A very important (but relatively unknown) fact about Texas...

[CoffeeCat]

In each Texas precinct--the number of delegates apportioned to those precincts
is determined by HOW MANY PEOPLE VOTED IN THAT PRECINCT in the last election.

Analysis of Texas reveals that the precincts in which African Americans live, have a greater
proportion of delegates--because there was a high turnout in those precincts (in the last
election) and large populations that have been established for years.

Furthermore, the precincts in which there is a high numbers of Hispanic voters---have had
sudden bursts in population. These precincts were not as populated during the last election.
Therefore, their designated number of delegates is small--much smaller compared to the African American
communities that have been established for many years.

If Obama continues to win most of the African American vote, and Hillary the majority of Hispanic
votes---the Texas demographics/delegate apportionment---significantly favors Obama.

[Tatiana]

1. Good point! As much as I love my latino brothers & sisters, they did not turn out

in the last election.

The African-American vote will be more significant. Plus the other 67 delegates that are appropriated after the primary, it looks like Obama really could pull this out.

[Frances]

11. Actually what the poster said was that the Latino communities

have grown so much since the last election that they will be under represented in the delegate count.

However, as another poster points out, that does not mean that Latinos will vote for Hillary in the same percentages in Texas that they did in California.

[Tatiana]

14. Texas has traditionally had 20-24% latinos eligible to vote.

The problem is that they do not get out and vote in the same proportion as the African-Americans do.

I say this as someone born and raised in Texas, and both an African-American and latina.

But I agree, there has been growth and this may consequently cause latinos to be underrepresented. But we still need to get past the teens in the number of latino voters who actually show up at the polls.

[TexasObserver]

15. True, True. Latinos outnumber blacks in Texas, and blacks vote Dem in higher percentages.

You are correct.

I think the state is 11% black, but blacks represented 21% of the vote for Dems in Texas last time. There's far more Hispanics, and I think they accounted for maybe 24% of the Dem votes last time.

But Hispanics are strongest in the southern most Senatorial Districts in the state, from Brownsville, McAllen, Eagle Pass, Laredo, to El Paso, with strong enclaves in San Antonio and Corpus Christi, as well. They have a senatorial district each in Houston and Austin they can probably control, as well. Hispanics should control about 7-8 of the senatorial districts of the 31 in play. But those districts all have about 4 delegates they'll produce to the national convention, so that's maybe 32 of the 126 delegates to be chosen in the process on March 4th. Because the two candidates (Obama, Hillary) will split the Latino vote, even if Hillary were to get an edge, it's not going to move the split on those 32 delegates much. A huge victory for Hillary in Latino controlled senate districts would be 20-12, or a gain of 8 net delegates for her.

All these numbers are off the top of my head, but I think they're pretty close.

[Tatiana]

23. I agree with your analysis. Obama needs to get out to South Texas. n/t

[TexasObserver]

2. You win the prize! For correctly and succinctly explaining a very important detail of Texas primary

I hope all will reread your post, as it is entirely accurate, both factually and analytically.

[CoffeeCat]

6. Wow, coming from a Texan...

...that means a lot.

My husband brought up this point last night, and I just reiterated what he said.
He heard it on NPR last night.

Our state, Iowa, has a similar system. Many of the areas that have experienced
exploding growth in the past two years, do not delegate counts that reflect the
population--because our delegate counts are based on the last election cycle.

It takes a while to catch up, doesn't it?

Thanks for your nice comments. It's good to know that I communicated that well, and you
would know...you are in Texas!

:)

[TexasObserver]

13. It's an important wrinkle, and rewards the precincts who turned out last time.

It's also a governor on the problem of Republicans trying to willfully alter the outcome of the process by favoring the weakest Democratic candidate. If a precinct is a Republican enclave, one that usually votes 75% Republican, suddenly has many of its Republicans crossing over to try to foul the election, the most they can do is foul that precinct's delegate process and maybe take a few delegates. They cannot and should not be able to get the representation that purely Democratic precincts have.

I worked in Tom Harkin's first senate campaign, and spent September and October 1984 on the campaign trail with him there. We came from behind to beat the puke, who was favored. Janssen? Jepssen? Can't remember his name now, but like Grassley, less than stellar. Tom is one of the good guys, and I've never regretted the time I spent helping him there.

I've never involved myself in presidential politics there, however, as I worry most about the US Senate and the House. I will support the nominee for president, but my focus is down ballot, where we get killed if we have the wrong top of the ticket. Hence, Obama is my choice, with Edwards before him, until he dropped out. If Hillary leads the ticket, our efforts for the House and Senate will be set back by 2-6 years.

You write posts worthy of reading, so I thought I'd share a little Iowa trip down memory lane. I can't believe it's been 24 race since Tom was in the House and running for the Senate.

[frazzled]

3. On the other hand, I understand there are more of those Latino precincts ...

so it will probably even out in the end.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. You suppose so?

Because Obama won Latinos last weekend.

[End Of The Road]

4. That's only part of it, though

A little over half of the dem delegates will be decided on March 4 by the process you describe. The remaining hundred or so get chosen by a whole different process that I don't fully understand. There's a description here:

http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=7854

[TexasObserver]

19. 67 more Texas delegates to the Denver get chosen in June at the State Convention

The 15% viability rule applies, which means all 67 will go to Obama or Hillary, as determined at the state convention. Those 67 delegates wil reflect the split we see among the delegates those two gain on March 4th, roughly an extrapolation of the same.

[underpants]

7. Very very interesting

thanks

Recommended

[Tarc]

8. One thing that Obama hopefuls seem to forget is the Ron Paul effect

The fruitbat is still running a campaign, and in is home base he will likely pull a significant number of the upper and middle white male vote away from Obama.

[loveangelc]

21. maybe but i kinda doubt it...

[Oskie]

9. As I stood in line to vote in '06 I heard a lot of talk about

Christian values...........and voting against gay marriage. That's what brought out a lot of people, black and white, in my part of Texas. I was so disappointed to hear people who have suffered discrimination for so long...now relishing the opportunity to inflict that on others. Mark Twain expresses my view now: "The more people I know, the better I like dogs."

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

10. But what about the so called youth vote? Is it happening?

[catagory5]

12. a little wrinkle in that info

you are not 'technically' bound to have to vote in that said district. So alot of those latinos can drift over to say a district that favors obama and vote for Clinton. Therefore, making that district with a good catch of delegates back to being favorable to Clinton.

[Amimnoch]

18. I believe the vote still goes to the district you are registered in.

In Texas, you can vote in any of the voting precincts, but I believe that when you check in, and they setup your machine, your vote still gets attributed to the district to which you are registered, not necessarily the one you are physically voting in.

[TexasObserver]

20. The youth vote is happening in Texas. It will take some districts away from Hillary.

The youth vote will push Obama ahead in several senatorial districts that Hillary would otherwise be expected to win. In the urban districts with universities or large youth populations, for example, in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and maybe Lubbock, Ft Worth, Nacogdoches, and Huntsville, to name a few. Wherever they can coalesce with black voters or urban whites under 50, they could tip the balance.

I expect Hillary to carry maybe 10-15 of the 31 senatorial districts, with Obama picking up 16-21 of those districts. His districts will see him create wider margins of victory, and therefore reap for him more delegates.

Hillary will be strongest in south Texas. Draw a line from El Paso to Corpus Christi, and that's her best area, below that line to the Rio Grande. Add some of the wide open areas of rural Texas, the ones with few young voters and almost no blacks, and she'll do OK there.

Obama will rule the cities.

[Amimnoch]

16. True, but also it seems republicans are pushing for Hillary.

I live in Katy, TX. The part of Katy right on the border of Houston, in Harris County. I have received 2 automated phone calls in the past week asking that if I'm a republican voter, that on March 4th I should vote for Hillary. I have also received calls for both the Senator Clinton, and Senator Obama campaigns. Remember, in Texas, there is no party registration, EVERY voter can vote in either (but not both) primaries.

For my OWN reasons I'm already supporting Senator Clinton for the primary (will happily support either candidate in the general though, I am not one of the ones that's willing to try to throw the election to McCain should "my" candidate not win the primary).

While I support Senator Clinton for the primary, I find it both deplorable, and disgusting that the GOP, or some Republican special interest group will attempt to interfere with our primary process.

[TexasObserver]

22. That is part of the Republican scheme, but there are 3 problems with it.

1. Because Republicans now control so many offices in Harris County, where Katy is located, if Republican voters pass up the Republican primary to vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary, they give up their ability to vote on all the contested Republican races. Many Republicans will not do that, because they want to have a say in all those R primary races.

2. Katy is a Republican stronghold, so the votes might skew the popular vote in Hillary's column, it won't likely affect the delegate process significantly, since Puke areas in the last election don't get nearly as much love in the delegate assignment process.

3. Most Texas pukes would rather die than vote for Hillary, and some will cross over just to vote against her. They hate her that much, and more than anything, they want to see her go down NOW.

I don't see the Republican cross over vote for Obama or Hill changing much in the Texas Democratic Primary delegate process, although it could show up in the popular numbers much more. It's one reason I hope Huckster sticks around. He'll draw the evangelics to the R primary, and they're the ones most likely to cross over to vote Hillary in the Dem primary to foul the Democratic nomination process, because that's the kind of seedy bastards they are.

[K Gardner]

17. I was trying to follow an explanation of this on AA the other day and simply couldn't. Thanks for

taking the time to write this up and post it. You're invaluable to this board, Two Sparkles ! K&R :hi: