Can someone explain to me why Clinton will win TX???

[LSK]

Isnt that ground zero for Joe Redneck? The same Joe Redneck who has been brainwashed by Rush for the past 15 years about how evil the Clintons are?????

Also isnt 1/3 of the delegates in Texas determined in a caucus?

What on earth in Texas is so magical that Clinton is favored?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Joe RedNeck Is Already In The GOPU

~

[JackORoses]

2. She won't. But she has to, so her 'Texas Inevitability' has become a Talking Point

[WilyWondr]

17. Thank you

:rofl:

She should avoid anything even implying inevitablility at this point.

[IndieLeft]

34. She inevitably will not.

[hell-bent]

77. Gee, the latest polls

don't support your conclusions. Rusmussen Clinton =16; InsiderAdvantage Clinton+7; TCUL/Hamilton Clinton +8 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html You Obama fanatics sure like to spin,right? "Read 'em and weep!"

[Hill_YesWeWill]

83. more like Obama fanatics like to work their butts off,

and with that comes results. There are lot here in Texas and if I were in Hillary's camp, I'd be worried. How many offices does Clinton have open again, what's the update on that?

[TexasObserver]

3. She won't win Texas. Another Clinton meme that is false, like most of her memes.

Read my posts on Texas in various threads and I explain there what is happening and will happen in Texas.

[MethuenProgressive]

4. Texas Democrats know bullshit when they see it. So of course they reject Obama.

It's really that simple.

[tyne]

7. They sure

were correct with Bush.

You knew that had to be coming.

[LSK]

10. .

:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. They Also Gave Us Lyndon Johnson, Ann Richards, And Ralph Yarborough

~

[LSK]

16. ah yes one of the biggest BULLSHIT acts ever

Thanks LBJ for the Gulf of Tonkin.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Believe Johnson Inherited The War

~

[LSK]

21. I used to believe in Santa Claus

But reality says the Gulf of Tonkin incident happened.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. "I used to believe in Santa Claus"

That explains your belief in Barack Obama...

Thank you for the clarification...

[LSK]

24. no actually the DLC has something to do with it

and IWR votes and Kyl/Lieberman and Corporate lobbyists....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Do You Know How Many DLCer's Have Endorsed Obama

They must see something they liked there...

Oh, what was Obama's vote on Kyl- Lieberman again?

[LSK]

32. no I do not, got a list???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. You Can Start With Arthur Davis, John Kerry, And Adam Smith

~

[LSK]

40. John Kerry quit the DLC long ago

Try to keep up with 2004's news..

:eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Thanks For Reminding Me... Ben Nelson Is DLC Too

http://www.nndb.com/group/269/000093987/



SCOREBOARD

[JackORoses]

9. what would a MethusinProgressive know about Texas?

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

13. Non-Texas Democrats don't have a clue then, is that how it works?

You know, all those Non-Texas Democrats who have been overwhelmingly voting for Obama?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

71. Aka, Why Texas Elected Chimp.

They know bullshit, alright.

[bagimin]

78. It really isn't

Obama is closing fast in the 2 latest polls..if not already leading.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

85. that is a very convincing argument, I'm going to remember that when I'm voting thanks nt

[Tarc]

5. Because they're a bit more practical than other parts of the country

We've had the usual suspects (ones who have already glommed on to this topic) parsing dubious ARG polls, diving into minutiae about individual districts and such. None of which changes the solid fact that Clinton is ahead in Texas, and has been consistently for quite a long time.

What do Oklahoma, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and California all have in common? Clinton victories. The Southwest simply isn't Obama territory.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. You Have A Lot Of Latinos And Working Class Yellow Dog Democrats In TX

She should do well there...

There just aren't enough folks earning over $200,000.00 a year in TX and college students to pull out a win...

Plus Hillary won't be outspent 3-1 there...

This is her Alamo except she's Santa Anna...

[LSK]

15. your kidding me right?

Texas has proportionally as many college students as any other state and I wouldnt put much stock into that myth about Lexus elites supporting Obama. I don't have a Lexus.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Just Watch

Just wacth PN, TX, and OH where a lot of blue collar Democrats get to vote... And Texas' huge Latino population has an impact...

[MADem]

28. No, that is NOT accurate. At all. It is the opposite of accurate, in fact

Texas falls FAR behind the others, I'm afraid. Not only NOT top tier, but bringing up the rear. In fact, in terms of population/degrees awarded they are number FORTY SIX.

Hardly proportional.

A cite, because I do: http://www.statemaster.com/graph/edu_pos_deg_awa_bac_percap-degrees-awarded-bachelors-per-capita

I don't know if they make it easy for out-of-state college students to vote in their elections, either. Perhaps a Texan with knowledge of the system can tell us. Their guidelines seem more geared to the TX student who is voting absentee from another state: http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/voter/studentvoters.shtml

This Rolling Stone article suggests that out-of-staters have hurdles when it comes to TX voting: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/5993354/mock_the_vote

[texas_indy]

37. nope, out-of-state students can easily vote in Texas primary.....

from the link you posted (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/5993354/mock_the_vote):

"Some registrars make it as easy as possible, simply asking students what they consider their primary address. Several states, including Pennsylvania, Texas and Michigan, ban most added scrutiny as a form of illegal discrimination."

They mention one case further down where the final decision was for the students.

I've attended schools in San Antonio and the DFW metroplex and never saw any issue with out-of-state students voting.

-----------------------------------

Also, Texas is the 3rd state with the most Postsecondary degrees awarded in the US after California and NY:
California: 362,090
NY: 248,623
Texas: 188,505

from your link above (http://www.statemaster.com/graph/edu_pos_deg_awa_tot-education-postsecondary-degrees-awarded-total):





GOBAMA!!

[MADem]

46. Uh, did you look at the FIRST link? Students are rare as HEN's TEETH in TX.

They are #46 on the list of number of college students as a percentage of population.

So there's not going to be any massive "college town" support for Obama that will make any difference in the results. They don't comprise "critical mass."

Boston has in excess of a college per square mile, and that didn't help "Gobama" in Massachusetts, either. They're way further UP the list than TX.

Don't count on the students. They're unlikely to be a factor.

Also, GHWB is going to endorse McCain in TX.

If the GOP contestants for local positions on the ballot don't slow down the "strategic voting" (where Texans vote for Obama in the primary, and McCain in the general) in TX, that endorsement just might.

[tammywammy]

50. "Students are rare as HEN's TEETH in TX. "

LOL I love people that don't live here telling everyone what Texas is like.

:rofl:

[MADem]

56. Tammy Wammy--I gave you a CITE. Try READING it. TX is 46th out of FIFTY states

in degrees awarded as a function of POPULATION.

You can't possibly be saying that Texas is full of retarded people who go to college but don't finish, are you? That's the ONLY way those numbers that I provided could be erroneous. Lots of students, but TOO STUPID to graduate?

No, you couldn't possibly mean that. But that's the only way your assertion would WORK, Tammy.

Now, you can :rofl: all you want, but as a percentage of population--which, if you'd follow the fucking thread instead of being determined to be a smartass, was the initial point made--Texas BRINGS UP THE REAR.

So, roll on the floor laughing about that, Tammy. Texas does NOT have a critical mass of students in relation to their population.

Sorry, Tammy. You're just wrong.

[TexasObserver]

57. Don't tell UT, A&M, SMU, Baylor, SFA, UH, Sam Houston, ACC, TSU, St Mary's, Texas Tech, TCU, etc.

Texas is full of universities, and if the students registered in time they will be able to vote.

Texas Universities are teeming with Obama support, off the chart. These kids will kick some ass in March.

Hen's teeth? No. Shark's teeth? Now you're talkin'!!

[XemaSab]

58. Obama won Boston

n/t

[texas_indy]

63. Texas has the 3rd largest number of college students in US and

2X what Massachusetts has. Yes, they will have an impact.

You really think an endorsement by * is going to have an impact here now?!? LOL

The repubs know McCain has it already and this may be the only chance they get to vote against HRC and make it count. Many would love nothing better than to know they helped bring HRC down.

Cross over voting has been common for many years down here and is counted on by local politicians.


GOBAMA!!

[okasha]

80. A lot of those students will be voting for Hillary.

Texas has a lot of first-generation college students whose mothers and fathers are in blue- and pink-collar positions and whose grandparents were immigrants who barely scraped a living out of the South Texas/Northern Mexico soil. Those students will be Hillary voters. It's the upscale kids in Austin, Houston, and Dallas that will be turning out for Obama.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

65. It's also important to note that the largest concentration of college students

Fall in areas with the most delegates to offer. Largely due to the fact that Democratic students have turned out to vote in both the 2004 presidential and the 2006 Texas gubernatorial elections. Giving even more weight to their upcoming votes in this 2008 primary.

[texas_indy]

26. Santa Anna lost Texas and the war, as will HRC ........... (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. He Lost Texas When He Got Another One Hundred Miles Or So Inland

Santa Anna didn't lose The Battle Of The Alamo...

[texas_indy]

39. He still lost Texas. The Alamo, along with the 340 men who got

capped at Goliad, aroused the rest of the Texan forces to make a fight at San Jacinto. So, while it is correct he "won" at the Alamo, it is also correct that the win helped to cause him to lose Texas and the war.

His advisors actually wanted him to leave a containment force at the Alamo and continue going for the main Texan forces instead of stopping, but he wanted to make an "example" of the Alamo.

As did Santa Anna, HRC will lose Texas and the war.

BTW, it was just over 200 more miles to San Jacinto from the Alamo......

GOBAMA!!

[ellisonz]

38. "This is her Alamo except she's Santa Anna..."

You know how that ended, right?

[tammywammy]

48. LOL

Santa Anna. You know he won the battle at the Alamo but lost the war. That'll be fine if Hillary's like Santa Anna, then Obama will win the "war."

[Independent-Voter]

25. All those states were on/before Super Tuesday

And Obama's been spanking HRC from coast to coast since then. It'll be close either way, but HRC sure as hell isn't going to win by the 60% that she needs.

[thoughtcrime1984]

6. It is assumed that most latinos will vote for Hillary

I do not think that is necessarily true, though. They are capable of independent thinking just like any other race.

[Araxen]

8. Because it's a state that "counts"

Well unless she loses then it won't count.

[XemaSab]

11. No, that's Oklahoma.

:popcorn:

[MADem]

20. They've got long and deep political roots in the TX Democratic party.

Remember Henry Cisneros? You know how Obama had such great "organization on the ground" in those caucus states? Well, it's already built in in TX for Clinton.

Your characterization of all Texans as "Joe Redneck" is a bit .... UNKIND. Molly Ivins and Ann Richards were proud Texans. LBJ, that bum who signed the Civil Rights legislation, was a Texan. Barbara Jordan was a Texan.

Be careful when you wave that broad brush about. I'm not a Texan, but I don't expect the goodly citizens of that state to carry the shame of a chimp who was born in ... Connecticut .... and educated in (gasp) ... Massachusetts ... just because he PRETENDS to be a Texas Pickup Cowboy (who is afraid of horses).

The GOP owns TX, though. John McCain will probably win it in NOV no matter who the Democratic nominee is. Even if it's a shared ticket (a fact I'm not betting on--just speculating about) McCain will probably still win.

[WolverineDG]

35. well

"Remember Henry Cisneros? You know how Obama had such great "organization on the ground" in those caucus states? Well, it's already built in in TX for Clinton."


Keep tellin' yourself that. I'm on the ground here in South Texas, & other than her campaign stops, I've seen neither hide nor hair of a campaign sign, bumpersticker, campaign office, etc.


dg

[MADem]

49. Hey, time will tell. We'll see how it shakes out soon enough. NT

[WolverineDG]

54. well personally

i think it's a bad sign when they make plans for campaign stops & don't inform the local party chair so that his only response when called by the media is "She is?"

Yes, this has happened. Twice already.

dg

[MADem]

59. Like I said, time will tell. NT

[WolverineDG]

67. Yes, it will

but she's only got 3 weeks to do it in. She only planned for an exhibition match in Texas & now has to play the Super Bowl. Whoops.

dg

[TexasObserver]

62. Clinton has NO ORGANIZATION IN TEXAS. Obama does.

That's why she's bringing in her Latino operative from Cali.

[WolverineDG]

68. Well, the locals have been meeting for some time

but nothing much happening, since like I said above, they were only planning for an exhibition game. It's not a good sign when the party chair is left out of the loop like that. Twice. Once? Okay. Twice? Um, not so much.

dg

[TexasObserver]

60. Henry Cisneros?! Talk about a non factor! He went down in flames.

If you're going to try to buy off your mistress, don't stop paying her, and don't lie about it.

[okasha]

81. I'm on the ground in South Texas, too,

and the onlypresidential primary stickers I've seen are Hillary's.

[high density]

23. Didn't you hear? Texas is the new Massachusetts

I guess?? Ask the Methuen progressive, he knows all about it.

[MADem]

29. That was unnecessarily snarky.

:eyes:

Why the hostility? Can't you discuss voting demographics and population subsets civilly, or must everything be a battle?

[high density]

36. Come on, people can dish it but they can't take it?

Sarcasm is fun.

[MADem]

41. Well, Methuen is a town in Massachusetts, but it doesn't have a wall around it.

You know, if I were to list the states and nations in the world where I've spent time, either briefly or substantially, the lists of where I HAVEN'T been would be far shorter.

You can't know if someone living in Spot A doesn't have a history in Spot B. I come from a multinational, United Colors of Benneton family, and I've got many friends in the same circumstance. Perhaps MP does as well. Or perhaps MP is a student of electoral issues in various states.

The best bet is to simply ask how they come by the information, rather than snarkily assume that because they're located in one place, they 'can't POSSIBLY know' about another locale. After all, we do have cars and planes and TV and books and Google, nowadays.

It's not like we have to rely on the old mare and the buckboard to get from one place to another, or word-of-mouth to obtain information anymore.

[high density]

53. The original comment in this thread that prompted my post

doesn't indicate that the author has any sort of special insight into Texas politics. My view of the matter certainly has no insight either, nor was it intended in that way.

[MADem]

61. My only point is that there's no evidence of lack of insight, either.

:shrug:

[Bok_Tukalo]

27. A Texas story

I live in Texas and have a friend that was going to vote for Huck in the Republican Primary. With him out, she wanted to vote for Obama (and will do so in the general election) but there are some local races that are important to her and in her part of the state (Weatherford) the Republican Primary IS the election.

[TexasObserver]

64. I am hearing that kind of story everywhere. Two indies who liked Romney, of all people, are going O

We forget that non party voters don't think like we do. They line candidates up without regard to party.

[JVS]

42. But, but, but.... Mexicans HATE black people

:sarcasm:

I'm being sarcastic, but sadly that seems to be the factor that many Clinton supporters hope will win TX for her.

[Alexander]

43. Looking at demographics, Texas will be close whoever wins.

I predict a margin no greater than 54%-46%, and it will probably be even closer than that.

[LSK]

47. and Hillary needs a big win to make up ground

[BringBigDogBack]

44. She won't.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

51. Byrd's dragging death, joe redneck, DeLay and george w * need more?

[tammywammy]

52. riiiight

All us Texans are just racist. :eyes:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

55. umm please refrain from putting words in my mouth....I didn't say "all" you did

[Lone_Star_Dem]

66. True, but this is the Democratic primary

While I expect some crossover voting, for the most part it's the good people of the state and not those types who vote in the Democratic primary. I swear to you, my local Democratic group doesn't have a single knuckle-dragging-hate filled-DeLay and bush supporting member. :D

The types you mentioned are currently arguing over if they'll make a stand for the "Huck" (who I expect to have a decent showing here even though he's DOA) or throw in their support behind McCain and stand with The Party. If not for so many local elections being on several of the ballots I think some would just as soon stay home than even have to make the choice. There's a lot of disillusioned Republicans around lately. I have a theory that being forced to view all the Hillary and Obama commentary/commercials on television is taking it's toll on them. Maybe we'll get lucky and some of their heads will explode before the primaries even get here. :P

[ElsewheresDaughter]

69. but it is an open primary and the RW knuckle draggers will crossover...I wish I was wrong....

I have family and friends that have said as much...they only really strong Dem areas are Austin and down around the corpis christi area no?

I really wish they were all closed primaries...like here in NY

[Lone_Star_Dem]

73. Some will cross over

Many are devoted to making a showing for Huckabee. Stupid as it is, he's got a following here. Yeah, they really are that dumb.

I'm not as convinced as I might have been in the past that we'll see a huge crossover voting for Clinton. Why? I don't think they believe that McCain can soundly defeat her.

Of the two Democratic candidates, she's the one they'd least like to see actually become POTUS. They despise her on some unreasonable level I don't understand. It's as if she's a direct spawn of Satan in their eyes.

While Austin and South Texas are our solidly blue regions. Dallas Democrats have been making huge gains in turning their city blue also. Dallas went by majority for the Democratic choice in the 2006 gubernatorial election and Both Houston and San Antonio were extremely close to also going Dem in that race. Both Houston and San Antonio went Republican by only 2% in those races. It was very close, very close indeed.

However turnout was horrible in 2006, something like 4%. If we could light a fire under our Dems for the primary and actually get them to the polls, anything is possible.

Which is why you'll never hear me at a local meet-up admitting that I don't expect huge crossover voting. I'm doing all I can to get as many voters to the polls on March 4th as possible. Which includes saying that if we don't get out in force we will lose the first chance we've had in my lifetime to actually take an active part in choosing our Democratic candidate for president. :P

[ElsewheresDaughter]

74. good on you and it does this heart good to hear about Dallas and even Houston leaning blue.Thanks

[WolverineDG]

79. State party officials are expecting a 3 times higher turnout

:wow:

Katy, bar the doors!

dg

[LucyParsons]

75. and

Barbara Jordan

Bill Moyers

Erykah Badu

Lucy Parsons

Ann Richards

John Hightower

Forest Whitaker

Sissy Farenthold

Dan Moody

Steve Earle

Sarah Weddington

Sarah T. Hughes

Janis Joplin

Audie Murphy

Quanah Parker

Debbie Allen

Mike Judge

Molly Ivins

Sandra Cisneros

Bessie Coleman

Walter Cronkite

Natalie Maines

Henry B. Gonzales

Buddy Holly



to name a few.

[TexasObserver]

76. you get extra points if you can name Sarah Weddington's ex husband, Mr. Weddington

He was a good guy, and they split amicably and remained friends. She kept last night for professional reasons, having become known under it.

[intaglio]

70. Well it MATTERS you see,

and because the states that Hillary wins are the only ones that matter; then if Texas matters, Hillary will win it. It's just a case of matter over mind - which shows that you must give no mind to Hillary unless you are going to vote for her. If you vote for Hillary you matter but have no mind whereas if you vote for Obama you have a mind but are voting for nothing that matters.

Is that clear?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

72. that's not what she means...it's a matter of OPEN or CLOSED Caucuses and Primaries

[intaglio]

86. Sorry forgot the smiley

:sarcasm:

[DiamondJay]

82. because of latinos and middle class whites

especially in the south where both groups would be even less likely to support Obama.

[WolverineDG]

84. don't bet the rent on that

:hi:

dg