Texas Credit Union poll: Clinton 49, Obama 41.

[Drunken Irishman]

Not sure if this one was posted, so I'll waste one of my 3 posts on it.

http://www.observer.com/2008/texas-polls-both-dem-and-g-o-p-race-pretty-close

It looks like that Rasmussen poll may be an outlier. If Obama is only down 8, that's great news for him.

[Araxen]

1. only 8 points?

This should be easy to make up and then some.

[Alhena]

12. A candidate needs 62.5% of the votes in a 4-delegate district ...

to avoid a 2-2 split in the delegates. A lot of Hillary's big Hispanic districts are 2-2 districts, so margin of victory means EVERYTHING as far as delegates in those districts are concerned.

Not really fair I have to admit, but those are the rules in Texas. Obama needs 62.5% in 4-delegate black districts as well, so it can work against him in certain cases. But the general approach favors the status quo, not making up a lot of delegates like Clinton needs to do.

[Alexander]

2. I always said Texas will be close - within 5%, I think.

One poll has Obama up 6 points, another has him down 8.

Texas appears to be too close to call, and may stay that way well into the night of March 4.

[Bicoastal]

5. Well, if this were March 3rd, I'd agree with you....

...but with several weeks to go, I think we'll see trends continue.

[Bicoastal]

3. It's getting kind of obvious at this point.

Without a huge turnaround, gaffe, or scandal, Obama's numbers are going to continue to go up. Hillary's are continuing to stay the same or drop.

[Johnny__Motown]

4. I believe this is within the margin or error (not that it matters) and again.....

Latino districts don't have as many delegates as other districts. (due to poor turn out in the last election)

The popular vote is important but the delegate split is what this is really about.

[nickn777]

6. We need a separate forum for polls!

[Vinca]

7. It doesn't count.

:rofl:

[DUyellow]

11. LOL

[thevoiceofreason]

8. And a couple of good analyses of this poll

With those numbers, Barack would have a 6 delegate lead (est) in the 126 delegates who will be picked according to the popular vote per senate district.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. So even if he loses, he wins.

This is why Clinton needs blow Obama out in Texas by a wide margin.

[Alhena]

13. That's my kind of election! (vbg)

[Renew Deal]

10. I think this is probably where it's at.

I doubt there's a 16 point lead or a lead for Obama.

[TexasObserver]

14. The Texas Credit Union League is a political player, using dubious pollsters.

They are players in Texas Politics, no different than any other BANKING interest. They used two groups of pollsters and took small polls in Texas. They used Public Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns, the former being a solidly Republican outfit, and the latter being tightly connected to some congressional types.

Bottom line: Not reliable. They're lobbyists.

Hint: smell the Hillary influence and spin.