan for him winning the White House because it's apparently going over my heae how he does this by losing nearly every big state.

No -- this is not rhetorical.

[UALRBSofL]

63. Where did you come up with Obama will lose California?

I don't think either Obama or Hillary would lose California.

[JorgeTheGood]

64. I'll take that to mean ...

you don't spend much time in CA :)

[Thrill]

60. We don't need to win Florida.

[Alhena]

61. The same poll showed FL: McCain 44, Clinton 42

[miceelf]

62. Dude

McCain ALSO beats Clinton in that same poll. By the same margin. 42-40.

[JorgeTheGood]

65. McCain will clobber both of them ...

after Florida's delegates aren't seated. Can we agree to at least that much or is everyone in denial here ?

The blowback will be devastating.